Polian: Belichick made right call on 4th-and-2 - New England Patriots Forums

***pats1*** · 03-06-2010, 09:38 PM

Polian, in town, talks fourth-and-2 - Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

***HEY BRO! WHAT UP?*** · 03-06-2010, 09:41 PM

I wonder what he would've said if the Colts lost that game?

Ice_Ice_Brady · 03-06-2010, 10:03 PM

Very strange. I thought it was the right call for opposite reasons. I thought the statistics definitely favored the call. 60-70% chance of making it, and the Colts having a 50 % chance of scoring a TD if the Pats don't make it. Overall that gives the Patriots 80-85% chance of winning or going to OT. Of course, my numbers could definitely be off. Even if you lower the Pats' chance of making it or increase the Colts' chance of scoring, the numbers are pretty good. With a punt, there's 100% chance of the Patriots not making it, and the extra yards needed by the Colts would likely bring their chances of scoring down about 20-30%... not nearly enough, considering that two-minute offense will likely move the ball in the open field with ease. The key was going to be once they got to the red zone. Anyway, I realize not everyone agrees with these numbers, but based on a lot of statistical models following the game, the Patriots made the right call.

Contrary to Polian, I thought, if anything, the momentum of the game would be the reason to punt. You have a ton of momentum on the Colts' side, a very confident team versus a team that was blowing leads left and right, and an extremely loud crowd and fired up defense. When they snapped the ball, I think everyone in Patriots nation just felt like "this isn't gonna go well." It didn't, and of course we missed it by inches. Meanwhile, Belichick had already burned our challenges by wasting timeouts earlier, which was nearly irrelevant statistically, since the chances that would factor into the play were so low. A lot of things like that had just kind of ominously forewarned that this would be a bad ending, especially playing in Indianapolis. There are stats, and then there is that vibe that is equally as strong.

bostonia3333 · 03-06-2010, 10:37 PM

Someone should have been brave enough to ask him if he still stands by his word that losing the SB is the same thing as having a "2-14 season".

RhodyPatriot · 03-07-2010, 07:26 AM

PoliOn is not only correct about the decision but also correct in his analysis as to why BB made that decision.
The Patriots D was toast because of injuries late in that game and BB knew if Manning got the ball back he was going to score a TD.
BB was right to go for it and Keven Faulk did in fact make the 1st down.

Sivy · 03-07-2010, 07:58 AM

People need to move on from this.

Badluck · 03-07-2010, 08:42 AM

i really really cant stand polian. am i the only one?

***DarrylS*** · 03-07-2010, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badluck

i really really cant stand polian. am i the only one?

this is by no means an endorsement of Polian, instead justification of what most of us know...

CGH TX PATS · 03-07-2010, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badluck

i really really cant stand polian. am i the only one?

Heck no, I'm with you man! Polian is a D-Bag.

PatsFanSince74 · 03-07-2010, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ice_Ice_Brady

Very strange. I thought it was the right call for opposite reasons. I thought the statistics definitely favored the call. 60-70% chance of making it, and the Colts having a 50 % chance of scoring a TD if the Pats don't make it. Overall that gives the Patriots 80-85% chance of winning or going to OT. Of course, my numbers could definitely be off. Even if you lower the Pats' chance of making it or increase the Colts' chance of scoring, the numbers are pretty good. With a punt, there's 100% chance of the Patriots not making it, and the extra yards needed by the Colts would likely bring their chances of scoring down about 20-30%... not nearly enough, considering that two-minute offense will likely move the ball in the open field with ease. The key was going to be once they got to the red zone. Anyway, I realize not everyone agrees with these numbers, but based on a lot of statistical models following the game, the Patriots made the right call.

Contrary to Polian, I thought, if anything, the momentum of the game would be the reason to punt. You have a ton of momentum on the Colts' side, a very confident team versus a team that was blowing leads left and right, and an extremely loud crowd and fired up defense. When they snapped the ball, I think everyone in Patriots nation just felt like "this isn't gonna go well." It didn't, and of course we missed it by inches. Meanwhile, Belichick had already burned our challenges by wasting timeouts earlier, which was nearly irrelevant statistically, since the chances that would factor into the play were so low. A lot of things like that had just kind of ominously forewarned that this would be a bad ending, especially playing in Indianapolis. There are stats, and then there is that vibe that is equally as strong.

i'm afraid i agreed at the time and agree now with the content of Polian's much less complex analysis. all of those stats, as valid as they might or might not be, go out the window when you are in a game situation. the decision has to be based on what's happening on the field. based on what was happening on the field, Belichick made the right decision and I believed it was right then and now for the reasons that Polian put forth.