thenepatsrule

Nice article which relates BBs plays to an economic paper...... would be boring for most ppl i guess..............if there are any math geniuses reading this (MIT etc) would be interesting to get your take on how BB calculates the risks etc.......
Super Bowl Economics: Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go

i remember there being a reference to this paper in an episode of NUMB3RS

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PatsFanSince74

There's a lot of stuff on this kind of thinking. One of the original sources is "The Hidden Game of Football" by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn (1998) which claims to analyze hundreds of thousands of plays to give a view on the "right" decision (i.e., the decision yielding the greatest likelihood of success) based on down, distance, score and game clock. The book is densely and poorly written, but makes its point. Football Outsiders does something similar today.

IMO, the problem with this kind of analysis is that it ends up giving us a median probability of a most likely outcome that then has to be used for instantaneous decision making "in the moment," but that doesn't account for the myriad of things that can happen (Statisticians call this the "Flaw of Averages"). In other words, it's not yet robust enough to capture all the variables that are in play in that "moment" as well as the experience and knowledge that are inside Bill Belichick's head as he makes that decision.

Bottom line for me is that there's no replacing the instincts of a Belichick or any other great coach.

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JSn

I think the biggest issue is that these problems are being solved with numbers like 12, 39, 76, etc... meaning, the best odds of success for one team might not be the best for another team, based on personnel.

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Synovia

Of course. Which is why the metrics never say "you should go for it". They say "You should go for it if you think you can convert more than XX percent of the time". IE, the risk is 1/3 as bad as the reward is good, or whatever.

The coach decides what he things his chances of converting are.

That being said, BB has been the most aggressive coach in teh NFL as far as going for it on 4th downs. The numbers analysis says that teams don't go for it nearly enough.

holyredeemer

Ya, I agree with a few of the previous posters regarding play selection.

If you have to rely on economics or any form of averages in order to make your decisions then you are gonna be in for a long game. The game of Football has far too many variables to take everything into account, and even then, you can never take into account a particular players performance.

All that matters in this game is reaction speed, and execution. You take care of both of those things over the course of a football game, and do so with more consistency then the team you are facing, I'm gonna bet you win the game.

The article is very interesting though.

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"The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur."
-- Vince Lombardi on football

Synovia

Says a fan of the most statistically motivated team in the NFL?

makewayhomer

it's this type of thinking that allows smart people to get way, way ahead of dumb people

patfanken

Interesting. ESPN did an interview with a very successful HS HC in Arkansas (Little Rock) who virtually NEVER punts the ball. That includes time when he was in his own red zone. This is a team that has won 2 state titles in the last 7 years and is has made the playoffs every year during that time. He cited some stats that started him on this trend, and over the years he punted fewer and fewer times. Last year he said he punted only 3 times. . He also stated that he onside kicked more than half the time and had 7 different onside kick plays. Like punting he believes that the risk is worth the reward.

IIRC it was on the show that follows Mike and Mike.

BTW- the most interesting part of that article that was linked was the fact the BB responded to the guy who wrote the paper. He told him he should also consider the emotional factor of the team if they FAIL to pick it up. What was even MORE interesting was that the professor redid his numbers with that in mind.....and found out that it STILL didn't matter. Teams punt too often.

thenepatsrule

a very interesting read on statistical analysis in NFL ......

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Gwedd

Indeed, there's also the morale/emotional factor forced upon the defense when you MAKE that 4th down. It means they're still on the field, and starting all over at 1st down, and closer to their own end zone.

These studies have lots of use, but as commented upon above, they often can't adequately account for the reactions of the other side. They are best used as a guide, rather than a rule, for various situations.