Welcome back Workhorse, always good to talk football with a rational fan, even of the wrong team.
I think it has the potential to be an excellent and hard fought game, although not for the same reasons we all thought it would be preseason. More of a battle of the mid-packs, but regardless of the health, ability and standing s of these two teams, there will always be a rivalry that will make the games special into the foreseeable future.
The Colts passing game was clearly off last night. It sounds like you are putting most of the blame on Manning but I believe that if the receiver can put both hands on the ball they should catch it. There were some blatant drops and tips by most if not all of a veteran receiving crew. Manning did seem to do his happy feet dance even more than usual so maybe something is going on there.
If I were the Colts, I would put massive pressure on Cassel and force him to make quick decisions, something he hasn't really shown the ability to do. Pats o-line is inconsistent and Cassel is a slow reader with a mid-pack release. They have been moving down the field OK but are weaker than they should be in the red zone, too many FG's, not enough TD's. If the Colts can get 6 sacks and a handful of hurries they'll probably win.
OTOH, he's notched a few wins and you can see a dramatic improvement in his presence in the pocket and ability to step up into a throw. The physical ability was always there and the mental side is finally starting to show, he's improving every game and we haven't seen a ceiling yet.
On offense, the Pats secondary is all over the map and with the Colts air game better than most even in a weak year it's the obvious approach. If Peyton and his receivers can get their mojo back they will win going away. If Wilfork gets suspended for being an idiot yet again, that will open up the front line for the run.
Keys to the game for the Pats will be a short passing game to Welker and Faulk, let Moss run a few more of those pitch and run crossing routes when he's not drawing two defenders down the long end of the field, and find a way to keep the Colts scoring low enough to let the offense keep up.
I predict 30-27 Pats if Wilfork plays.