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I didn't mean to suggest that we are counting on rookies. Belichick tries not to do that at more than one position if he can (TE this year).
I suggest that we will probably be better even without any contributions from the three first year players. Mayo, Burgess and Ninkovich should all produce more than last year. I don't see Thomas as a great loss. Do you? Do you think that one of the three rookies will not give us what Seau did last year? Alexander didn't even play a half-dozen plays at lienbacker.
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SIX RETURNEES
Mayo, Guyton, Banta-Cain, Woods, Ninkovich, Burgess
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FIRST YEAR PLAYER CONTRIBUTIONS
We may or may not get serious contributions from Spikes, McKenzie and Cunningham (or Crable or Willimiams). If ANY of them have a solid year, the linebackers should be significantly better than in 2009, as they may be even without contributions from these three players.
I think that expecting much more from Ninkovich is probably wasted hope. I think that expecting TBC to repeat last year is probably going to lead to disappointment. I expect that improvement will have to come from:
Mayo
Spikes/McKenzie
Burgess/Cunningham
That means that you're counting on 3 rookies, one guy who was a stiff last year, and one young guy who's coming off of a poor season, hopefully due to injury. I'm not saying that they can't make the LB corps better. Given what a load of garbage the LB corps was last season, the bar's not exactly set very high, after all. However, I am saying that you're expecting a lot of "if" players to come through with very positive results.
__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
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The biggest upgrade is going to come from the team finally having a Mike. Last season, while Mayo was dinged up, he was more importantly playing out of position. With Mayo, a natural Will, playing the Mike, Guyton was getting the reps at Will. That is not a legitimate 34 inside backer tandem for any team, and certainly is a massive liability against the run. In effect, the team had a decent Will playing Mike and a situational Will playing the Will.
In Spikes or McKenzie (or more likely a combo of both) the team will have a legit Mike for the first time since Johnson retired. This will enable Mayo to move to the playmaking inside backer spot he is meant for. With this one simple addition the backers will go from quite poor to amongst the best.
I think that a lot of people were swayed by Guyton's play as a rookie, and they really thought he might become a full-time player. BB's moves seem to changed a lot of those minds. Personally, I'm hopeful that Guyton is used in the way I've always thought he'd fit best, which is as a situational LB designated to play on passing downs.
__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
The team is experimenting with different things on defense, and one thought came to mind when watching Tuesday's practice: Derrick Burgess appears to be a significant part of the planning at the position.
When the Patriots went through a drill that had their base 3-4 defense on the field, Burgess was lined up opposite Pierre Woods at outside linebacker. This is a change from last year, when Burgess was utilized mostly as a sub rusher...
Quote:
But based on the few practices that media members have observed in recent weeks, Burgess appears to be positioned to be more than a depth player at this point. He could be right there on the front line, playing alongside Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather and Co -- not as a sub rusher but as an outside linebacker.
I never knew McKenzie was such a great player that we're so improved. For goodness sake this man hasn't proven he can play a full 16 game season. Sadly, the Pats defense is all potential, a lot of "what ifs" this year. Yes the pieces are in place for success. But who gets hurt? Who proves to be a bust? We have no idea were Spikes, crable, Cunningham, and McKenzie even stand right now.
Yeah, yeah, no rookie has ever amounted anything. If a guy hasn't played yet, he never will. Blah blah blah.
Fact is, many times rookies make significant contributions. Guessing which one is tricky, but it is just as dumb to say that no rookie will help as to say all rookies will be great.
A middle ground is nice. Some rooks will contribute their first year, others will take 2 or more. Some never will.
But to say we are not improved with the additiions of Mckenzie, Spikes and Cunningham is simply wrong.
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“When we look at the board, based on everything we want in a football player at that particular time, we evaluate them and take the player that fits best for our football team. That’s what we always do, and I think the last nine years we’ve put a pretty competitive team out there on the field every year. I think that’s how you do it – you get good football players. Sometimes they are not always at the No. 1 position, but I don’t think you pass up good football players to get the guys who aren’t as good just because they’re at a position that somebody feels you need.”
BB on his draft philosophy, April 2010
Unless Cunningham has a breakout season as a rookie, the Pats will have the weakest 3-4 OLB's in the NFL. However, their ISLB's could be pretty good if Mayo becomes the roamer like Bruschi and Spikes or Mckenzie do the dirty work like Ted Johnson.
Let's try a more minimalist apporach. Let us presume that Ninkovich pick ups the reps of Thomas. Please compare.
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2010 BANTA-CAIN vs 2009 TBC even
2010 WOODS vs 2009 WOODS even
2010 MAYO vs. 2009 MAYO improvement
2010 GUYTON vs. 2009 GUYTON even
2010 BURGESS vs. 2009 BURGESS slight improvement
2010 NINKOVICH vs. 2009 THOMAS loss (certainly not a huge loss from 2009 Thomas)
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WITHOUT ROOKIES
I am saying that the improvement over 2009 by Mayo and Burgess will be more than the loss of moving from 2009 Thomas to Ninkovich. Do you disagree?
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THREE YOUNGSTERS GIVE THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
If any of McKenzie, Spikes or Cunningham has significant impact, that will be a major plus.
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BOTTOM LINE
I do NOT count on rookies, except to believe that Spikes or McKenzie or Spikes will give us what Seau did in 2009 (injury protection). I agree with everyone that we can HOPE that Spikes or McKenzie will start, moving Guyton to a backup role. We can HOPE that Cunningham will take most of the reps of Thomas with at least similar production.
I think that this is the patriot way. We expect to improve a bit, even without any rookie production. And if we do indeed get rookie production, we could get much better.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deus Irae
I think that expecting much more from Ninkovich is probably wasted hope. I think that expecting TBC to repeat last year is probably going to lead to disappointment. I expect that improvement will have to come from:
Mayo
Spikes/McKenzie
Burgess/Cunningham
That means that you're counting on 3 rookies, one guy who was a stiff last year, and one young guy who's coming off of a poor season, hopefully due to injury. I'm not saying that they can't make the LB corps better. Given what a load of garbage the LB corps was last season, the bar's not exactly set very high, after all. However, I am saying that you're expecting a lot of "if" players to come through with very positive results.
Let's try a more minimalist apporach. Let us presume that Ninkovich pick ups the reps of Thomas. Please compare.
Ok, let's have at it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 BANTA-CAIN vs 2009 TBC
Given that 2009 was a career year for TBC, it's likely that 2010 will be a step back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 WOODS vs 2009 WOODS
Fair assumption, if he makes the team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 MAYO vs. 2009 MAYO
If it was all about the knee, we should see major improvement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 GUYTON vs. 2009 GUYTON
I'm hoping he improves a bit. I expect he'll see time on passing downs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 BURGESS vs. 2009 BURGESS
He should be better (can't get much worse), but how much?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
2010 NINKOVICH vs. 2009 THOMAS
Thomas was/is the better player, by a comfortable margin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
WITHOUT ROOKIES
I am saying that the improvement over 2009 by Mayo and Burgess will be more than the loss of moving from 2009 Thomas to Ninkovich. Do you disagree?
The potential for the LB corps to be significantly improved is there. The potential for the LB corps to be worse is there. Again, it's a matter of which "if" possibilities win out. I, personally, expect significant improvement from the ILB positions. I don't expect Ninkovich/Burgess to be an upgrade over AdT/Burgess 2009. History isn't on their side. Let's hope they beat the odds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgteich
BOTTOM LINE
I do NOT count on rookies, except to believe that Spikes or McKenzie or Spikes will give us what Seau did in 2009 (injury protection). I agree with everyone that we can HOPE that Spikes or McKenzie will start, moving Guyton to a backup role. We can HOPE that Cunningham will take most of the reps of Thomas with at least similar production.
I think that this is the patriot way. We expect to improve a bit, even without any rookie production. And if we do indeed get rookie production, we could get much better.
The likeliest areas of potential improvement center around Mayo's bounce back and 'rookies' playing better than veterans. If Mayo can truly "bounce back", that'll have an impact on the entire corps, and could make the OLBs look better than last year even if they aren't. However, expecting significant improvement from Ninkovich/Burgess to lead to Thomas' spot being significantly upgraded, while also expecting that TBC will have no dropoff from his career best season, would seem like a bit much to ask.
__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius
There is very good competition across the entire roster which should help all the units.
My problem with the LBs, especially at OLB is that they are all JAGs. Take the names and throw them in a hat, pick the names. There is no top end talent, so they should end up with a group that has good depth but little upside.
It's amazing how any conversation rots when it's dominated by Hey Bro and the Douche Awry.
It's amazing seeing judgement passed on rookies/2nd and 3rd year players. Ya might want to review Takeo Spikes on NFLN and how he noted that it's toward the end of the third year when a lb starts to "get it".
Who are we playing next year? How about looking at the opponents and then developing defensive packages? Do you seriously think Indy will have the same package as Cincy? Green Bay vs Chicago?
I would hate to see judgement if the defense rated like 8th in points last year.