maverick4

1. Sea Bass Vollmer absolutely dominated Freeney, mostly without help, all game. He was also a beast in the running game. (I personally think that the Pats should have run behind Vollmer *if* they decided to go with an illogical 4th down call).

2. Kevin Faulk was clutch all game. The missed 4th down catch was the correct call, but Faulk made huge plays all game, in the running and passing game, and even on that play made a great catch after getting hit.

3. Nick Kaczur was, and has been for a long time, a below average tackle. He is both slow, and weak. Mathis had his way with him, but I have seen much lesser DE's abuse him as well. I can't wait for Light to get back and either play RT, or have Vollmer slide to RT.

4. The defense, and secondary in particular, played great. The Colts scored 14 total points with 4 minutes left in the game. Some of those passes the Colts made throughout the game, were basically perfectly executed, unstoppable plays by Manning and Wayne. The pass interference on Butler was BS, but expected given the ridiculous PI calls the Pats always get when they play Polian's refs.

5. The Pats offense was rolling most of the game. Moss and Welker could not be stopped.

6. Having said that, O'Brien is still below average as an offensive coordinator. He was very predictable with the shotgun draws, had several notable red zone failures, as well as burned costly timeouts due to either his play calling or organization skills...which ended up influencing the outcome of the game.

7. Here are my thoughts on the 4th down call, and why it was a poor call. No matter what payoff tree one tries to create, it makes no sense why it's justified to go for it on 4th down on your own 30, especially against Peyton Manning. The biggest fallacy is what Belichick said in the post-game, that he wanted to roll the dice and win the game now based on his confidence in the offense. If one factors in the percentage of getting that 1st down (and the downfall of giving Manning 2 minutes on your own 30), versus the chance that Manning can score a TD from his own 30, there is no rational or mathematical explanation why it was a smart call.

I want to bring up the discussion from the Pats-Falcons game because it is completely relevant. Some "geniuses" at the time tried to argue that going for it on 4th on our own 25 was a rationally supported move, when it wasn't. I'm linking those discussions here, to add to debunking the myth that going for it on 4th down, from your own 30 or less, is somehow supported by reason as opposed to just gambling:

Fourth-and-1 from the Pats’ 24-yard line

Official Patriots/Falcons Post Game Thread

upstater1

I was most bummed out by O'Brien. Did not like the playcalling in the 4th, but worse than the playcalling was the lack of consistency.

If you're going to take the air out of the ball by running, then concede the first down and get the play clock down to 3:20 seconds. The Colts are down 13. The decision to throw stopped the clock with more than 4 minutes left.

Brady does not trust O'Brien, and if he did, he wouldn't call that timeout that started the last series.

If you take more chances on that last series, maybe it doesn't come down to a 4th down at all.

I was really critical of O'Brien's 4th qtr.

mayoclinic

We played 2 different games. We dominated the first half, in which we were aggressive on both offense and defense, mixed things up, attacked, used play-action pass, and kept the Colts off balance. Neither Freeney nor Mathis generated consistent pressure in the first half. Manning was frustrated and thrown off his game.

In the second half we once again became more passive and predictable, getting softer on defense and reverting to the shotgun as our almost exclusive offensive formation. This allowed the Colts DE's to tee off on Brady. Vollmer shut down Freeney, but Mathis generated consistent pressure and altered a lot of throws, resulting in change of possessions. We again showed an inability to put opponents away in the second half (Denver, Baltimore), an inability to make crucial scores in the red zone (the Maroney fumble and the last score where we stalled after getting to the Indy 16 and had to settle for a FG when a TD would have iced the game). And our game management and play calling in the 4th quarter were atrocious.

I agree the PI call on Butler was bogus, and the Faulk spot was very questionable. But we opened ourselves up to the bad spot by cutting it way too close on that play with a poor call. Other than those 2 calls I thought the game was well officiated.

Manning is too good to let him off the hook. We had him down and out, and let him off the hook. No excuses. We have only ourselves to blame for giving the game away.

Players of the game for the Pats: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer and Tom Brady.

Goats of the game: the Pats coaching staff and the run defense (though admittedly the loss of Warren hurt a lot).

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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Joker

9 games down , 7 to go....suppose O'Brien gets things a little straightened out? Why should the Pats be afraid to go anywhere to play in the playoffs? Tough loss, but it IS a 1 point loss to a 9-0 team in THEIR house. You don't think the Pats KNOW they can beat the Colts in Indy?

BionicPatriot

Say what you will about the defense. They were unable to make the stops they needed to against Denver, and the same thing tonight. Hell, the same thing all of last year in all 5 losses.

This game was the measuring stick and the Patriots failed. I'm not worried about them getting to the playoffs, it's what they'll do when they get there I worry about. When are they going to start beating good teams again? It's always the little things that lose games like this.

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Defense, defense, defense

mgteich

The run defense???????????????????????????
Review the stats and understand that we were usually in the dime and were playing without Warren and Green.

BionicPatriot

They were close last year with Matt Cassel, had them down 21-0 in 06. Just because we play them tough means ****. The colts absolutely own the Patriots right now so much its embarassing.

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Defense, defense, defense

Patspsycho

That's one small bright spot from the game. Vollmer ate Freeney for lunch.

I don't have DVR but I think he only blew 1 or 2 blocks on Freeney because of that patented spin move.

maverick4

We could argue percentages all we want, but forcing Manning to score a TD from his own 30 as opposed to our own 30, is a much superior choice to the percentage of converting that 4th down.

One could make the same rational justification for PUNTING, against a much lesser QB. Going against Peyton makes even less sense to give him a short field when leading by less than a TD.

If Belichick wanted the ball last he could have let the Colts score much earlier and given Brady more time. If Belichick really wanted to go for it no matter what, he should have ran the ball on 3rd and 4th down. Instead, he simply screwed up and didn't follow any coherent strategy.

HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

He did a great job. However, because the Pats kept passing the ball, it allowed Freeney to finally make plays when it mattered most. He is developing nicely.

The game shouldn't have come down to that 4 and 2. I don't blame Faulk for not getting 2 yards. The Pats should've blown them out.

Kaczur has had a decent year. However, he really struggles against elite DE's. I like the idea of Light and Vollmer playing at the same time.

Bodden played great. However, he should've been on Wayne. I don't like Wilhite at all. He's not starting material.

Bill O'Brien is what he is, a rookie play caller. The turnover of staff has really killed the Pats in clutch situations. Passing the football on 1st and goal has got to stop! Also, we will always sit here and think Maroney is a bust when he gets the ball only 13 times.

In the end, I'm afraid the Colts are starting to creep fear into the Pats heads' that they just can't beat them.