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I've been reading through the 2010 Football Outsiders Almanac, and they're pretty high on the Pats this year. The mean projections have the Pats as #3 in the NFL behind the Ravens and Colts:
2010 Mean Projection: 10.3 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 0%
Loserville (4-6): 4%
Mediocrity (7-8): 18%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 33%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 45%
Projected Average Opponent: 4.5% (7th)
the highest mean projection is 11.6: basically, the idea is that everyone who finishes with over 11 wins outperformed expectations, so 10.3 is quite good as a baseline. The closest teams behind us are the Steelers (9.9), Jets (9.8), Falcons (9.6), and Packers (9.4).
I know that there's a lot of debate on this board for how applicable these types of statistics really are, and I think that this year's Patriots team represents an ideal data point. While most reports that you'll read will speak of the Pats as an above average team, FO's projections place the Pats solidly in the NFL elite (this was before the Ty Warren injury news, I have to wonder if that changes anything).
Personally, I'm pumped. I'm a huge FO fan, and after reading this writeup, it reinforces a lot of what I already thought about the Pats, and also has me rethinking the Jets (a little more worried about them) and the Dolphins (a little less). Definitely an awesome read, I'd recommend it to everyone.
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Pats have already lost enough starters to almost level the playing field for the mighty Jets......(Warren,Holt,Mankins,Kaczur)and altho I admit I was in favor of giving the youngsters a shot at WR over keeping Holt for one year, the loss could be significant if we end up with Tate being another Chad J.(Don't see that happening tho)
Jets lose Greene for any extended period of time and I'm not convinced they'd be anything special. And if Revis doesn't show up, I'm not sure they'll get to 9 wins....
JMHO
Last edited by BlueThunder; 08-16-2010 at 05:42 PM..
Pats have already lost enough starters to almost level the playing field for the mighty Jets......(Warren,Holt,Mankins,Kaczur)and altho I admit I was in favor of giving the youngsters a shot at WR over keeping Holt for one year, the loss could be significant if we end up with Tate being another Chad J.(Don't see that happening tho)
Jets lose Greene for any extended period of time and I'm not convinced they'd be anything special. And if Revis doesn't show up, I'm not sure they'll get to 9 wins....
JMHO
Warren is definitely a significant loss, but I didn't have Holt starting anyways, and only one of Kaczur/Mankins was going to be a starter. I'm still not convinced that Connolly is a significant downgrade from Kaczur; not having Mankins is the real issue.
And every team loses some people. The Jets' rankings were done with the assumption that Revis would play, for example. If his holdout extends into the regular season, he impacts the Jets far more than any of our guys do us (FO said that he is without a question, by far the most important defensive player in the NFL).
I am not sure that it is as significant a loss as some are making it out to be. For the past couple of seasons, Warren, while playing ok, has as well as a first round pick, now with several years of experience, should be playing. Of course, that's just my opinion.
I think that the team has made some experienced player pickups, along with a few defensive gems out of the draft, that should fill in any void left by Warren.. ( Which, btw, the other Warren will be part of the fill in)
I really do not believe that this loss is as significant that the media is making it out to be. Obviously, they are hard up for story lines.
Fair enough, but as of now there are huge holes to fill at both DE spots. Even if Gerard Warren can fill one of them (and I don't think that's impossible), there's still the other one. I don't have a whole lot of confidence in Lewis, Brace, Wright, or Pryor to do it. Won't kill us against most teams, but the ones that can run it down our throat probably will, which just means we'll need Spikes and Mayo to go nuts.
Pats have already lost enough starters to almost level the playing field for the mighty Jets......(Warren,Holt,Mankins,Kaczur)and altho I admit I was in favor of giving the youngsters a shot at WR over keeping Holt for one year, the loss could be significant if we end up with Tate being another Chad J.(Don't see that happening tho)
Jets lose Greene for any extended period of time and I'm not convinced they'd be anything special. And if Revis doesn't show up, I'm not sure they'll get to 9 wins....
JMHO
Holt wasn't likely to make the final 53 man roster never mind start. Mankins and Kazcur played the same position and there is still a slight chance the Pats come to a deal with Mankins of some sort.
Fair enough, but as of now there are huge holes to fill at both DE spots. Even if Gerard Warren can fill one of them (and I don't think that's impossible), there's still the other one. I don't have a whole lot of confidence in Lewis, Brace, Wright, or Pryor to do it. Won't kill us against most teams, but the ones that can run it down our throat probably will, which just means we'll need Spikes and Mayo to go nuts.
On the other hand who did the Pats have last year at RDE and LDE?
An injured Jarvis Green, overworked Mike Wright, and low round rookie, Mo Pryor; and at LDE a hobbling Ty Warren, and/or a raw rookie NT Ron Brace? Despite not having a true SILB, or established SS to back them up, they still allowed only a mediocre 110 rushing yards per game, not a horrendous 200 ypg, and were exploited only by the elite opponents.
This club is already better than that, based on the ILB and SS improvements, nevermind the two ex-starting vet FA acquisitions.
Football Outsider Record Projections
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