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Old 09-21-2010, 09:50 AM   #11
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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Originally Posted by upstater1 View Post
We're seeing exactly the opposite things. The replays on the two bad INTs to Moss showed other receivers double covered and Moss man-to-man (yes covered).

I'd put the emphasis on the running game here. 1 runs in the second half for 2.8 yards?

That lead to 3rd and longs that were not converted.

The offensive gameplan leaves much to be desired.
It's almost impossible to run against the Jets. It's like beating your head against the wall. The Ravens couldn't do it and they're built to run. I'm not saying we should totally abandon the run against them, but mix it up when to run the ball. We became extremely predictable against the Jets. Run on first down, throw on second and third down.

When the Jets switched from playing zone to start the game back to man after our two long drives, we should have utilized the screen a couple of times to offset their aggressiveness. We don't run enough screens anymore and we have a perfect TE to run them with now.
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Old 09-21-2010, 10:04 AM   #12
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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When the Jets switched from playing zone to start the game back to man after our two long drives, we should have utilized the screen a couple of times to offset their aggressiveness. We don't run enough screens anymore and we have a perfect TE to run them with now.
I kept waiting for screens to take advantage of the Jets over-aggressive defense and they never happened. Ugh.
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Old 09-21-2010, 10:12 AM   #13
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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It's almost impossible to run against the Jets. It's like beating your head against the wall. The Ravens couldn't do it and they're built to run. I'm not saying we should totally abandon the run against them, but mix it up when to run the ball. We became extremely predictable against the Jets. Run on first down, throw on second and third down.

When the Jets switched from playing zone to start the game back to man after our two long drives, we should have utilized the screen a couple of times to offset their aggressiveness. We don't run enough screens anymore and we have a perfect TE to run them with now.
I agree.

I think the hurry-up offense showed we could have success against the Jets, get Brady into rhythm.

Of course, as Reiss pointed out, for some reason the coaches didn't give Light help on Jason Taylor.

But still, I was screaming for the hurry-up offense in the 3rd qtr. and it didn't show up until 5 minutes left in the 4th.
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Old 09-21-2010, 11:17 AM   #14
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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We became extremely predictable against the Jets. Run on first down, throw on second and third down.
Except the numbers in the very first post of this thread refute this. In the 2nd half (where we had 0 points), we threw on 8 out of 12 first downs. In the first half, where we scored 2 touchdowns, we were more balanced on first down (8 pass, 7 run).

I don't think the predictability was the problem, it was the fact that, run or pass, we didn't get many yards on first down.
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Old 09-21-2010, 11:37 AM   #15
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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On the deflected pick to Moss they showed a wide open Brandon Tate in the middle of the field
It's not that Brady is throwing to Moss.
It's that Brady is throwing to Moss when Moss is covered while ignoring other guys who are wide open.
There was a day when Brady's favorite receiver was the open receiver. It was a quaint saying but it was TRUE and it made Tom Brady a HOF QB, a clutch 4th qtr QB, a feared QB at the end of the game.
That is no longer the case.

2007 and the presence of Randy Moss has changed the type of QB Tom Brady is and NOT for the better.

Agree on the playcalling. You don't run against the Jets and you really don't run on 1st down against the Jets. That puts the offense in 2nd/3rd and long situation. This veteran and supremely talented offense needs to smarten up all the way around. They can start with the playcalling.
So your position is that our QB is only a good QB when he has mediocre receivers and is a bad QB when he has great receivers? And your solution to that is to trade away a great receiver?

Watch football but stop thinking... please

(NOTE: Nothing you said has any truth to it)
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Last edited by emoney_33; 09-21-2010 at 11:37 AM..
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Old 09-21-2010, 11:39 AM   #16
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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Except the numbers in the very first post of this thread refute this. In the 2nd half (where we had 0 points), we threw on 8 out of 12 first downs. In the first half, where we scored 2 touchdowns, we were more balanced on first down (8 pass, 7 run).

I don't think the predictability was the problem, it was the fact that, run or pass, we didn't get many yards on first down.
It was the sequence of those first downs.

You can't just look at the stats.

For instnce, say you run on first down 3 straight times in the 3rd quarter, and you go 3 and out after third and long.

Then in the fourth quarter, you go into a hurry-up offense and get 5 first downs on one series.

Your stat book for the quarter will read: 3 runs on first down, 5 passes on first down.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:23 PM   #17
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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One question on the running game that is very significant, I think.

After they gained short yardage on a first down running play,how often did they still try to run the ball on second down.
Out of the 11 fist down runs, the Pats ran again on second four times.

On those four first down runs, here were the stats (second down run in parenthesis):

1: BJGE, 5 yds (BGJE, -4yds)*
2: BJGE, 3 yds (Faulk, 4 yds)**
3: BJGE, 7 yds (BJGE, 4 yds - 1st down)
4: Faulk, 8 yds (BJGE, 2yds - 1st down)

* On third down, Jets unnecessary roughness penalty against Welker gave Pats the first down.
** On third down, four yard pass to Moss for first down.

The Pats had 5.8 YPC on these plays, and only then did they follow it up with another run (not so good 1.5 YPC). However, positive yardage was gained on three of four plays, and two first downs came from second down runs that followed first down runs.

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And, how many times did they go to the shotgun, as opposed to under center, when they had third and short? (2-3 yards)
Good question and one which I would like to know the answer to as well.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:25 PM   #18
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That was one of the worse second halfs i have seen from this team.This team looked dazed and confuse.I wonder if they got too overconfident and the jets just smacked them in the mouth.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:26 PM   #19
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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By the way, with regards to this running thing - one of the reasons you run is to set up the play action pass. I don't remember the Pats throwing even 1 play action. Which is kind of curious and make me thing they would have been better off running draws from the shotgun.
This was my main point of contention as well. I was hoping to see the payoff from these first down runs with a nice play action.
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Old 09-21-2010, 02:19 PM   #20
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Default Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady

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This was my main point of contention as well. I was hoping to see the payoff from these first down runs with a nice play action.
In all fairness, I the numbers would have probably looked very different if Fred Taylor's 50 yard run hadn't been called back because of an illegal formation.

I don't have a problem with them running. I have somewhat of a problem with the blocking schemes - they try too many reach blocks. I don't think reach blocks work well against a penetrating team like the Jets.

In any case, to me this thread (and game) is all about Brady and his poor 2nd half.
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