Keys to the SuperBowl 41.5 - A Colt Fan perspective! - Page 4 - New England Patriots Forums

ATippett56 · 10-31-2007, 09:25 AM

How about some key matchups instead?

Richard Seymour vs Tony Ugoh
Dwight Freeney vs Matt Light
Reggie Wayne vs Ellis Hobbs
Randy Moss vs Kelvin Hayden
Dallas Clark vs Rodney Harrison and/or Adalius Thomas
Wes Welker vs some Colts stiff

ATippett56 · 10-31-2007, 09:51 AM

Just a reminder of how good the Patriots offense is ...........

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...er_Rating.html

"New England's statistical prision rape of the rest of the NFL is evident here in Defensive Passer Rating.

The Redskins entered Sunday's game against the Patriots with the best pass defense in football, as indicated by their 67.7 Defensive Passer Rating, No. 1 in the league.

But after one game being shredded by Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots passing game, Washington plummeted 10 whole spots to No. 11, and nearly 10 whole rating points to 76.2."

COLT FAN · 10-31-2007, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metaphors

Agree with you but that is hard to quantify for the Pats. Traditionally that has been easier for the Colts. Everyone knows what they do on offense and defense, but they do it anyway and win the matchups.

You can evaluate the matchup of Hobbs vs. Wayne, but that doesn't take into account zone or combo coverages. You can evaluate Moss vs. M.Jackson but I would doubt you will see them on an island at all during the game.

I think stats give a reasonable indication of if a team can just rely on matchups to win the game. The 3rd down stats tell me that neither defense should rely on winning matchups to be successful. If Brady and Manning can see the field effectively and get a good read on where the defense is, there may not be any punts or interceptions for either team.

Assuming that bogus penalties are not a factor (my big worry), I think that whichever defense disguises itself (coverages, blitzes, etc.) the best will likely win the game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATippett56

How about some key matchups instead?

Richard Seymour vs Tony Ugoh
Dwight Freeney vs Matt Light
Reggie Wayne vs Ellis Hobbs
Randy Moss vs Kelvin Hayden
Dallas Clark vs Rodney Harrison and/or Adalius Thomas
Wes Welker vs some Colts stiff

ATippett56 got it. Stats are fine only & only if both teams have played their equals. In my eyes neither Colts nor Pats have met their match yet! SD is playing good now but when they played Pats in the 2nd week they were deers on headlight. Same for some teams for Colts; Saints were great offense last season but they suxed when we played them. So all these stats have been (including success on 3rd down which is a crucial stat) have been built up teams which don't match up well with Colts or Pats. What Pats did is they played their game at a high level. Which I can see from the score board. Colts also if you watch the game tape (not just the score board) can see won games easily even without 5 starters. Why? Becuase both of our teams played teams that were not in our class. That is all. These stats for both teams are coming from playing against JV teams (sorry I am not insulting other teams but that is what it is right now) or teams (SD & SAINTS) that played like JV when we played them. I betcha, when Colts play the Chargers next week, they will be a totally different team than in week 2. Chargers have improved much since week 2.

Also there have been additions & subtractions on both sides. A fan of the team would always argue that their changes are great and the other team lost more than what they gained. I say "That is why they play the game".

Getcha Popcorn ready

Penalties (not the Zebra induced ones) will be crucial in this game. Any yards lost for offense for both teams would put great pressure on the QB since both defenses are good.

p.s : I too hope the Zebra don't decide the game.

COLT FAN · 10-31-2007, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATippett56

Just a reminder of how good the Patriots offense is ...........

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...er_Rating.html

"New England's statistical prision rape of the rest of the NFL is evident here in Defensive Passer Rating.

The Redskins entered Sunday's game against the Patriots with the best pass defense in football, as indicated by their 67.7 Defensive Passer Rating, No. 1 in the league.

But after one game being shredded by Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots passing game, Washington plummeted 10 whole spots to No. 11, and nearly 10 whole rating points to 76.2."

Redskins defensive stats prior to Pats game came from playing whom? I ask?
Yes, Skins have a good defense, but their offense sux. When they play a great team like Pats or Colts (or even Giants or Boys) they would give a lot of yards and scores.

Go Ahead & keep fooling yourself with those stats. I am not going to. That is your privelage. Read my previous post for why I think those stats are meaningless for this game.

bishbash · 10-31-2007, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COLT FAN

I say now itself the team that wins this Sunday is clearly the #1 team in the NFL and barring injuries will win the SB42.

I will respectfully disagree w/ this statement. If the Pats should somehow lose this game, I believe the only reason will be that they started hearing the whispers that they might be one of the best teams of all time and lost focus. A loss to the Colts in this game would ensure a refocusing for the rest of the season, including a butt-kicking of the Colts in the playoffs, which is the only win over the Colt's I really care about.

bishbash · 10-31-2007, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedog007

My hats off to the Cheats, they look awesome this year and if they actually do win the SuperBowl it would be their first win without cheating to do it.

(This silly/disrespectful post encapsulates BB & company's reasoning for running up any and all scores)

COLT FAN · 10-31-2007, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bishbash

I will respectfully disagree w/ this statement. If the Pats should somehow lose this game, I believe the only reason will be that they started hearing the whispers that they might be one of the best teams of all time and lost focus. A loss to the Colts in this game would ensure a refocusing for the rest of the season, including a butt-kicking of the Colts in the playoffs, which is the only win over the Colt's I really care about.

It is quite possible the losing team this sunday can win the SB. what happens in my opinion is the team that wins this sunday (assuming it gets HFA ofcourse; since up by 1.5 games) is its chances of winning in the playoffs goes up and about 2/3rd chance. That is all. The losing team still has 1/3 chance to win in playoffs.

What you said for PATS could happen for Colts also. Also when you started "respectfully disagree" how you ended it with "Bxxxx Kxxxx"

Metaphors · 10-31-2007, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COLT FAN

Go Ahead & keep fooling yourself with those stats. I am not going to. That is your privelage. Read my previous post for why I think those stats are meaningless for this game.

Stats can be misleading, but are not meaningless for any game. I find your exercise to be fairly silly. "Freeney vs. Light, edge Colts" I would agree if Light were left alone with Freeney and Brady took a 7 step drop, Freeney would win that matchup. I know that, you know that, Belichick knows that. Why on earth would he allow that matchup to occur? He wouldn't.

You can play that game with every matchup. Think Bethea will be providing help over the top to Haydin and Jackson with Moss? Think Keiaho will be shading Welker on slant routes?

Matchups don't determine the outcome of the game...they determine the gameplan. Steve Smith would wipe the floor with any DB the Colts have. Did he last week? Nope. Why? Because that matchup never happened.

Denzera · 10-31-2007, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metaphors

Pats 3rd down offense = 49% (#3)
Colts 3rd down defense = 46% (#27)

Colts 3rd down offense = 54% (#1)
Pats 3rd down defense = 29% (#1)

If the Colts D can't get off the field, they can't win. And bear in mind that percentage is against some pathetic offenses.

Hey, how about someone going through and calculating 3rd-down to 1st-down ratio? i.e., get a sense of how often each offense has to go to a 3rd down to pick up a new 1st, or how often a defense can get to a 3rd down. These numbers are meaningless without a sense of how frequently a 3rd down stop comes into play.

each box score has # of first downs and stats on 3rd down conversions, so getting a stat for "% of Down sets that go to a 3rd Down" probably wouldn't be that hard.

Metaphors · 10-31-2007, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedog007

BishBash, in addition to the quote you have about SPYGATE at the end of your e-mails, why don't you add a quote by one of the thousands of sportswriters who say that the Patriots will forever be tainted..even if they went all the way this year....spygate will always follow your team.

Why? Because of your arrogant coach's (bill stealichick) total self-absorption, disregard for the game and for YOU, a fan who has the right to not to have your coach, screw it up for you. Mr. Kraft is a first class owner with a no class coach...who cheats.

1) "Thousands of sportswriters"???? As long as you are freaking out, you might as well go for Billions (it is a bigger number)

2) You think you understand Belichick's motivations and value-system?

3) You think you understand what I (or any Pats fan) think of Belichick?

Why write this stuff? When the reasonable fans of the opposing team post to this board and wonder why they get flamed for no apparent reason, that should be a subject you can post intelligently about.