To abbreviate things a little, I am not going to explain what everything means, but if you don't understand something, please check out the Jet and Charger analysis threads
here and
here. The Jet one will go into more detail of how the scores are totalled.
FYI, all numbers include the playoff games. Colt fans should note that NE gets the worst of the trends, as the 35-0 thrashing of GB and the 40-7 beat down of Houston are the games that fall off just prior to the 8 and 4 week trend figures repsectively. The Colts do lose the 34-16 smoking of Cincy in their 4 week numbers (not as big of a loss as NE's, though) but their 8 week number starts with the 45-21 humiliation of Philly.
Here are the details:
Indy Season
PF - 25.8 vs. 20.1 ~ +5.7
PA - 20.8 vs. 21 ~ +0.2
Total ~ 5.9
NE Season
PF - 24.8 vs. 20 ~ +4.8
PA - 15.2 vs. 21.3 ~ +6.1
Total ~ 10.9
* Indy was actually in the red defensively prior to the playoffs.
Indy Home
PF - 26.3 vs. 20.7 ~ +5.6
PA - 17.3 vs. 20.4 ~ +3.1
Total ~ 8.7
NE Away
PF - 27.2 vs. 20.1 ~ +7.1
PA - 14.3 vs. 21 ~ +6.7
Total ~ 13.8
* Not only does NE win this matchup (against a team that has gone 9-0 at home) but they have outperformed then in each category sizably, no matter how you match up the numbers.
Indy Last 8 Games
PF - 25.3 vs. 19.5 ~ +5.8
PA - 20.5 vs. 21 ~ +.5
Total ~ 6.3
NE last 8 games
PF - 26.3 vs. 20.1 ~ +6.2
PA - 17.9 vs. 21.6 ~ +3.7
Total ~ 9.9
* Notable is the consistency of Indy's offense. In the first three categories they are +5.7, +5.6 and +5.8. This is why I believe that NE will face an offense that runs a little more smoothly than how they have looked in the playoffs so far.
Indy Last 4 Games
PF - 22.3 vs. 18.2 ~ +4.1
PA - 15.8 vs. 19 ~ +3.2
Total ~ 7.3
NE Last 4 Games
PF - 31.3 vs. 19.9 ~ + 11.4
PA - 20.3 vs. 23.5 ~ +3.2
Total ~ 14.6
* Interestingly enough, Indy's and NE's defenses have scored at near equivalent levels over the past 4 games. As you will see, Indy's is based totally on the past two games weighing down the numbers. NE's is largely because of a fluke TD vs. the Jags and a dumb punt against TN. Minus those two plays, NE is +6.8 on defense in the last 4 games. The curse of small sample size rears its ugly head.
Indy in the Playoffs
PF - 19 vs. 16.2 ~ +2.8
PA - 7 vs. 21.4 ~ +14.4
Total ~ 17.2
NE in the Playoffs
PF - 30.5 vs. 18.7 ~ +11.8
PA - 18.5 vs. 25.3 ~ +6.8
Total ~ 18.6
* Indy pulls this score up enough to finally be respectably close, but for better or worse, it is almost entirely because of a defense that has been playing out of its mind. As I said before, I expect to see Indy move the ball on NE. Given the choice, I usually side with the long term and, aside from the past two games, Indy's offense is remarkably consistent. However, NE is the first test for Indy's defense this entire postseason. Very much like the 2003 Indy team ran roughshod over two helpless defenses, amassing some amazing numbers and looking unstoppable, this team has not been tested defensively. NE has significantly more horses and significantly more brains than either KC or Baltimore.
By comparison, NE's defense has been nearly as consistent as Indy's offense and their offensive improvement has been steady, unlike Indy's remarakable defensive surge, indicating that it is more likely that NE maintains their improved offensive pace than Indy's defensive.
Since we are all very familiar with Indy (and they are with us) I don't need to get into any great detail (other than what I just did, of course
Aside from all of these numbers, I like NE's chances for a couple reasons:
1) Indy's defensive improvement completely surprised KC and Baltimore clearly treated it as a fluke. NE will prepare for it better than either team did.
2) NE already faced Indy with Bob Sanders. I personally believe that Indy played just as well defensively in that game as they have in the playoffs. They have just had the good fortune of matching up against an intellectually impotent team and a team that did not have the horses to take advantage of Indy's weakness.
3) Whenever NE plays poorly against a team that also plays a very good game (like this year's Indy game and 2004 Pitt - even 2005 Denver works here) they learn from their mistakes and play significantly better the second time. Most often the other team plays the same way thinking that it was good enough last time.
4) Manning played quite possibly the best game that I have seen him play in the last NE game. NE dominated the LOS and Manning still made a couple plays on the run and with a man in his face. Even if I expect him to play better than last week, it is hard to imagine him doing better than last time. Harrison and Wayne also played very well. By comparison, Brady was off all game and NE's WRs were terrible. In spite of all of this, it was still a competitive game.
5) NE seems to adjust better with a time to plan than they do when a key guy goes out mid game. I fully expect NE to have a better plan of attack on Indy's receivers than they did last time. It seemed to me that they had visions of Javon Walker schooling James Sanders dancing in their heads.
I welcome your thoughts.
Here we go again. Points analysis for Colts/NE.
Linear Mode
