jczxohn1

Interesting read. How quickly some of us forget.

http://www.patsfans.com/12th/2003/st...?story_id=5898

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Felger started his question, "Correct me if I'm wrong," BB quickly interjected, "I can't wait--"


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PatsFanInVa

I liked the "hits and misses" analysis. It's funny how every year, the Monday after the draft, every sports magazine and daily newspaper "grades" the teams on their drafts - yet we don't really know for years. What we need is a 4-year retrospective grade using "hits and misses" for all 32 teams. But I'll settle for just the Pats.

Quick review of recent years (in my eyes):

05 - DAY 1: Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur all go in the Dick Vitale "are you kiddin' me?" category in terms of hits. As in, you can't ask for much more. Thrust into starting NFL roles, held their own. Sanders, middling.
DAY 2: Claridge, Cassel, Stokes - value (to someone) TBD. Cassel might or might not be the developmental QB the Pats keep trying to find. Claridge might or might not get into the mix this year at LB. Stokes, Mr. Irrelevant, I'm not sure even made the team.
RETRO-GRADE: A. Short of turning up another Brady (and he only blossomed by freak circumstance, his second season,) you can't ask for much more.

04 - DAY 1: Another good day 1, perhaps a tiny bit less so. Wilfork and Watson, by this year, were regular starters and good ones at that. Marquise Hill can't be called a bust, but needs to get some rotation before we can judge. Gus Scott impresses everybody in Foxboro. Hey Bill, want to share with the whole class? Dexter Reid has played about at the level you would expect, nothing fantastic. Cedric Cobbs is a miss at RB.
DAY 2: PK Sam and Christian Morton. Misses.
RETRO-GRADE: B. 2 hits, 2 TBD in early rounds. 1 middling hit (Reid), 1 miss (Cobbs) in middle rounds. 2 misses in late rounds.

03 - DAY 1: Ty Warren - now a starter and a good one on one of the better D Lines in football. Eugene Wilson - a monster in 04, and will be again. Bethel Johnson is the sole miss on day one, at the second round, but a near miss. He can run back kicks and catch the odd long ball. It's not that he can't contribute, he just can't contribute as much as the Pats want. (Yet?) Klecko, another near miss. You want to fit him in, you just can't. Asante Samuel rounds out day 1 with a hit.
DAY 2: Koppen - hit, plays starting center. Kingsbury - miss. Nead - miss. Tully, hit waiting to happen, I think. Ethan Kelly, miss.
DAY 1 - 3 hits, 2 near misses (juries still out on these 2.)
DAY 2 - 1 hit, 1 potential hit, 3 misses.
Retro-grade: B+

02 - DAY 1: Graham. Branch. Rohan Davey (whoops.) Jarvis Green. 3 hits and a miss.
DAY 2: Antoine Womack, miss. David Givens, hit.
DAY 1, 3 hits, 1 miss. Day 2, 1 hit, 1 miss.
Retro-grade: A

For four years, we have 9 confirmed misses, counting Stokes, on whom I just have no info, out of 31 picks - or just over 2 misses a year, out of about 8 picks. I don't know other teams as well... but that sounds like an incredible draft record. It's amazing how many of today's "seems like they've always been there" guys - stars, even - come from these drafts. Overall grade? A. It was tempting to go with an A every year, but I figured that's just my homer instinct.

Anybody know how other teams stack up by comparison?

PFnV

jct

We are rated as 1 of the top 5 drafting teams.

flutie2phelan

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Box_O_Rocks

Nice one Stan!

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spacecrime

I miss the logic here. I find 03 to be better than 05.

mgteich

Has bb been the genious everyone says on Day Two? In the four years discussed, we have Koppen and Givens.

Mike the Brit

Thanks, Stan and PfVA. I too think that PfVA has underestimated 03 (and been too generous to 04 which, Wilfork and Watson apart, has made no contribution.)

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Still here to learn

PatsFanInVa

I knew sooner or later tinkering with the particulars would be the focus (which is definitely appropriate.) The main point was, even counting day 2, the Pats are coming away with a 75% "workable" rate, 25% they just can't do anything with. Also a very high rate of starters and "stars," insofar as you can say "star" on a Belichick team.

One caveat - As you get closer to present, the grade gets skewed upward, because you don't know people are busts yet. E.G., since we don't know that you can call Marquis Hill a "bust," he's in the TBD category, whereas anybody drafted in 02 has been gauged by now. That inflates '05 more than other years. And '03 has those big question marks attached, in the persons of Bethel Johnson and Dan Klecko. If they seriously produce this year, then revise the grade. But neither is a real success story thus far. You could put them in the "minor hit" category, just for playing, but I was erring on the side of non-enthusiasm as best I could.

In judging whether BB is a "late round genius:" Well, we do have Brady (who is out of the date range), Givens, and Koppen, three bona fide starters in the league, Brady the best at his position. Late rounders from within the date range include Givens plus Koppen and maybe TBC - less than one per year. But then, Day 2 is a crap shoot by nature. You'd have to do this same kind of breakdown with other teams for comparison.

I for one was shocked to go over, year by year, the addition of household names. I was more impressed by others with '05 because the O Line made an okay showing with two rookies holding down the fort - and they've both earned starting jobs. Hobbs too. (Barring anything jarring in this year's draft/TC.) I gave 05 extra credit for immediate impact, and of course, the Day 2s are all still question marks, except for Stokes, who was, after all, the last man picked in the draft.

PFnV