Va_Pats_Fan

assumptions I made when doing these calcs..

- next year will be a career year for TB.
- Tom will meet or exceed his "best numbers"

His most attempts is 601 in 2002. I used this number. His highest completion rate is 63.9 in 2001, so I used that. This gives Toms passing numbers as

601 attempts and 384 completions.

His best yards per attempt came in 2004 @ 7.79. I increased this by a mere 5% to account for having not just 1, but 2 deep threats. Using his gross TDs per yard and gross ints per yard, and applying all the calculations I came up with these numbers

601 attempts
384 completions
8.18 YPA
4915 yards
34 TDs
18 ints.


if his YPA goes up 10%, the total yards goes to 5150!!!!!!!!

two questions for everyone.

If TB was to break a regular season QB record this year

what record do you think it would be?
what record do you wish it could be?

PonyExpress

My prediction...
Brady: 4100 yards 30 TDs 12 INT 65% comp rate

PATRIOT64

4,900 yards? - What was in your cheerios today?

Thats a homer dream if I ever saw one - please get real
Good WR corps or not,we are actually going to use Maroney and Morris more than just a couple of touches a game.

NO WAY in Patriot heaven is Brady going to even sniff 4,900 - In reality 4,100-4,200 at max is realistic,Anymore is dreamland - He is NOT Manning nor do the Pats plan heavily padded passing games weekly like the Colts.

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Va_Pats_Fan

hey, I just plugged in the numbers from his career, and thats what came out.

Tell me, how do you know what the pats plan? you have no more idea than me, or anyone else

JoeSixPat

If everything goes as Belichick intends Brady will only have an average to above average year.

If the running game and defense somehow falter, look for big numbers from Brady and his deep WR arsenal and an all time career high year.

Putting the ball in the air - especially throwing it deep - is always a high risk high reward scenario. And generally BB hates high risk.

Last year's deep threat was a joke, with only 2 passes over 40 yards the entire season. There will be many more than that this year but the intent is to open up the middle of the field for the higher percentage, lower risk mid to short range pass.

Stallworth will be an all purpose WR, Welker will catch a lot of 10 yd passes and Moss's major impact will be as a 6' 4" endzone option.

With what at worst should be an equal balance in the running game - and at best should see the RBs take the ball the majority of times (once we have a nice lead) while the Defense stymies the opposing offense, the game plan for next season is most definately NOT to see Brady have to strap the team onto his franchise shoulder.

So my hope is that Brady does NOT have a career year allowing us to secure SB ring #4.

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richpats

3800 yards
30 TDs
11 INT's
63% completion

PATRIOT64

Belichick in his coaching career has rarily relied on heavy passing games,He has and always did prefer very close to 50-50 run pass games depending on how far his team was ahead or behind..This is not Don Coryell's team nor is it Tony Dungy's team

If Brady passes for 4,900 yards or more it means one thing,The teams running game is non existent and that spells doom in the playoffs or SB if we can even get to the playoffs with no running game,I don't think your argument is realistic except in your dreams.

Maroney,Morris,Faulk ect if healthy can combine for at least 1,900-2,000 yards of rushing offense as well.

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BB_dynasty

The only way this happens is if Maroney is injured.

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HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

This will be the year that Brady breaks the 30 TD mark and eclipses 4,000 passing yards. His completion % will be somewhere around 60-63 percent. There will be a lot of deep balls thrown this year off of playaction. This is the best and most talented group of WR's Brady has had by far and there is no reason to think that Brady can't do this.

PatsFanInVa

VaPats has it right. You can not just extrapolate from the stats.

The classic example is what happens to poor Tommy's stats, if the Pats get out to a 10 game lead in, say, 12 games, and are able to keep their own D off the field and the opposing D on the field.

I'd go a little north of Pony on the int.s. I'd be a pessimist and throw on a couple more TDs to his total. Why a "pessimist?" Because that would mean that pounding the ball around the goal line is, in fact, a lower percentage bet without Corey. And I'd go closer to a 2-1 TD to int. percentage, based on his career numbers. That's almost always been his ratio. One could make the argument that Stallworth, Welker, and Moss would rip the ball away from the competition more effectively, or give him better leads to throw to. I think he stays at about a 2-1 ratio, but I took it down a notch (definitely all the way down to 12 int.s Split the difference). So if I may:

About 4,000 passing (still perhaps high)
32 TDs
14 int.

Basically, in the range of the other guys here. Like I say, I think the 32 TDs is high, and dependent on the close-in rushing game.

that 4900 yards is plain old wacky, and really just shows how these stats don't reflect everything, and don't scale well when situations change.

PFnV

PS, someone remember to drag out all our old predictions after the season!