supafly

I don't know how much I agree about the schedule thing, although I respect your opinion. We still have 4 divisional games remaining, 1 with a team we already lost to, 2 against a MIA team that Brady struggles against, and another at BUF. When you couple that with games AT Indy and New Orl, where it's almost impossible to win, with games against hungry teams like TEN, who isn't at bad as they appear, HOU, CAR, JAX--you may find that one of those 4 teams can beat us also.

I think it's a plus that we have 5 hard games out of the way, and yes, I am including the opener because it has a bit of mystique, etc becasue teams' are pumped up for the season and stand at 0-0.

The stats and schedule strength prove, however, that NE has the 3rd hardest schedule, while PIT has the 2nd easiest.

ClosingTime

I think Miami stinks. Buffalo lost to the Browns at Home. Tennessee's secondary has fallen apart. If they do start Vince Young then they have given up on the season.

Strength of schedule is a worthless stat as it is based on last season. Miami, a division-winner last year stinks this year. Cincy, who stunk last year, is good this year. Denver, who was average this year, is undefeated. Tennessee counts as a difficult game on the strength of schedule yet they are winless.

Jets still have more difficult games left and I have full confidence that the Jets will lose at least one game that they should win thanks to a rookie QB.

But to the point of the original poster, there is no way the South will have a wildcard contender. I seriously doubt San Diego will be in the wildcard mix as their D is horrible and will not get better this year without Jamal Williams.

I realize it is way early but that leaves Cincy, Steelers, Jets, NE and Ravens battling for four playoff spots. When was the last time one division had both wildcard spots? Almost impossible to happen.

carolinatony

We need Denver to win the west over the Chargers so they are not fighting with us for a wildcard.
We need the Ravens to finsh 2nd behind either Pitts/Bengals so we can beat them in a tiebreaker. Don't know if they can.
We must beat the Rats and IMO if we beat Indy and sweep the Fish win the division and a bye. We can afford to lose @ NO.

If the O gets it on we ae good.

Look at the last 4 games we play.
Carolina stinks. I see them every week
Buffalo -no comment
Jacksonville and Houston are not very good.

The Rats play,Tampa,Bengals,Indy and Falcons. I see 2 loses.

captadamnj

Two more weeks in the books.

DEN (6-0)
IND (6-0)
CIN (5-2)
PIT (5-2)
NWE (5-2)
NYJ (4-3)
HOU (4-3)
BAL (3-3)
JAC (3-3)
SD (3-3)

Having included 8 teams in the initial post, in doing so, wound up with 2 more for this update since a 3-way tie based on record for 8th in the conference right now. Even after 2 straight wins by the Bills and some good showings by the Fish, I don't see any of the 6 conference teams not listed above being a factor other than playing spoiler come December.

Definitely have the Jets sliding right now. Defenses now have some Sanchez tape, and offenses have some tape of the D. Major loss on D with Jenkins to IR and on O/ST with the loss of Washington for the year. Division is now the Pats to lose.

Despite CIN still leading PIT based on the divisional tie breaker, PIT has the momentum and the Bengals are still the Bengals. The return of Polamalu has definitely helped the PIT D. That said, PIT was one "right through his hands" from seeing the game tied (or falling behind). Kudos to the D for making a big play when they had the chance. A "black and blue" division, standing by the initial analysis.

The South remains the Colts to lose. Texans get a couple of wins, but still have a very tough schedule. If the Jags get a couple more wins like they could they will get some media time with 3 wins in a row. But I wouldn't doubt the Titans getting their first win this week. The South has been a lot like the East this decade, some average-above average teams that are constantly playing 2nd fiddle to the division leading juggernaut.

In the West, Denver has now created some separation for themselves from SD within the division.

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Synovia

The same Miami team that should have beat both Indy and New Orleans?


I think the Pats beat them, but I think its a tough game.

Synovia

2007. The two wildcards in the NFC were the Giants and Redskins. It happens every couple of years.

Jimke

The next 5 weeks tell the story.

Dolphins

@ Colts

Jets

@ Saints

@ Dolphins

The Patriots need to win the Jets game plus 2 others.

KontradictioN

Good thread to bump. I want to take it step further and bracket it, if you will...

1. Denver (6-0)
2. Indianapolis (6-0)
3. New England (5-2)
4. Cinncinnati (5-2)

5. Pittsburgh (5-2)
6. NYJ (4-3)

So, as of today we would be taking the division and would be opening up in the Wild Card round at home against Jesters, considering they own a tiebreaker having shut out Houston in Week 1. The thing that confused me is who would own a tiebreaker between us and the Bengals so far considering that both the Pats and the Bengals lost to Denver and both beat Baltimore. So, for arguments sake, I put us ahead of the Bengals.

That said, Denver looks strong so far this season, but is in for a rough stretch from this coming weekend on. This Sunday, they travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in what could be a tough game for them (very loseable). The very next week they host Pittsburgh, who has generally been successful in Denver and looks to be back on track with Polamalu back in the line-up. In Weeks 11 and 12, they play the division rival Chargers, which will be a tough game everything considered, and the Giants back to back. Both very loseable games for the Broncos, especially if the Giants can get off the schnide. In Week 14, they go to Indy to take on the Colts in a game that could go either way and two weeks later, they go to Philly to play the Eagles. So, you can see that the Broncos have a very rough stretch of schedule in front of them and can fall all the way to the 4th seed in the AFC if they are not careful, which would be beneficial to us.

As for Indy, our chances to move up into the top seed don't get nearly as lucky with them. They have a three game home stand coming up. On top of that, their schedule is simply a piece of cake. Even easier than our 2008 schedule was, IMO. Indy hosts San Francisco this week. That could be a loss for them, considering they don't know what they are going to see out of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree and San Fran's defense is pretty good, but I doubt it. I think Indy wins this one by 10. The week after that, they play host to the Houston Texans who could very well beat them, being that they are playing good football right now and are a division rival but, again, that game could go either way and I think Indy takes this one too. The week after, we all know who comes to town. I think we'll be the ones to send Indy to their first loss of the season and we should own a tiebreaker over them after that week should both teams end up tied. After that, they go to Baltimore (who Manning has a good history against even when their defense was top notch), to Houston, and host the Titans. If they lose any of those games, it's either going to be to Baltimore or Houston. Right now, I'll put my money on Houston. After that they host Denver, which could go either way and go to Jacksonville which should be another win for them. They close out the schedule hosting the Jets (which is a wash for us) and going to Buffalo in what could be a throw away game for the Colts. They could very well finish the season with only one or two losses.

Bottom line, I see Denver being the only one of the top two that could fall meaning we would be in either the number one or number two seed if we can manage to get through our November blitzkrieg. Good thread bump. Let's revisit this again in a couple of weeks.

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KontradictioN

I think we'll either sweep this schedule or we'll take 4 out of 5. We have two weeks to prepare for the Wildcat, so the game against the Dolphins in Foxboro should be a win.

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borg

The Dolphins defense gave up 73 points combined in those two games...they "should have" given up fewer points