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Old 11-28-2008, 08:17 AM   #11
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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Originally Posted by dtbrks View Post
while the overal pass defense isn't great, the 3rd down and redzone defense is awful.. if they can't improve these numbers then the playoffs aren't guaranteed.

Third-down defense
59 of 134 (44 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
22 of 33 (66.7 percent)
NFL rank: 31st
I beg to differ. The overall pass defense is pretty bad too. The reason it looks better is because they tend to rank by total yards, where our 215 per game is 18th, middle of the pack.

However, our 7.84 yards per pass attempt allowed is good for 29th in the league. The reason we don't give up as many total yards is because our offense tends to sustain long drives and control the clock.

For that matter, our 4.0 ypc allowed is only 15th in the league, so while our run defense has looked good at times, we're only middle of the road overall there as well.

I think the D has a chance to get better (or just get hot at the right time), but right now there really is no strong suit for the defense that you can point to and say, "That's why this defense will excel in the playoffs."
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Old 11-28-2008, 10:09 AM   #12
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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I beg to differ. The overall pass defense is pretty bad too. The reason it looks better is because they tend to rank by total yards, where our 215 per game is 18th, middle of the pack.

However, our 7.84 yards per pass attempt allowed is good for 29th in the league. The reason we don't give up as many total yards is because our offense tends to sustain long drives and control the clock.

For that matter, our 4.0 ypc allowed is only 15th in the league, so while our run defense has looked good at times, we're only middle of the road overall there as well.

I think the D has a chance to get better (or just get hot at the right time), but right now there really is no strong suit for the defense that you can point to and say, "That's why this defense will excel in the playoffs."
I am shocked that the pass defense is statistically ranked in the middle of the pack. I think it has been shockingly bad at times. We have given up big games to some stinker offenses, and the 3rd and long pass defense has been the worst of the BB era.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:08 AM   #13
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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I am shocked that the pass defense is statistically ranked in the middle of the pack. I think it has been shockingly bad at times. We have given up big games to some stinker offenses, and the 3rd and long pass defense has been the worst of the BB era.
Yeah, like I said, it's deceptive because when people in the mainstream say, "18th ranked pass defense." They're counting yards per game. Going by yards per attempt is a much different story, and one I find more accurate because it isn't affected much by how long the offense controls the ball.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:31 AM   #14
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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Originally Posted by dtbrks View Post
while the overal pass defense isn't great, the 3rd down and redzone defense is awful.. if they can't improve these numbers then the playoffs aren't guaranteed.

Third-down defense
59 of 134 (44 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
22 of 33 (66.7 percent)
NFL rank: 31st
I think those stats are the key stats. Third down efficiency on both sides of the ball is the most underrated stat in football, while the one the NFL uses to rank teams including rushing and passing offenses and defenses(total yards) may be one of the more overrated. I think most team's success on both sides of the ball really depends on how successful they are on third downs. Can you keep drives alive consistently on offense and can you kill drives on defense?

For the Pats to have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, the defense needs to improve quite a bit in the two areas described. You cannot have a bend, but don't break defense and break 2 out of every 3 time the opposing offense gets in the red zone.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:34 AM   #15
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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I think there's a chance that BB is playing this year like a rebuild year and the success they've had so far actually surprises him. Nothing else could explain not picking up a Law or Colvin in FA, other than that the idea is to get rookies valuable experience this year in prep for next.
That is a very cogent observation that I have also been maintaining for quite a while. It is not just those two people either. He let Hobson go, and never called Seau in. He kept all the youngsters and cut many of the secondary vets he brought in. He hasn't feared to play the youngsters either. Mayo, Guyton, Woods, at LB and Meriwether, Wheatley, Whilite, Richardson have seen extensive playing time. Even on the Defensive line, the reserves have been getting snaps to both rest the starters, and give them experience.

BB started rebuilding his Defense in the off-season and on the fly. He didn't expect that he would be playing a new QB too, and he has developed Matt Cassel too. Still the Team is near the top ten in production despite the youth and inexperience. I predict that it will be awesome next year and subsequently, with more experience and a further infusion of talent. Meanwhile enjoy a winning season and see how far it goes, while BB rebuilds.
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Old 11-28-2008, 12:02 PM   #16
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Default Re: Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

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Third down efficiency on both sides of the ball is the most underrated stat in football
I think 1st and 2nd down efficiency is more important. I would rather worry more about getting on 1st base or hit a double and get to 2nd base before I worry about 3rd base. And besides your opponent has just as much pressure converting 3rd downs as you do stopping it. On 2nd downs and 1st downs the pressure is all on the defense and not as much on offense, well I guess how many yards you need to get for the next first down puts pressure on the offense.
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