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Surprise cuts: Fred Taylor, Damione Lewis (or Gerard Warren--I think only one of them will make it).
Surprise keepers: Thomas Clayton (I saw some preseason plays he was in and he looked pretty good...he might be a pleasant surprise if he makes the team), Brandon Deaderick
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Let's put it this way. The Pats would not be practicing Welker in meaningless May and June practices if they planned on sitting him out FIVE months later in September or October. Whatever is holding him back now will be ancient history by the regular season, which is still a ways away. The Patriots have never practiced a guy in minicamps (to my recollection) and then sat him at the beginning of the season. Those players are always on a timetable; it is progressive unless there are setbacks. LeVoir, Eddie Jackson, Chad Jackson, Troy Brown, David Thomas, Richard Seymour, and all others who have been on PUP in recent years were never seen in the summer.
Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.
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"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots
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Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.
In this scenario I could see them easing him back maybe against the Bills in week 3 but why bother if he is ready to go for the start of the season? Why keep him out of practice or why keep him off the roster when they don't have to?
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"As long as we have Belichick, I always think that we're going to be just fine."...Tom Brady, in reference to his coach.
“It is what it is, but it ain’t what you think.”...Brandon Spikes
Not only did Arrington lead the Patriots in special teams tackles in 2009, he did it while playing just in a little more than half a season ( 9 games ). Further, in the 9 games Arrington was a Patriot, he accounted for a whopping 24.5 % of all Patriot special teams tackles. NESN named Arrington the Patriots 2009 special teams player of the year.
Arrington is only 23 years old, and earns just $395,000 per year. Additionally,as the linked article above explains, has taken plenty of reps with the regular defense first and second teams during recent practices.
Arrington is an iron clad lock for the 53 man roster.
I'm not sure how I missed that part when I first read this, but I agree. Arrington very quickly became our special teams leader last year. As for Holt (not from you, but others), he's not going anywhere until this receiving corps shows what it can do against actual competition. Personally, I would be suprised if Holt got cut. But the younger bodies in our receiving corps have tons of potential. If it translates, he could be the odd man out.
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Thomas Williams over BJGE, playing some fullback in addition to being the 5th ILB and a core STer.
Welker on PUP to start, opening a spot for Aiken. Price will be stashed on IR (with a hangnail, of course) once Welker is available.
Sorry Breer, that was idiotic. Ingram is in, leaving Ohrnberger, Welch, and Larsen one spot to fight over. I'll pick Larsen, but I have no idea why.
Deaderick over Lewis. Lewis, Wright, and Pryor all seem like the 3rd down, 4-2 Nickel DTs that we often see. Wright has great production, and Pryor has youth. That gives Lewis' spot to a true 3-4 DE.
Crable over Woods. Woods has shown that he doesn't have a future on defense. I'll give his spot to a guy who might.
Thomas Williams as the 5th ILB, as mentioned above.
I agree with Breer that Arrington will make the roster. Shame on all of you leaving him out!
I think McGowan could be on the way out, but I don't know who would take his place on defense as the 4th safety. Lockett would need to prove a much better option on STs, or I think this could be where the Pats pick up a castoff from another team.
Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.
Good point - I know it was a foot injury and involved PUP, but I forgot that he came off before the start of the season.
That's the worst case, being out until November. Frankly here I believe it is best to be pessimistic in his return rather than optimistic, any additional help he brings earlier than November is a bonus to the team and worth shortchanging him over.
Given what we are seeing him do at this point, anything he doesn't do in September of October would be considered shortchanging.
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Originally Posted by efin98
Welch doing long snaps to me is covering their butts in case the worst case scenario happens- Ingram gets injured. I see this as no different than the team bringing in additional RBs and WRs and another punter for TC to give the starters a break.
I can see where he could be ready to play in the opening game, but keep in mind that ready to play in a game is not necessarily ready to play in 19 or 20 games in a row.
At some point his knee is likely to need rest. I'd rather it happen in September than in the playoffs.
It's going to be a long time until Aug 1.
Again, his participation in practice to this point would seem to indiciate that he is ready to play a full season. If he wasn't, then everything the Pats' recent history has told us would indicate he wouldn't even be close to the practice field.
They are not practices. No contact. What he is doing is the running part of his rehab. That's all. he isn't playing football.
Give me an example of another time when a player participated in minicamp as part of his "rehab," and then been out for camp/preseason. It has never happened in the Belichick era. That has never been the way they do things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime
I don't know what the Pats evaluation is and neither do you. The fact that he is running around does not mean he is ready to play football. Only that he is ready to run around. If he is ready to practice, we will know August 1. That will be his first practice.
Again, you are ignoring history here. The Pats do not practice players in May and June if they do not believe that they are ready to play football in September. Ever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime
No, I never said or implied that.
You asked what possible reason there could be for Welker to be on Pup. There are several One of them is that with him on pup, we'd have six WRs play early in the year. If one gets hurt, we'd have six including Welker. With Wleker playing, we'd not have one of the original six. I know it's a bit complicated, but think of it as a depth issue.-+
Again, not having one of the original six is an issue far and away dwarfed by having Welker for six weeks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime
I'm not undervaluing Welker. Exactly the opposite. I am valuing him so highly I will not take a chance on losing his services in 2010. If I undervalued Welker, I wouldn't care if he re-injured his knee.
If the Patriots had any fears of losing Welker's services in 2010, he wouldn't have been on the field for minicamp. History tells us that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spacecrime
I could be over-estimating his injury risk, which is about a million times better than under-estimating it. Over-estimate and lose Welker for 6 weeks. Under-estimate and lose him for a year.
Bottom line: I'd rather see him on PUP for six weeks and be sure of his services than to have him for six games and chance losing him for the year.
The fact that Welker is on the field in May and June indicates that the Patriots are sure of his services. History tells us that.
Bottom line is, your re-injury fears are not legitimate. I may not knoq the Patriots' medical evaluation of Welker, but history gives me clues. You are just using other players and the "typical ACL timetable." Which one is more applicable?
The Patriots are very methodical in their approach. Players who've had offseason surgery or injury sit out OTAs and minicamp. Then they often will sit out for the first week or so of training camp. Then, there is usually a day off early in training camp, or the first day back after the first preseason games, which is a "test date," when a lot of injured players tend to return. That's when Rodney returned four years ago, and a bunch of guys last year. You can usually count on it each season.
Re: Breer's 53, Bunker Hill Day Edition
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