captadamnj

Week 5 of Sunday NFL football in the books (still got tonite's game). Trying to get something positive to look forward to, so thought I'd break down the current AFC standings (teams listed in current order of standings) to see where we stand. A "brutal" schedule of having to play the South divisions in each conference is now shaping up to be more of a scheduling boon than any of us could have hoped for. Let's hope the Pats use it to their advantage. (I like the defense, and despite loosing 2nd half leads, the D has had little help from the O in the 2nd half of the two losses. The O improves through the year as Brady and the receivers improve whatever it is that isn't working like we've seen in the past.)

Here's where things stand right now, half the conference essentially in the playoff picture (more complete breakdowns below) based on current record and schedule the rest of the way.

DEN (5-0, leads IND on strength of victory)
IND (5-0)
CIN (4-1)
NYJ (3-1)
PIT (3-2)
BAL (3-2)
NWE (3-2)
SD (2-2)

My feeling is that of the above 8, two of the teams from the AFC North will wind up with lesser records than the Pats (as well as all teams not currently listed). I'm looking for a division championship, but if not, then I like our odds in a 3+ team wild card race based on the fact that the North is going to beat each other up affecting their overall conference record.

Pass the kool-aid, here's to the playoffs and beyond!

East -
Jets (3-1) - Chance at 12-4. Penciling in losses on the road to Pats and Colts, plus a loss in one of the Miami games or, based on current records, tough home games against Falcons (although a cold weather game for a dome team from the south) and the Bengals.
Pats (3-2) - At least as good a chance or better than the Jets to be 12-4. Toughest games will be home for the Jets (but we just pencil in that as a W, right?!), at the Colts and at the Saints. Other games all should be favored in.
Dolphins (2-2) - Hard time finding 10 wins on their schedule with 2 games still against both the Jets and Pats along with games against the Saints and Steelers.
Bills (1-4) - TO who?

Jets and Pats in playoffs. At 12-4 (or better), I like us as Division champs either straight up or in a tie-breaker with the Jets on division record (5-1 vs 4-2 as Jets lose to Pats and one to Miami).

North -
Bengals (4-1) - On tap for 10-11 wins, but the Bengals? THE BENGALS?!? 3 quality wins by a total of 9 points. I don't see their luck holding up all season with games against Baltimore, @ Pitt, @ Minn, @ SD, @ NYJ. At least 3 losses there, plus at least another loss or two somewhere because they are still the Bungles. I think.
Ravens (3-2) - 8-8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. @ Minn, Denver, @ Cin, Indy, Pitt, @ GB, @ Pitt could all come up as an "L" leaving them sub-500.
Steelers (3-2) - Still likely the class of the division with 11+ wins possible if they keep the running game going, Ben upright and find a way to win the close road games they've lost so far this season. Minn, @ Den, Cinn, GB and a pair against the Ravens look like toughest games, but 4 of those games are at home.
Browns (1-4) - Punter was their best player on the field yesterday. QB's stats made Jamarcus Russell stats look good. Who will be gone first, their coach or their heralded first round QB?

I like the Steelers for the division. Cinn and Bal could challenge, or in running for Wild Card. If we have to compete for Wild Card, we already have the head-to-head tie breaker of Bal and these teams will all beat up each other for conference record tie-break.

South -
Colts (5-0) - Hate to admit it, but the only thing holding this team back from 13 wins right now is that they may have the division wrapped up by T-giving. Home games against the Pats, Broncos and Jets. We know they'll lose at least one of those (). @ Texans and @ Jags in division games.
Jaguars (2-3) - Hard time finding 10 wins, and maybe another battle for .500. @ Jets, @ 49ers, Colts, @ Pats. They might look like world beaters, however, after next week's game at home against the Rams.
Texans (2-3) - See also - Jags, only harder schedule. @ Cinn, @ SF, Pats, a pair against the Colts.
Titans (0-5) - NFL = Not For Long (until we see VY?)

Colts as division winners.

West -
Broncos (5-0) - Going with 11-5, but neither 12 wins nor 10 (or less) would surprise me. @ Bal, Pitt, NYG, @ PHI, @ IND, plus a pair with SD.
Chargers (2-2) - Going with 11-5 also. @ NYG, PHI, Cinn, a pair with DEN = 3 losses.
Raiders (1-4) - You just have to feel for Seymour. Turns out, however, that his coach may be a harder hitter than he is.
Chiefs (0-5) - At least Pioli, Cassel and Vrabel have each other to comfort.

Broncos and Chargers both worth mentioning for playoffs right now, with Den leading the division champ race right now. If we have to go the Wild Card route in a 3 (or more) horse race, let's hope Den definitely wins the West since we're already behind the 8-ball on head-head and conference record.

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mfaith

There's still a lot of football left. The Pats still have an excellent chance to win the division especially considering the Jets have a rookie QB.

Pat the Pats Fan

I stop back after Thanksgiving.....

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TB3 is now just TB. Tedy and Troy for Pat's HOF!!

Shrekk

I agree with alot here, except a few things, with jets, you penciled indy as a loss, but keep in mind the jets play indy in week 16, if indy continues to roll and the rest of the south keeps playing poorly, you may see sorgy instead of manning under center. in my estimation the colts might only have 2 losses by week 16, perhaps already grabbing the number one seed, there would be no reason to put mannings neck on the line against a blitz happy defense in a game that means nothing. i see the colts going 13-3 at the very least. theyll be 8-0 before their first tough game against new england. they only have 4 tough games which is annoying, patritots, denver, baltimore, and jets. i can only see them handed a loss from these opponents.


I say that the afc west and afc south send one team to the playoffs: denver and indy, the afc east will send two, jets and patriots, wc or div. winner depends on how the season plays out, and in the north id expect to see baltimore and either pitt or cin, im inclined to think cincy, considering pittsburgh is having issues even against teams like detroit who almost won.

So here is my pre mature playoff picture:

1- Colts (anywhere between 13-3 and 15-1)
2- Jets or Pats (anywhere between 11-5 and 13-3)
3- Bal/Cincy (10-6/11-5)
4- Denver (10-6/11-5)
5- Jets or Pats (anywhere between 11-5 and 13-3)
6- Cincy/Bal/Pitt (9-7/10-6)

Phoenix111

Pats own tiebreaker over Ravens. Their conf records are the same but Pats won the head to head...if it ended now of course.

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captadamnj

3-way Wild Card tiebreaker different than two-team head-to-head unless one team has beaten both teams head-to-head. Next applicable is won/loss/tied in the conference, thus the current conference ordering.

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PATRIOTSFANINPA

I give Denver all the credit in the world for their gutsy win yesterday but I see deja vu in that division,I see a Broncos team falling apart by midseason and the Chargers stealing the division away again. - Denver will win 9 or 10 games at most...yes,even at 5-0 I am saying this.

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bostonia3333

I think the Pats are well within the playoff picture, but their seeding is going to be pretty low. I think Pitt may get the no. 2 seed--that team is too complete to go 9-7 or 10-6. The bad news about the Pats loss to Denver is it makes the likelihood of getting a first round bye pretty unlikely. I think 12-4 is too optimistic because that means you have to go 9-2 the rest of the way--sounds like no room for error.

It's likely that Pats would host a wild card game---I hate having the Pats play 3 games to get to a Super Bowl---but that's the punishment you get when you play not to lose on defense.

Shrekk

I have to disagree with your assessment of pittsburgh, they are not the smash mouth defense of yesteryear. Dick Lebeau not being there has had an effect. Pittsburgh has 6 games left that are certainly losable, they have minnesota, denver, baltimore twice, cincinati, and green bay. and the season finale against miami is no guarantee. I would not be surprised to see pittsburgh miss the playoffs. its a 3 horse race in the north i think the team that comes in 3rd misses the playoffs and the 2nd place team gets the 6th seed.

captadamnj

2 losses in 11 games allows them to err 18% of the time!

__________________
"You know what I'm craving? A little perspective. That's it. I'd like some fresh, clear, well seasoned perspective." - Anton Ego