Football probabilities, then I'll shut up - New England Patriots Forums

***klinefan*** · 11-17-2009, 02:36 PM

What is the odds that if the pats punt to the colts, they get it on say their 40 yard line, they score? 50%?

What are the odds that we make it on 4th and 2? 70%?

THAT ALONE says we should go for it. Believe it or not.

Plus if we DON'T get it, there's still a shot they don't score.

As it were, I saw the replay twice, FAULK did bobble it initially, but had it secured well past the 1st down marker before being driven back. Can't believe the annoucners didn't notice this too.

Also tehre was a free 30 yard interference call that Miles Austin drew on Butler on the previous drive. At first the annoucers were like "that's a veteran play to get an interference!...". Then Collinsworht said "to tell you the truth the pats player didn't really do anything there". Yeah, duh, and that was the game if they didn't get that free 30 yards.

Manning is proven whiny crybaby choker he proved it in the game and will prove it again against us or the Bengals or steelers.

I thought we would get blown out to tell you the truth, we can handle their attack...just have to block that one guy (Kaczur's guy) better and somehow get a running game, which hopefully we will have from Morris and Taylor by playoff time.

We'll win the division for sure if we can keep playing well.

fourthandmiles · 11-17-2009, 02:44 PM

You are right and not only that you give BOTH the offence and defense a chance to win the game. By kicking it you take the offence out of the picture completely.

bostonia3333 · 11-17-2009, 02:50 PM

4th and 2 conversion rate with Brady: 90%

Considering Hanson is our punter--that's a net 30 yds if we punt, Colts receive take over at their 40 yd line: Colts score 80%. Punting would have likely been a slow horrific death.

Colts score: 95% inside our 30

BB made gutsiest call of his career I thought, but it was the right one, considering how the game was evolving. And the 4th and 2, the Pats convert like it's nothing usually. You take their MVP out of the picture and let your MVP make the game clinching play, which is a high percentage play I'll take that any day.

Brady just went to Faulk when Welker was open. That was shocking to me.

Patspsycho · 11-17-2009, 03:00 PM

4th and short conversions against the Colts by the Pats are actually 66% (8 for 12). 75% if you include the playoffs (further 4/4).