aluminum seats

It's not ridiculous to talk about at all. It's being generated by what's on the field--a terrific team that has absolutely crushed the opposition, a team that clearly is on a mission to obliterate everything in its path. Add to that the fact that after today the team only has 2 road games--one of which is the last game of the season, and a few games that logically should present little to no challenge.

Ridiculous? No. It's fascinating what's happening. Bring it on.

__________________
"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."

RodRustsGhost

0% chance ... first of all there are very few things with that

but... anytime you play with zero, then you're going to get 0.

100 x 0 - 0

.50x .50 = .25

there is no addition in probability, it's all multiples.

you don't add and divide. You multiple.

Rainy-Day Patriot

I was thinking of only an undefeated regular season, but if we are talking about an undefeated season (which is all that really matters, right?), then we have 10 games to go.

That means we would have less than a 50% chance of going undefeated even if we had a 93% chance of winning each game.

Sheesh. I don't think we have a 93% chance of winning tonight's game!
Divisionality is a great equalizer in the NFL. I'm not sure if it's the familiarity or the emotions, but when division rivals play, the probability of winning is pulled toward 50% for the proverbially better team on paper.

In other words, I'm looking forward to the game. I'm not planning on humble pie for breakfast, but I'm not counting it out either.

Rainy-Day Patriot

I think we are on the same page here. I meant to be stating the obvious. That's why I couched the sentence with "Intuitively,..." When clearing up confusions (in his case my confusion), it's often helpful to invoke extreme example, hence, the zero.

Here's my question. Does using the average probability, as I do in my original attempt, always overestimate? Empirically, it seems to in the limited range under discussion.

kriskanos

The hype is not about what we have done but what it has been evident for a long time what we are capable of doing. To me and you its like talking about a no hitter in the fifth inning. We dont want to jinx it. But lets face it the media doesnt care about the Pats(especially our local scribes). If the Pats lose they will write columns saying the Pats are overrated when they are the raters. I root from week to week and build up a hate during the week of our next opponent. I go to the opponents forums and just read, so I'm not thinking 19-0 I'm thinking "Lets beat these sons of w@@@@s sunday.

RodThePat

I don't think it's ridiculous at all. The league has never seen such a gap between one team and the rest of it's competitors. These Patriots are good enough to warrant the "undefeated talk" 9 games into the season, considering the way in which they abused every oponent on the way.

Also bear in mind that this is the most successful team of the decade, with arguably the best coach and QB in the league and a whole bunch of veteran players that had a hand in building this ongoing dynasty. If the 89 49ers started the season 9-0 they would warrant the same talk. It's a normal reaction towards a never before seen level of dominance.

mcbee

I believe it does.

If you assume average win rate is x% (ie 90%)

then the total win rate for two games is (1-x)*(1-y), where x+y = 20%

So (1-x)*(1-.2+x) = win rate = x-.8x-x^2

taking the derivative to find min/maxes
d (win rate)/ dx = .2x -2x = 0
x = .1

So the maximum "total win %" occurs at x=.1

There is probably a more intuitive way to see this too.

Skree

Teams have a 1% chance of getting to 10-0
A .7% chance of going 11-0.

It isn't easy.

PatsFaninAZ

All this stats talk is too much. I think of it in baseball terms.

Can they get to 16-0 and give themselves a chance? It's like working on a no hitter with in the sixth inning, right now. That is, it's almost time to start getting excited. At the same time, though, you still need to get 10 or 11 more outs in a row. That's really hard to do. But it's actually something that happens fairly frequently -- much more frequently than a no hitter. So it's almost time to get excited.

Winning seven games in a row in the NFL is really hard, but it happens. Every year, you'll have a few teams that go on seven game streaks in the NFL.

That's what the Patriots need to do right now. They don't need to win 16 in a row. They need a seven game winning streak, just like that pitcher who needs 10 or 11 outs to close out the no no.

strongside

Just looking at Buffalo