Originally Posted by PatsRI
this one from Aaron Schatz.
I usually don't even care but I do read them and had to share this one. He has Washington, at least they're in the playoffs, and the Bengals ahead of the Pats. A team that lost last week ahead of the Pats? Also says the 10 game win streak in the playoffs is overrated.
Just read that they used a statstical formula to rank them. Still funny though.
I do something similar to DVOA ranking as a hobby. I must agree with Aaron Schatz. (It's like game theory - See the movies "A Beautiful Mind").
Look at it this way. Say a person (called him Pat) does marathon 10 times with results ranging from 3 hours to 5 hours, average is 4 hours.
If you must guess what his time would be the next run, what can
you say? 4 hours?
Let's say a Broncos guy runs with average 2.5 hours, but ranges
from 2 to 5 hours, we have to rank the Bronc guy above the Pat guy, right?
But the next run, can we be sure that the Bronc guy will beat the Pat guy?
I have to say that in my estimate, the Broncos has a better chance of winning than the Pats, as they are more well rounded (run offense, run defense, pass O, pass D, special/kicking...) based on past 16-game record
(but past performance is not predictive of future returns)
If we model the game statistically (sort of like Madden game simulators), being well rounded has a much better chance of winning than being excel at a few, but worse at the others. It's multiplicative, not additive. Like this:
(0.1 x 0.7=0.07, which is less than 0.4 x 0.4= 0.16, even though
0.1+0.7 = 0.4 +0.4=0.8)
Pats' weakness is their running game and suspect 2ndary.
So I likens the Broncos and Pats' chance to a game of rolling the dices.
Let's say whoever have a bigger total, wins. The Broncos have 2 dices,
the Pats, just one. So, the Broncos' expected score is 7, the Pats': 3.5.
They should indeed be favored. But that's if they play 100 times.
Just for one time? The Pats may roll a six, and the Broncos may roll a snake eye.
"That's why they play the game" (and why it's entertaining).
For me, the fun part is the psychological aspect of the game. Mental
toughness is not intangible. They are measurable effects on athletes'
performance. We can have confidence in Brady and Pats' coolness under
pressure, but what about the Broncos at home? They can be just as
tough and confident. So this "edge" may not be as much as the hype.
I have noticed the Pats' "prone to panic" early this year, worse than
2003 season. If the Broncos is up 10-0 and the Pats start to
go gun every down, and Brady gets frustrated, it'll be a long night.