JustWinBrady

Moss was never going to see the final 2 years of that contract because the raiders would have released him and the pats were not going to trade for him unless he restructured.

bubthegrub1

When I first heard that Randy was coming to Foxboro, I had my doubts. But after reading his interviews and looking at the finances, I was excited. No matter what his rap was, some team would have paid him more than $3 million were he cut by the Raiders. Yet he chose to take a huge pay cut. That shows he isn't greedy like some others are. If he either screwed up or didn't perform in NE, his price tag would have taken a huge hit. And he really wants to win. You can see his competitiveness by the way he reaches for those high passes. This is what he and Brady have in common, often termed "intangibles". I see the team making him a decent offer, and him signing quickly. Especially if they win the Super Bowl. Randy will want to return. He and Brady seem to have great chemistry. Manning and Harrison have played together for years. These two look almost as in synch after only nine games! As for those who mentioned advertising potential, you are right. There is a lot of money there. Another thing not brought up here is this. Moss has to be thinking about Canton. If he were to add 2 or 3 rings to his already impressive stats he'd be a lock. And after "turning over a new leaf" (in perception) and excelling on a team over time, this will help in the voters considerations. It might be wishful thinking, but I believe Randy will not want to go anywhere else. Someone mentioned the Colts. I also don't see Moss and Manning "hitting it off" and playing well together. I've seen Randy smiling wide on the sidelines, even when he's not getting all the balls. You never saw that in Oakland, or the latter Minnesota days.

RhodyPatriot

I put the odds at 90%. Think Randy loves this environment. He's thriving while playing with the best QB in football
yet this media shy guy is not the obsession of the local media and he's not forced to be the face of this franchise.
A perfect fit for Randy Moss!
I think Randy will be back because I think Randy wants to be back.

Patriot_in_NY

It's not all about playing for Brady. I think in BB, Moss has finally found a coach that understands him and that cannot be understated. Today, for a much wiser and thoughtful Moss, it all but guarantees (in my mind) that he will be with us a few more years.

He won't take being insulted by a low-ball offer, but I don't think the Patriots will offer him one. A deal will get done. We have a little money to play with, or we will at the end of the year.

__________________
Patroit_in_NY is now Patriot_in_ABQ

RussFrancis

Agreed. Just doing the math to point out that he'd gotten paid 56 of the $75mil on that deal in addition to other money he's made, so it was no longer about the money for him. But point taken.

RussFrancis

I shouldnt have suggested it was all about Brady. There's obviously more to this team than just him. I was more or less just simplifying his thinking. To stay with Brady and a championship team, or travel a less certain path. And youre dead on about he and Belichick. BB has definitely contributed to bringing out the best in him. For all of these reasons, I think he'll stay put.

bradmahn

Frankly, I'd go with a 67% chance of him returning, with it possibly getting up to 75%. I'm inclined to feel as if he really likes it here, knows what playing for a loser with lots of money is like (bad), and likes playing with Brady. He's obviously a tremendous talent and the FO knows this, which makes me much more confident that they will make a pretty substantial bid to retain his services. It's as low as 2/3 because it is all speculation seeing as how I don't know what Randy, Bill, Scott, and Tom actually think of the whole situation.

I think the prudent thing to do would be to offer him say about a four year deal (just in case he actually does lose a step) at approximately $7.5 mil per. But who knows what's gonna happen? Let's sit back, relax, and enjoy what he's doing now.

PatsFanInVa

Okay, the thing about the 6s? Come on dudes. Don't get superstitious.

Here's why I'm an optimist the Pats will pay on the order of the top bid for Randy (though I agree something in the 6s apy ain't gonna do it):

There's a BB/Pioli tenet from way back: When you find a talent who literally changes the way the game is played, you pay him, and you build around him. See Lawrence Taylor. Tom Brady. At the time (and probably again, soon), Richard Seymour.

The Pats are smart, not cheap. But part of the smartness part means figuring out the players who do not change the way the game is played, and paying them in a way that retains a large middle class.

There are more and more present-day Pats stars via free agency. This might be just the inevitable result of a team with some vet talent at highly paid positions (their cap distribution around 2001-2003 was much flatter, except the Milloys and Laws of the world.) Now we've got at least a half dozen guys in the bright-but-not-super- star price range. Meanwhile, cap inflation is providing us some relief. That's being thrown toward both the veteran add-ons and the middle class, but if you look at how the team is paid, there's an obvious widening of the gap. I don't think there was an original model of a big middle class and very few superstars; I think that was a misinterpreted affectation of (team) youth. But I also think we've succeeded because of quality depth in the past.

Here's what I see as the sort of zero sum connundrum for us: What are the choices, over, say, 5 years?

1) change the distribution of the $ pool available to WR versus other starting positions. Easy choice when you phrase it as Moss versus (your favorite other Pat not named Brady here). More difficult when you phrase it as $10M-$20M to find elsewhere every year, based on the increased emphasis on WRs in general.

2) Or, change the distribution of outlays to starters versus outlays to depth positions. So you ditch the principle of middle class quality depth.

3) Depend on huge success in the draft, which, after all, can not be relied on (but can be tried,) and let some name vets go. This is pretty much a synonym for thinning out elsewhere on the team, and possibily thinning out depth as well, or

4) Leverage the fact of ongoing rapid cap inflation, cashing in on the almost guaranteed huge (cap) money supply in general, and go on the spending spree earlier rather than later. After all, in an inflationary world, holding onto a dollar is a pretty sketchy proposition, whereas spending profligately may actually pay benefits, since every dollar today might be worth 75 cents tomorrow.

Taking number 4 would militate toward what will look like insanely irresponsible behavior, making some deals with the devil, and standing pat in later years. I honestly don't think (4) is the direction we're going, because the risk is loaded on the organization when you go down that road. You pay with the dollar now, knowing you're only paying 75 cents in tomorrow's money... but what if you gave today's dollars to a guy who can't stay healthy or get open anymore?

Well, we built in the "prove-it" years for all our new acquisitions but Welker, to cut down this risk. But now that they've proven it they're not the huge discount deals they'd be "sight unseen".

Is (4) in effect? Are we now about to bonus the hell out of Dante, pay (perhaps) $10+m/annum to Randy, negotiate Washington down a peg to keep him around?

Or have we got our answer as to "which will stick" (assuming the season continues something like it's begun)? In other words, is the WR corps the final answer to the question of "whither the Pats"?

I doubt we'd get objections this year. When we've fallen a peg or two more on D -- if that happens -- that might be another story. I take it we're all good with Asante leaving? How about one of the D-linemen we know and love, down the road? Or maybe Rosie Colvin or Mike Vrabel? Or maybe we go back to musical chairs at O-line, waiting to gel for a few games each season? Or is it a matter of depth erosion?

I know I keep running into guys selling me the NFL version of voodoo economics. But beyond the "discount" idea (which just is not in effect for most players past a certain marginal amount,) there is a zero-sum aspect to what the front office does.

Yes the pie is getting bigger, but it's not doubling or tripling (though our outlays at WR are.) In the microcosm, we got away with murder at the position for 2007... but in the macrocosm, it would cost us to keep this group together (even minus Washington, which is almost certain to happen, at least in terms of Washington-as-currently-structured.)

Again: nice problems to have. We have received immediate overwhelming impact especially from Randy and also from Wes. We are looking at gradual problems in association with future hits. These are something the FO is obviously much better at handling than we are.

I'm actually leaning toward the notion of Stallworth being gone in 2008, but again, who knows. Also the second half of the season would have a lot to do with that.

It's tempting to be psychotically attached to all 3 of the big guns, and maybe the team plans on keeping them all. It'll certainly make for an exciting team on offense, assuming the integrity of the O line allows plays to develop.

I'm just saying that there's no free lunch. If you liked that Pats D that didn't smother, didn't dominate, but just damn well beat everybody... well, maybe that's a nostalgic memory. We're going down the road to the old Colts model (early 2000s.) No we're not there yet, it's just where the structure of the team's headed.

Maybe it's the right time to go there. Likely, if we go, that's the calculation... but that's hard to do without some compunction.

PFnV

bubthegrub1

It just seems that Moss is much happier here than he's been anywhere in a long time. The team has embraced him, and BB seems to know how to deal with him. Winning also cures a lot of "attitude" problems. I'm sure he's been wise with his money, and is not worried about "feeding his family". He has a chance to be part of NFL history. And he seems to genuinely like and respect Brady. I'm sure his priorities are first a Super Bowl ring(s), and then Canton enshrinement. And the lure of a few extra bucks won't entice him, IMO. After all, what's an extra $2 million when you already have 56 (as one poster suggested)? I'd love to see him and Tom play another 5 years and retire together. Then they could both go into the hall together in 2017!

rtunstal

What some seem to forget is that this team is not turning into the colts of 2004. BB has a philosophy build a Defense first to stop teams and then build an Offense to put the points on the board. Remember he started with the D-line, then the O-line, now he is getting the wide-outs to go with his quarterback, last year he started on the offense side of the ball grabbing LM, CJ and DT. Therefore, more then likely this combination of Moss, Welker, CJ and probably DS will be here next year. Remember, This is BB he will not over pay some who he knows is not a game changer, but he will pay those that do, just look at Tom, Seymour, TW.