12-20-2009, 11:31 AM
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#13
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Re: Mort: Rookie wage scale will not come until 2012, at the earliest
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nonentity
A high 1st round pick has considerably more value than a high 2nd round pick. For example, on Jimmy Johnson's draft pick trade value sheet, the 7th overall pick is worth 1500 points, the 39th overall pick is worth 510 points. The worst spots to pick are really picks 1-8: after then, it all calms down a bit, wage-wise.
Raiders' drafting history:
2004 - 2nd overall (Robert Gallery, a bust compared to the rest of that amazing top 10)
2005 - 7th overall (traded to Vikings for Randy Moss)
2006 - 7th overall (Michael Huff)
2007 - 1st overall (JaMarcus Russell.....bust.)
2008 - 4th overall (Darren McFadden)
2009 - 7th overall (Darrius Heyward-Bey)
2010 - currently on target for 7th overall with a record of 4-9
In 2008, when we took Jerod Mayo at 10th with a contract of 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed), Sedrick Ellis held out for a contract of 5 years, $49 million ($19.5M guaranteed) with the Saints. Those escalators are scary.
In 2009, the Raiders gave DHB an utterly stupid contract of 5 years, $38.25 million ($23.5M guaranteed), a better contract than the 6th pick, Andre Smith, got.
The 2010 value? No point looking at the overall value, since escalators and position cause it to vary so much. But I'd suggest something like 5 years, $23m guaranteed. 2011 would then be 5 years, $26m guaranteed.
We'd certainly prefer a rookie wage scale. But the worst place to be is in the top 5 picks, with contracts becoming sane from the 9th/10th pick onwards. The best players still come at the top of the draft and it's a great bargaining chip for needy teams to trade with us. At the end of the day it will all depend on how well Oakland do next season - 5-11 or 6-10 would be ideal, which would work out to the 8-11th overall pick. |
Exactly correct.
Worst case scenario: Oakland drafts 1st in 2011, and there's no rookie wage scale. We're stuck with a high priced pick, and no one wants to trade up. However, the 2011 draft is stacked at the top, and with Jake Locker and possibly Ryan Mallet available, someone will want to trade up.
Best case scenario: Oakland drafts 1st in 2011, and there is a rookie wage scale. Someone will pay a king's ranson to move up for Locker or Mallet, and we'll end up with multiple 1st round picks at relatively cheap cost.
It's way too early to say what will happen regarding a rookie pay scale in 2011. I wouldn't put stock in Mort's report. But even if there is and we end up with a top 10 pick, we'll manage to trade pack a few spots like we did in 2008 and pick up a stud around #10 for reasonable cost.
An early 2011 mock from board member NEPatriots, BTW. It has us taking CB Patrick Peterson at #7, and TE Kyle Rudolph at #32. DE/OLB Robert Quinn is going 13, and WR Jonathan Baldwin at 20. I'd love to trade back a few spots and then trade up from #32 and get those 2 guys.
2011 NFL Mock Draft
No need to panic.
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