Pujo

This kind of talk begs a discussion on logic.

What would you say the Pats chances of winning the division are? If all 4 teams were equal, it would be 25%. But let's be really homer-ish and say the Pats chances are 70%, with the other teams splitting the other 30%. Now, if someone picks Miami, they have a 1:10 chance of being right. Not great odds, but certainly within the realm of possibility.

Plus, remember that publications benefit from having a variety of opinions. If everyone picks the Pats, sooner or later Miami fans are going to pick a different website to read or radio show to listen to. So even if you get 100 guys in a room and 99 of them pick the Pats, they'll hire the 1 who chooses the Bills because they need that view represented. It's also a form of homerism, but we need to watch our own homerism here too.

patsfan13

This is about entertainment the Dols are the trendy pick. I laugh at how the analyst focus on the Pats losses and ignore roster changes on the other teams. Surtain and Madison were the best pair of corners we had faced for years. They are both gone. I am also still no sold on theit OL.

Whatever, the story will be written on the field. I love it when this team has a chip on their shoulder.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

BradyisGod

That is actually statistically inaccurate. Otherwise, where are the people who think the Bills will win the division? Or the Jets?

Sille Skrub

Yawn.

Everyone picked the Jets last year to win the division and we all know how that turned out. The Dolphins will be improved but not enough to actually concern me.

MIA is the new NYJ.

Keegs

To me, picking Miami is the "trendy pick" just like how picking Arizona to win their division is.

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Pujo

In Buffalo, and NYC. The odds I was giving were only examples, look at the Vegas line if you want an accurate reflection of where the law of averages puts us.

arrellbee

That's not the law of averages - that's the law of "how many fans will bet on a team" (including all of the fan bias and wishful thinking).

363839

I stand by my statement. "No objective analysis could conclude the Pats won't win the division."

With the Jets a work in process, having a new coach and other new personel and the Bills not really a threat at this point, the only team that really challenges is the Dolphins so look at that.

The Dolphins are coming off a successfull 05 season ending the year with what was it 6 or 7 straight wins which is impressive until you look at the level of competition. They beat Pats 3rd stringers on the last game of the season, just barely.
Well, they have Nick Saban who some say is a Belichick clone.
The Pats HAVE Belichick.
The Dolphins picked up pro bowler Daunte Culpepper who, though coming off an injury, could still be effective.
The Pats have Tom Brady.
Dolphins have Jason Taylor.
Pats have Richard Seymour.
The Dolphins have Ronnie Brown?!
The Pats have Cory Dillon
The Pats have Laurance Maroney.
The Dolphins have Randy McMichael.
The Pats have Benjamin Watson and Danial Graham.

You want history? How about five of the last six division championships go to NE.

Now I don't care about publications concerns for readership, just accurate and logical unbiased analysis.
Sure. Readers want to see their team picked do well but they also want that publication to have credibility.

Slagathor

Although all of those are components to determination of the odds, there is a variable which accounts for how well the team will do. It wouldn't be wise for bookies to put the Pats odds for the Super Bowl at 50-1 would it?

Right now the Pats are on average 8-1 odds, only behind Indy at 6-1. Pitt and Seattle are 10-1.

the taildragger

I heard about that...shows what Mariachi knows...a loser coach gets to voice an opinion on a team he knows nothing about...how many times has he faced us in the past 5 years? What's his record?

But it's great to be the underdog again...legitimate disrespect has returned!!!