dryheat44

Let's play GM. We're going to assume we'd prefer to keep both rather than lose them to FA. You're Belioli. What is your best offer to Graham? What is your best offer to Deion? They're both 27, although I think Graham will turn 28 during the season.

TE: Franchise tender: $3,327,000 (avg top 5)
Transition tender: $2,718,000 (avg top 10)

WR:
Franchise tender: $6,172,000
Transition tender: $5,160,000


For my part, I'm offering Graham a four year deal at 3.5, 2.5, 2.5, 3.5, with an 8 million SB.

I'd offer Branch 5 years at 5.25, 5.5, 5.75, 6, 6.5 with a 10 million SB.

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maverick4

Given:
- the depth at TE
- emergence of Watson
- Graham's injury history
- Graham's average hands
- the short time it takes for a TE to start immediately
- improved offensive line and RB's for pass protection
---> Graham is worth 2Million. Any more and he is either not re-signed or traded.

Given:
- little depth or many question marks at WR
- difficulty in finding a #1 receiver in the NFL
- the time it takes to develop a productive NFL receiver
- the skill to get open consistently and catch the ball
---> Branch is worth approximately 5-5.5Million. He has to be signed.

Lamanai

Do your salaies include the amortized bonus or not. If not, I think the figures are too high. For instance, Branch is getting about $26.5 million in the first three years. Why not just let him play out 2006 and franchise him in 07 and 08 ? The cost would be considerably less (>$15 million), and you always have the option of paying less if he blows out a knee or something. By then, he'd be a 30 year old, and probably heading toward the downside of his career. Same argument can be made with Graham. JMO.

If the salaries you listed include the bonus, they look pretty reasonable to me.

dryheat44

The salaries do not include the amoritized bonus. However I don't plan on Graham reaching the fourth year, and if Branch is going to see years four or five, he'd better morph into a top 10 WR, otherwise he'll be a cap casualty.

Right after I posted, I thought maybe I put Branch a little bit high, so you're probably right. However, who knows what the franchise number is going to be in '07 and '08? Don't forget, under this plan Deion's salary will increase by 20% in '08. And I'd rather not use the franchise tag for the bitterness it causes.

I do think Deion will be a productive receiver into his early thirties, although maybe in the slot position.

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spacecrime

Given all the stuff that you "give," I'd agree with your conclusion. Problem is that your "Givens" are opinions. Opinions are great, we all have them, but sometimes they conflict with facts.

Graham has an injury history and Branch does not?

Branch has great hands, graham has bad hands? Right now, not three years ago.

It is hard to find a No.1 WR and not a top TE? There were a lot of top WRs in the free agent market, but zero top TEs.

It takes more time to develop a WR than a TE? Here is BB on the subject of TEs and FBs having to learn their position:

Q: Is Garrett Mills a little bit a head in the system because of the way he was used at Tulsa?

BB: I don’t know if he’s ahead in the system, but I think he has a lot of different skills. He’s run routes as a tight end, as a back, as a receiver. He’s been in a pretty sophisticated offense. So I think that his skills, he’s had an opportunity to work on some of those things. In terms of the system and terminology and all that, he probably still has a lot of learning to do there. But he’s a smart kid, he seems to be picking it up pretty quick, as does Dave [Thomas]. You know, the tight ends and the fullback, whatever you want to call those guys, they really do most of the formationing. Obviously the quarterback, the tailback and the linemen don’t move too much. The receivers move some, but less than the tight ends or fullbacks. In terms of formationing and being involved in the running game, the passing game, dealing with linebackers, secondary players and at times linemen, it’s kind of like playing middle linebacker. You just have a lot more things to deal with, regardless of what the play is. Pete [Mangurian] is doing a great job with them. He’s a very good teacher and I think he categorizes things well for them to learn them. They’re working hard to try to get them down. It’s a lot to learn.

http://www.patriots.com/mediacenter/...=19149&pcid=85

All this said, I don't think you and I are far apart on numbers. I think you are low in both cases. I think Graham can be had for about 2.5-3 mil, and Branch for about 6-6.5 mil.

The difference is that I think if we sign Graham for 2.5 Mil, we still have 3 mil or so to sign an excellent FA WR who could match Branch's production. Remember the "spread the ball' philosophy. It is more important to have a full stable of receivers (WR-TE-FB-RB) who can all catch the ball very well, than to have one highly paid star and a lesser quality supporting cast. Singing Branch for even 5.5 or 6 mil, we will not have the money to sign a top TE even if one should come available..

mgteich

WOW!

Giving them the franchise each year would be much cheaper.

PatsWorldChamps

that's what i was gonna say

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JoeSixPat

Keep in mind, the tender numbers you cite are the 2006 tag tenders - which are based upon 2005 salaries if I'm not mistaken... the slew of new CBA cap inflated contracts will be factored in next year's franchise and transition numbers - and most certainly by agents representing Branch and other FA #1 WRs

So I think, as we've discussed before, if you are looking at a salary for Branch, his agent is going to start with David Givens numbers and then look for a hefty boost above that.

When it comes to #1 WRs its a supply and demand issue - I'd say we don't want to let ourselves get to the point where Branch is an FA and we need a #1 WR otherwise we are in a much worse negotiating position. The only hope we have of getting a halfway reasonable salary for Branch - and I think you're understimating what it will take - is based on the fact we're giving Branch security NOW rather than next year.

On Graham, I think your numbers are probably pretty close to what Graham's agent would like to see- $3 mil a year.

But I think that's much higher than Beoli values Graham, no matter how good a blocker he is, and the fact BB has used so many high draft picks on TEs suggests to me that he's been preparing for the day that Graham's salary demands grow larger than his value to the team.

That day, I predict, will come next season unless Graham accepts a salary that places him in the 2nd tier of TEs - maximum $2 million a year in my judgement.

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dryheat44

Well, you can only franchise one player, the franchise number is going to jump drastically between now and 2007, and after franchising them once, they earn a 20% on top of that the next time.

That being said, I agree that my numbers, for Branch anyway, are a little out of whack. However, remember that the salary cap is going to jump again next year, and the players ARE going to get their share of that. Unless the roster size goes up, that means that players' salaries are going to increase across the board. What seems high now could look very reasonable come next year.

But these are the best offers coming if I'm the GM of the NEP.

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JoeSixPat

Those are this year's franchise numbers.

I'm pretty sure with the influx of new CBA $ the franchise figure might jump next year - and will really take off as old CBA salaries come off the books.

If you really think dryheat's way off on Branch, just take a look at Givens numbers from the Titans.

Was Givens overpaid? Sure... but he still inflates the market value of next year's FA WRs - yet another reason why it was so wise to draft Jackson... but in the end, the money saved on our (hopeful) #2 WR will go to afford our #1 WR... whether that's Branch or someone else.

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