AndyJohnson

Maybe this will work maybe it will not.
The purpose of this thread is for every poster to make one post a week regarding the 'state of the state' of the Pats.
The idea would be that we can review at the end of the season and see how attitudes changed throughout the year, and how perceptions became of didnt become reality.
A few rules will be required. First, everyone is allowed only one post a week. Any additional posts would be deleted.
Second, to keep the integrity of the concept, posts cannot be directed at disagreeing with or arguing with another poster. Those will be deleted, and if posters insist on continuing that approach they will be locked from the thread.
I think this would end up being an interesting exercise and I think there will be interest. If not I will delete the thread. So as not to confuse matters, I will post my state of the state in a separate post (the only allowable violation to the one week rule ).
I'll judge interest by the posts.

By the way, be as long and comprehensive as you wish in your posts, the more the better.
Sort of like everyone doing a Patsfanken post weekly

AndyJohnson

My expectations are that the Pats will go 13-3 and win the SB.
I expect the offense to rival the 2007 offense, but probably not challenge the record because of less scoring late when ahead.
I am optimistic about the defense. We have changed 5 of 11 starters since last year and 7 of 11 in the last 2 with only AD (free agent acquisition) Wilfork and Warren (1st rounders) and Sanders in more than there 2nd year starting.
I believe that the 11 players we put on the field in 2009 would not execute the schemes that the 2008 defense did as well as they did, but that the changes that have been made in personell will result in scheme changes. I am not saying the philosophy will change, I am saying the IMPLEMENTATION of the philosophy will. I fully believe that BB felt his hands were tied to do what he wanted to do with some of the players he was putting on the field, including some that had many positives and had done a lot for this franchise. I think to some extent we have replaced experience, knowledge, reliability with athleticism and talent, and at the same time changed the limitations on what we can do.
I will be willing to predict that the defense will allow fewer points than the 8th rank 2008 unit, 309 and possible the 4th ranked 2007 D (274).
I do expect our base D to be the 34, contrary to what most posters believe, and we will use Burgess as a nickel and dime DE which amounts to half the snaps anyway. I expect him to get about 6-9 sacks, and to be a positive force creating pressure.
Regarding other disputed or controversial topics.
I believe Maroney is our #1 RB and Taylor is 1A. If both are healthy, I expect them to combine for excellent rushing #s splitting them somewhere in the vicinity of equallly (adjusted for health).
I think Wilhite starts all season long, and is our best corner. <all of these are assuming health of course>
I think Meriwhether, Guyton and Woods play better than most expected.
I think everyone will agree at the end of the season that AD was our defensive MVP.
I think our OL will be excellent, and while injuries are sure to occur, we will overcome them without missing a beat because our depth is top notch.

Prediction 13-3 SB Champs
I think we should be the favorite in every game we play, and the 3 losses are eamples of how unbelievable the 2007 season was.

KontradictioN

No, I'll help you out:

I think the offense is going to be just fine, but I have no clue what will happen with the defense. With Seymour gone, we could see longer gains on running plays that go to the left side of the line. Other than that, I have no idea what will happen with Guyton in full time, the transition to the 4-3 or the brand new secondary.

There you go.

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PATS @ COLTS POSTGAME ANALYSIS BLOG IS NOW UP!

jgpatriot

1. Offense - Overall, I believe the offense will score many points except against the Ravens and Jaguars (weather). My only mild concern now is Brady's health due to either bad OL play or a cheap shot by the Titans or Jets.

2. Defense - I believe the 4-3 will be the primary defense, which allow the front four to be more involved in the pass rushing. I do not know what to expect from the secondary yet but I hope the front 7 makes them irrelevant by pressuring the QB with minimal blitzing.

3. My current record guess - (4-2 AFC East) + (3-1 AFC South) + (1-1 AFC place) + (4-0 NFC South) = 12-4 . This is highly depended on Brady playing 16 games.

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WhiZa

This is a great idea. I wouldn't mind having a list of "State of the Pats" from the mediots out there was well. Here are my predictions:

Offense should be top 5 in the league. I do not expect them to break records as the novelty of Moss and Welker has worn off, and teams are more comfortable defending against them. Also, the pats will be leaning more on the run then the past few years.

Defense will be middle of the road. The loss of Seymour will hurt a lot and the secondary still needs some work.

Mayo will make the pro-bowl. In a 4-3 he should be able to get 150 tackles.

Meriweather will increase his int total from last year and be voted in as a backup to the probowl.

Whilite will start over Springs at some point during the season

Chris Baker will have a career year with Brady throwing to him.

Maroney will also have a career year if he makes it 16 games.

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mayoclinic

My week 1 post:

1. I believe our offense will be a hybrid of the 2007 and 2008 offenses. It will have the vertical passing game and aerial firepower of 2007 with Brady back together with Moss and Welker, plus Galloway to stretch the field; but it will have more of a running attack than 2007, with Taylor and LoMo as the primary backs. It won't put up 2007 points or numbers, but will be more balanced. Chris Baker will be a key element, with Watson helping to stretch the field. Matthews will be key as an extra blocker at times, and give Brady some key extra protection in crucial passing situations. I'm guessing that we average around 32 PPG, with about 380 YPG total offense (270 passing and 110 rushing).

2. I believe our defense will be much better than expected, after a few rocky moments in the first half of the season. I think we will run a mixture of 3-4 and 4-3 formations, much more man CB with bump-and-run, and will be much more aggressive and attacking on defense. I hope to see upwards of 40 sacks. I expect Mayo to get somewhere around 140 tackles with 4-6 sacks and cause several turnovers, make the pro bowl and get serious DPOY consideration. I expect Meriweather, Wilfork and Adalius Thomas to also make the pro-bowl, with Thomas getting 9-10 sacks and Derick Burgess 8-10. I expect Ron Brace to become a dominant run stopper in the middle along with Wilfork in 4-3 sets, and to get significant time at 3-4 DE replacing Seymour. I think the run defense will be dominant all season, and the pass defense will struggle a bit early on as the secondary comes together. I expect Bodden and Wilhite to start all season, with Butler as the nickle CB and Shawn Springs finding significant playing time at both CB and FS. I think that if James Sanders gets injured during the season Patrick Chung will take over and not let go of the starting SS job.

3. I think we will finish 14-2 and beat the Giants in the SB. I think the defense will make a few mistakes in the first half of the season costing us a couple of games, with the trolls immediately calling for their heads, but BB will be patient and things will sort themselves out around the bye week. My best guess is that the losses come at home to the Ravens (we often blow at least one key home game a year, and the Ravens D will be tough as always) and at Houston (Houston at home playing for a playoff spot; Pats having clinched best record in the AFC and needing to rest a few key folks).

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mgteich

My week 1 post (others should be shorter)

OFFENSE
This offense has the potential to be the best offense ever to play in NFL. I don't expect the scoring records of 2007, but that is because we'll run more later in games. The running is much better than in 2007, with a troika of top halfbacks and one of the best 3rd down backs in the league. The tight ends have had a major upgrade, even while keeping Watson. The passing game after Moss and Welker is a bit questionable to me. We just don't have a lot of depth, although Galloway could be a major force by the time the playoffs come around. The offensive line is an excellent one, the same one as we've had for awhile. Vollmer and Simmons are major upgrades as backups, and we will still have LeVoir.

The offense will need to win lots of games for us, and I expect them to do so.

DEFENSE - FRONT SEVEN
This is a 2-gap team that needed a couple of DE/OLB pass-rushers. We got them in Burgess and Banta-Cain. I expect that they will be the key to the performance of the front seven. I don't expect to see much of the rookies, but that is my bias. I am fine with Wright starting and Green as a 4-3 DE in his last year. I think Woods will be adequate on rushing downs. The open question for me is 3-4/running down depth at LB, both at OLB and ILB.

DEFENSE - THE SECONDARY
We have the best set of safeties we have had in a very long time, all four in their various roles (including special teams).

The corners are a work in progress. On paper, Bodden and Springs are just what the doctor ordered as Belichick develops the kids. They need to be better than in past years. Much will depend on everyone doing their jobs in the various schemes each week.

BOTTOM LINE
I think that we are a 11-5 team, easily winning the division. And once we are in the second season, we will see. Clearly I believe and expect us to win the Super Bowl. Obviously, we could be a couple of games better if things break well. But record doesn't matter anywhere as much as how strong and healthy the team is when playoff time comes.

Curiously, the vulnerabilities of the team are not ultimately in the secondary. The corners will learn by playoff time and there is plenty of depth.

The vulnerabailities are at QB (as always), WR and LB. We cannot afford an injury to Brady, Moss, Welker, Mayo or Thomas. There is a huge downgrade in the depth players to the degree that there are any. I don't mention Wilfork, obviously one of our stars. The reason is that we do indeed have depth on the DL.

Some would say that this is always the way it is with a team's top players. I would contend that the patriots have historically had a bit better depth.

Aldogg

Good thread, let me post my thoughts.

The key to the offense is keeping Brady healthy. I know last year it was bad seeing Brady go down, but if he goes down again, well we might be in deeper trouble with Hoyer being our only option at the moment. I think the RB situation will be whoever has the hot hand gets the carries. Some weeks it could be Maroney, some weeks Taylor, maybe even the Law Firm might get some burn, Faulk will be the only consistent since he is good at catching the ball out of the backfield. I think Chris Baker might be a forgotten weapon in this offense, I don't see him mentioned too much, but he will make some big plays. I don't know if we will be as explosive as 2007, but with some of these weapons we have, we could.

The defense on the other hand, well I see some question marks based on preseason. I want to see if our corners are able to step up. I have high hopes for Bodden, he was great in Cleveland, not so much in Detroit, but Detroit is where defenders go to die anyway. I think we might not miss Seymour as much as think. The more I think about the trade the more I like it as much the short term as the long term, as I think Green might step in and be good enough. Big Vince is still the key to the line IMO. As for LB, I don't like the lack of depth I see. I think Guyton is going to be a pleasant surprise and Mayo will continue to progress into one of the best MLBs in the league.

I am looking right now at 12-4. I think we win the division. Post season, who knows, anything given Sunday, right? Its going to be weird not seeing Bru, Sey, Vrabs and Rodney out there, but its time for the new batch of Patriots to step into these guys shoes and create a legacy of their own.

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Box_O_Rocks

One game at a time: Week One, Buffalo @ New England

Buffalo roster NFL Players
New England roster Print Friendly Document

-- Buffalo prefers a speedy defense flying around the field and penetrating into the backfield to disrupt the play.
---- The have a notorious Brady abuser in Aaron Schobel coming off an injury that put him on IR last season and they drafted Penn State sack artist Aaron Maybin in an effort to improve their pass rush.
---- Inside they have two decent DT, but the rotation to keep those two lads fresh has been weak in past seasons with no apparent improvement in the off-season.
---- The Linebacker corps is pretty good, anchored on MLB Paul Posluzney. Kawika Mitchell will hold down one OLB slot while Keith Ellison looks to be competing with rookie Nic Harris.
---- CB is pretty young, but talented.
---- Safety has seen some turnover. One of last season's starters was traded to Detroit. They recently signed veteran Brian Williams and they drafted a ball-hawking CB to convert to FS in an effort to get the production they desire out of Safety.

-- New England has the NFL's version of the spread offense built around a pocket passer of all things.
---- Of course that pocket passer is the best QB in the NFL, a projected first ballot Hall of Famer, and worthy of being ranked with the all-time best QBs. He's coming off a season ending knee injury and is still getting comfortable with defenders down around his feet.
---- NE is a mutiple look offense, but they run a lot of three WR formations. Randy Moss is healthy to start the season and based on pre-season he and Brady are already operating on that higher plain which only two All-Pros in complete synchronization seem capable of achieving.
---- Moss and Brady are complemented by jitterbug receiver Wes Welker who is coming off a knee injury. Welker's ability to move the chains finally earned him a Pro-Bowl nod last season. The question for NE is how is Welker's knee?
---- NE added veteran WR and speed burner Joey Galloway and his rocket-powered walker. He was not in-sync with Brady in pre-season, but continued to work on getting on the same page.
---- Special Teams' Captain Sam Aiken and rookie jitterbug Julian Edelman round out the WR corps. Edelman is coming off a knee injury of his own.
---- Tight End saw a near complete turnover in the off-season. Chris Baker looks to reprise the old Daniel Graham role and NE acquired a huge blocking TE to complement Graham and holdover Ben Watson.
---- RB is one of the deeper positions, but also the oldest corps of runners in the NFL.
---- The offensive line returns all five starters, but has seen a complete turnover of the reserve corps with the exception of Mark LeVoir currently on PUP.
-- NE's offense has a clear edge, even if Wes Welker and Julian Edelman are unavailable. If Ne doesn't ahve one of it's slot jitterbugs the TEs and Sam Aiken will team Kevin Faulk to move the chains while Moss and Galloway stretch the field.

-- Buffalo's offense is built around a young QB who has all the tools, but hasn't pulled it together yet.
---- Buffalo has a solid WR corps, augmented by an aging feature WR who is frankly starting to slow, but can still pull off a big play.
---- The RB corps is limited with their starter suspended for this game.
---- TE has seen a great deal of turnover.
---- The O-line returns no starters from last season and starts two rookie Guards.

-- NE's defense is in transition, continued from last season. The defense continues to be a multiple front unit built for situational play, but is reported to be moving from a base 3-4 to a base 4-3. The problem with that report is the number of DL on the roster, even counting the OLB/DE hybrids, is short the number of bodies you'd expect for a 4-3. The more likely scenario is the defense is designed to be a multi-purpose unit with a primary pass defense mission.
---- The DL's old man was traded away for a future 1st round pick. They return two starters and two veteran reserves. They have two impressive rookies whose pre-season efforts had them looking to be strong complements to the returning veterans.
---- OLB has a five-man set of multi-purpose studs, four of whom are capable of playing in any formation, and the fifth a crafty veteran edge rusher who appears to be picking up the auxiliary assignments which will give NE five fully operational OLB/DE hybrids.
---- ILB features two second year players with impressive speed and talent coming off solid rookie seasons and one STs ACE reserve. The primary reserve ILB is one of the starting OLBs, which isn't a drop-off in the least.
---- CB is the big turnover area with a new starter replacing Ellis Hobbs and a returning second year man with four starts under his belt. 2009 features yet another year with a rookie Nickelback, but a highly drafted one. The first three look to have the tools to be a very strong unit with a little tempering in the fire. The reserves have more questions, not the least being their injury status.
---- S returns two solid starters, with the one looking to take yet another step forward as a play-maker. They are backed by a new pair, one rookie and one veteran, plus a STs Ace who is out for this game with an injury.
-- The edge goes to NE's defense with their greater number of returning veterans. There will likely be struggles in the battle between the CB and Buffalo's WRs, but the DL looks like it will have a clear edge over the OL which will limit the running game and pressure Buffalo into mistakes in the passing game.

-- Buffalo always has one of the most dominant Special Teams units in the NFL.
-- NE returns a veteran pair of kickers teamed with a rookie Longsnapper. The coverage units will be an open question mark going into the game with one top Gunner out for the game and many positions uncertain with new players assigned.
-- Edge Buffalo.

NE should jump out to a quick lead while Buffalo struggles to get on track and score. Turnovers aside, NE should score over 30 points while Buffalo will mostly settle for Field Goals.

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teamplay

Week 1 post:

OFFENSE
Solid and consistent. Production, say, halfway between 2007 and 2008.
All bets are off if Brady, Moss, or Welker are injuried. This terrific trio opens up the field unbelievably, making all other parts of the offense look better than they really are.
Expecting more teams to apply max pressure on Brady, remembering the Giants. This will be the biggest test for the O this year.

DEFENSE
This is just a hunch, but I sense there is a big sea change happening in defensive philosophy. I'm not sure why exactly, but I suspect that other teams have developed more sophisticated passing games and the Belichick scheme -- not just the personnel -- is in need of a makeover. I think Belichick and Ernie Adams have been burning the midnight oil since February on a next generation defense.

My primary exhibit for thinking this is that the old bend-don't-break defense has eroded year after year. Where are the days when the D was a leading take-away squad? Belichick says the secondary's first job is to keep the receiver in front of you, yet last year was decidedly unPatriotic in the number of long pass plays. Our secondary got picked, turned, and confused almost every week. I just can't believe this is solely the fault of personnel.

I think Vrabel and Seymour are gone because BB is going to amp up pressure on the quarterback while still staying true to fundamental 2-gap principles of letting the play come to you instead of penetrating. A bit of a paradox, I know. Maybe more zone blitzing; I don't know, but I am most eager to see what they roll out.

I'll go so far as to say that a shift in Belichick defensive philosophy will rival Brady's return to prominence as the lead Patriot stories for the season.

SPECIAL TEAMS
They have been just okay the past few years. We have rule changes, a new coach, and new ST leaders. Will be fun to see if they can become a league leader again.