upstater1

Yes, you're right. See my post below. I somehow missed the fact that Balt beat Denver this year. I had Denver getting the #5 based on conference record, and that's why I saw Baltimore ****blocking Pittsburgh out of the playoffs.

But because Denver lost to Baltimore, they'd go against Pitt in a tie-breaker.

Here's the key: the head-to-head tiebreaker gets tossed out the window if any of the other teams finish in a tie with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and therefore Baltimore would not get the #5 seed, which means they'd block Pitt from the #6 seed tiebreaker again.

So, because Denver lost to both Pitt and Baltimore (a fact that I missed in my first scenario), they would be out of the playoffs if only those three teams finished with 9-7 records.

If any other team goes 9-7, you can't use head-to-head, and Baltimore does not get the #5 seed, but instead Denver does.

klinefan

Steelers, or Stealers after their Seattle game, are tough, always. I'm not sure how good their offense is, but their defense would probably eat us alive. Double Moss, triple Welker, and it's Maroney for 2 yards a carry.

upstater1

Yeah, I missed the Balt win over Denver, but.... I wonder why Houston and Ten aren't included as needing one loss, because if they get to 9-7, your head-to-head wins against Denver become irrelevant, and so does Baltimore's.

upstater1

You can't trust that Yahoo generator.

Look at the tie-breaker rules.

Head-to-head goes out the window when three or more teams are tied, unless one of the teams sweeps the others (which didn't happen with Pitt).

So, you'd go to conference record.

Under conference record, Denver gets in ahead of Baltimore.

This means the Yahoo generator is wrong.

So, in addition to your scenario above, you need to add two more to the mix:

5) Tenn loses at least one game
6) Houston loses at least one game

PATSYLICIOUS

Yeah I wouldn't put my full trust in the playoff generator. What if a tiebreak comes down to strength of victory? I'm not sure that thing is set to accurately compute SOV after all your predictions (if it is, that is dang impressive).

supafly

Forget about the stupid 'generator.'

It's all over the steelers website, Triggerfish is correct (with respect to upstater1)

As we've been talking about for days:



We beat JAX (good chance)
NYJ lose to EITHER Cincy or Indy (check)

Then all PIT has to root for is Philly to beat Denver. If that doesn't happen, they can even still get in if Oakland beat Balt.

So, as long as we beat JAX (or CLE does), and EITHER
1. Philly beats Denver
---OR---
2. Oak beats Baltimore

(given that the NYJ will lose at least once to IND or CIN)

upstater1

This is incorrect, for the reasons mentioned above.

upstater1

I'll try to do it simply now:

Pitt, Balt, Denver and either Tenn or Houston finish at 9-7.

The first tie-breaker to come into play is conference record.

Denver gets the #5 seed.

So you redo the tie-breaker after that. The first tie-breaker that comes into play is again, conference record.

Baltimore gets the #6 seed.

Pitt is out.

supafly

No, upstater, I don't believe it is.

Unless you're talking about my lack of putting in words that the Steelers must win out.

Look at triggerfish's posts again--it's the exact same thing I wrote.

It's been figured out since late Sunday evening, unfortunately I have to live here (PIT) and everyone's talking about it.

Please tell me what's wrong?

supafly

PIT beats DEN is a tiebreaker, due to head to head winning