PatsFaninAZ

Two minutes left on defense. Do you want to be up 3 or 4? I think the stats plainly have to favor being up by 4, but man is it more uncomfortable. When you're up 3, the other team has two concerns -- getting the game tied and not leaving you with much time. They'll take a td of course, but it's not the top priority. When they are up 4, they have 4 downs on every series to get 10 yards, often against a gassed defense. They also conserve time instead of letting the clock wind down, so they have more options.

Yesterday, once the Chargers got to the 35, they let the clock wind down in case they didn't get the first down so the Patriots wouldn't have time left. They also, of course, decided to kick on 4th and 2 from the 25 when they would have gone for it if they were down 4. The way they were going, converting a 4th and 2 was at least a 50/50 proposition.

Anyway, like I said I'm sure the stats don't back it up, but unless you have a lock down defense, being down 4 late with the other team having the ball stinks. I think the Giants and Colts have both beaten us in big games in this situation. It's not exactly the same principle, but it kind of reminds me of the situation against the Giants in the super bowl. If we hadn't converted on the 3d down on the Moss TD, we probably would have kicked an FG and tied. The Giants would have had to punt on 4th down instead of going for it and it would have been the Patriots with the chance for a game winning drive.

It just seems like most times when you're down 3 late, the other team plays for a FG unless the get a big play that puts them in a goal to go situation. Whereas when you're down 4 the other team plays for the win.

letekro

Is this a joke?

sieglo

With the Pats pass defense on third and fourth down, it might not be.

patchick

There's no question it affects strategy. In most cases I'd take the 3 as a no-brainer, but with a vertical offense like San Diego's that can eat up chunks of yardage in a hurry, there's something to be said for making them play conservatively.

mgteich

I presume that it is.

WhiteWesWelker88

wtf..... this is stupid

patchick

I think folks are laughing this off a little too easily. In the vast majority of cases you'd obviously prefer to be up 4. But I think it's a legitimate point that in the case of the Chargers, making them think conservatively, run down time and position themselves for the field goal worked to the Patriots' advantage.

PatsFaninAZ

It's not a joke, and I prefaced it by saying I'm sure the stats were in favor of the 4 point lead. The point of the post is that 2 minutes left up by 4 is a very precarious situation. The patriots have been knocked out of the playoffs twice in that very situation in recent years. Watching the GB/Vikings game last night was similar. Vikings lost, but they came a step away from winning. If they had been down 3, they would have kicked an FG earlier in the drive (or at least tried). GB would have held the ball at the end.

It's a way different vibe when your team is down 4 late than when it's down 3 and the other team is in the 2 minute offense.

Here's a way to think about the question -- Chargers have a 4th and 1.5 yards at the 25 yard line, one minute left in the game. You get to be in that position right now. Which would you rather have -- a 4 point lead or a 3 point lead? My answer is a 4 point lead. But it's really really close. With a 3 point lead in that situation, they almost always kick. So, you have multiple ways to win -- missed field goal, get the ball back with 1:00 left and win the game, win in OT. You will rarely lose in regulation in that situation. With a 4 point lead, losing in regulation is very firmly still on the table. Against a team that has had 340 yards passing and has scored 14 points in 6 minutes of clock time in the 4th quarter, it's hardly a no brainer. I was pretty relieved when the Chargers lined up for a field goal instead of going for it in that situation, and if they had been down 4, they go. If your answer to my question is you'd rather have the 4 point lead, you also must be saying that you would have preferred the Chargers to go for it on 4th down in that situation. I agree that's probably the higher percentage play for the Pats, but, still, as I said, it's not a no brainer and it's a different vibe.

makewayhomer

very interesting question. here is another I've been pondering lately.

is it harder to move the ball 80 yards on offense or 55 yards? tough one!

emoney_33

I'll take the 4 every single time.

PS: Down by 3 or 4, you play the first 3 downs just about the same. They only go crazy with big plays for the TD when the clock is really low. The first down from the 30/40 is still very valuable whether you are down by 3 or 4. And if they are in a situation where they have to take big play chances then it's easier to defend them.

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