Moss v. Welker (Your Help Needed) - New England Patriots Forums

percyhoward · 06-09-2010, 11:26 AM

I wanted to ask you guys in the main forum, but I'm about 100 posts short of being able to do so.

I'm using the passer rating formula to rank WR's (using catches, targets, and yards per target in place of completions, attempts, and yards per attempt) and have run into a problem when it comes to the INT stat. Interceptions can be counted (as passes intended for that particular receiver that were picked off), or they can be ignored.

The results yielded when you include or not include interceptions aren't vastly different, but since one large difference that does occur involves two Patriot players, I'm turning to you guys for some input on which one of them had the better season.

Counting INT's on passes targeted to the receiver, Welker ranks 5th in the NFL, and Moss ranks 15th:

Code:

Welker NE      123-152 80% 1,348  8.8ypa  4td 1int 109.4
Moss NE         83-136 61% 1,264  9.3ypa 13td 8int  99.0

Not counting INTs puts Moss 5th and Welker 14th:

Code:

Moss NE         83-136 61% 1,264  9.3ypa 13td 0int 123.5
Welker NE      123-152 80% 1,348  8.8ypa  4td 0int 112.4

I realize it's just a matter of opinion, but that's exactly what I'm asking you for--your opinion.

***jmt57*** · 06-09-2010, 01:10 PM

Since an intercepted pass was indeed targeted to a receiver, in my opinion you should include it in your statistical analysis.

As far as who had a better season, I've never really thought of one having a better season than the other. They're both wide receivers by name, but the two have vastly different roles. I think what Moss does is more difficult to replace, and that's part of why he is paid more. But both are extremely important to the team's success.

The stats may point towards Welker, but the guy on the outside who is being covered by the opponent's number one guy, stretching the field, and is faster is probably the better player.

**Ian** · 06-09-2010, 05:36 PM

I just moved this in from the New Member's forum as he's looking for some more opinions.

Triumph · 06-09-2010, 05:48 PM

Welker had the better season, but Moss was playing hurt.

Brady trust Welker and 9 times out of 10 they read the defense the same way. Brady screwed up in the 09 Denver game on a 3rd down when Welker ran a pattern that very well could have gone for a TD but Brady was thinking 1st down.

Welker keeps the chains moving and IIRC, had the most 1st downs. Without sustained drives you dont get the opportunity to throw the long ball to Moss.

JoeSixPat · 06-09-2010, 05:54 PM

I'm going with Welker if you hold a gun to my head

But we're comparing two very different receivers with two very different roles - and one needs to acknowlege that having Moss on the field opens up the game for Welker and having Welker on the field opens up the game for Moss.

So really, even though they're both WRs I almost consider it comparing two players at different positions.

eagle eye · 06-09-2010, 06:01 PM

Ints should not be included, there are many factors not including the receivers route or coverage that can result in an interception like a hurried pass, a spy read etc.

woolster22 · 06-09-2010, 06:01 PM

I think they are both equally important. Welker couldn't do what he does without Moss keeping the defense honest, and Moss wouldn't get half as many chances without Welker moving the chains and demanding attention on the short-intermediate routes. I would say that Welker had the better year, but it is sort of like comparing apples and oranges.

***KontradictioN*** · 06-09-2010, 06:09 PM

Didn't the majority of interceptions on passes intended for Moss come about because Brady was under or overthrowing him, which was allowing the CB to make a better play on the ball? IMO, it was much harder to underthrow or overthrow Welker based on the routes he was running. That's why I don't think interceptions should be counted.

Stokes · 06-09-2010, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by percyhoward

I wanted to ask you guys in the main forum, but I'm about 100 posts short of being able to do so.

I'm using the passer rating formula to rank WR's (using catches, targets, and yards per target in place of completions, attempts, and yards per attempt) and have run into a problem when it comes to the INT stat. Interceptions can be counted (as passes intended for that particular receiver that were picked off), or they can be ignored.

I'm not sure if you want to use INTs as a stat for WRs for reasons others have mentioned. Have you considered using drops in place of INTs? Seems like that's something entirely in the WR's control as opposed to INTs. The QB is ultimately responsible for all INTs because the ball is leaving his hand, and the decision to throw was his. The WR doesn't make the decision, and sometimes it can be his fault (mis-running a route, not turning around, knocking the ball up over the middle, etc), but sometimes he has nothing to do with it (over/underthrow, QB doesn't see safety/LB, QB confused about hot route being run, etc). A drop is a drop and its 100% on the WR. Just a thought. BTW from the stats I saw Welker had 6 drops in '09 and Moss had 7, but I'm not sure if those are accurate.

At any rate it is an interesting analysis to think about, good luck!

***Sciz*** · 06-09-2010, 11:20 PM

The QB is responsible for all INTs. Except ones that bounce off Ben Watson's hands.