09-19-2010, 11:19 AM
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#52
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 9,112
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Re: Vegas Line Makes Me a Little Nervous
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Originally Posted by GostkowSKI
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Sorry, but I just don't buy that reference as some sort of comprehensive look at how all the action across the entire spectrum is being placed. Your source is just an offshore sportsbook, no more, no less - and not even a reputable one. (I also love how they have a section where they try and sell you experts' picks - pretty funny when the website that is taking your action tries to steer you towards buying picks from so-called "experts").
In order for the sportsbooks to be guaranteed a profit, they need the action to be split evenly between the two teams with a deviation no greater than roughly 2%. According to your link, of this weekend's 32 plays on the board (each game has a side and a total and I am ignoring the money line) only 3 plays fall within the 48% to 52% range. There are, however, 16 plays with >70% of the action on one side, 7 of which are >80%.
So if those stats are accurate, there are fully 16 plays where the casinos could take a serious bath, and only 3 plays where they are guaranteed a profit. That's just not how it works and not how they built all them hotels in the desert.
Last edited by Wolfpack; 09-19-2010 at 11:21 AM..
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