Urgent

Another point to consider.

Scenario 1: Pats assign franchise tag to Cassel.
Scenario 2: They don't.

In Scenario 1, the trading teams recognize that the Pats not only have no value in retaining Cassel, they have an enormous negative value and need to trade him. If Cassel stays, the Pats have $29mm in cap tied up in QB's.
So, realistically, what will teams offer? Certainly not two Firsts. Maybe a third? Let's assume it's a third for this argument, and folks can debate it.

In Scenario 2, Cassel enters free agency and signs with another team. We recognize that as a free agent, Cassel should gain a larger salary than in a trade. In a trade, part of Scenario 1, the trading team assigns a total value to Cassel and divides that value between the salary they pay Cassel and the value of the draft pick they use to trade for him. In Scenario 2, whatever that value is, all of it goes to Cassel in free agency. Thus, in free agency, Cassel should earn more money than the limited freedom under a franchise tag trade.
So, realistically, what would Cassel earn in free agency?
Matt Schaub signed a 6 year $48mm deal two seasons ago, or $8mm a year two years ago.
Let's just assume Cassel signs a deal averaging $7mm.

Under Scenario 2, then, the Patriots would be awarded a Third round draft pick for compensation for the loss of Cassel.

This analysis, then, shows that the upside to the Pats for the risk of $14mm in a cap hit is the difference between a Third and a Fourth round draft pick.
Is the drop-off between 2009 Cassel and 2009 O'Connell worth that risk?

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MoLewisrocks

I think it's unrealistic to think if he's viable to tag he's only worth a 3rd...that's trying to frame the scenario contrary to precedent to support your underlying argument. Again, Schaub had never won a game and he netted a swap of firsts plus a 2nd in consecutive drafts. And any comp pick for Cassel comes in 2010 and ONLY if we do not sign a FA who wipes out that comp.

As for Cassel losing the difference between what that traded draft pick would have cost, being tagged under his circumstances would be tantemount to an endorsement from this FO! The team that really wants you will throw caution to the wind for fear the other guy will land you. Atlanta started out offering a second for Abraham. The JETS wanted Schaub and picks. Seattle offered a first and more money for the player. But by then Abraham decided he wanted to be in Atlanta with Vick and Co (LOL). He refused to even negotiate with Seattle. Still, Atlanta - who would not budge on Schaub that season - made the deal to secure a lower first they could trade for Abraham lest Seattle's interest and bigger contract offer start to soften his stance.

Bill is a calculated risk taker. He signed a reportedly washed up SS to a $16M deal many thought was insanity when we had pro bowler Lawyer Milloy resisting a $1M restructure back in the day when the cap was double digits and we were up against it. Bill traded a pro bowl QB to a division rival for a 1st. Bill tagged Tebucky Jones (whom the Saints cut 2 years later)...and got Corey Dillon, Dexter Reid and Tully Banta Cain for as his risk reward.

Urgent

I understand that using Abraham as an example makes some sense, because he was franchised and then traded.

However, Abraham went to several Pro Bowls (2001, 2002, 2004) before being traded.
He was a former First Round pick and elite athlete.
His stats included sacks of 10.5 (2005, before the trade), 9.5 (12 games), 6 (7 games), 10, and 13. He had several years of elite-for-his-position performance.

While Cassel plays QB, a more valuable position, another thread points out he is currently rated the fourth-best starting QB, out of four, in the AFC East -- behind Pennington, notably. We don't need to point out how many Pro Bowls Cassel has been to.

Another comparison pulled out is Bledsoe, who was traded for a first. Bledsoe was also a former Pro Bowl player (1994, 1996, 1997), led the league in passing yardage, and led his team to the Super Bowl.

While I agree that Cassel could get $5mm a year at a minimum in free agency, and possibly as much as $8mm, I disagree that he is comparable to a multiple-time Pro Bowler in trade comp.

An argument can be made that a third is too low for trade value. I disagree, but it's possible.
It's tough to argue that Cassel would command a first, like Bledsoe or Abraham. He's just not comparable in performance. Further, the dynamics weaken the Pats negotiating position, as discussed above.

__________________
"Your father was a truck driver, Ray?"
- Trombley

Disco Volante

There's only one way to deal with this.

1) Franchise Cassel
2) Cut Brady, wait for him to be picked up by new team
3) Trade Cassel for Brady
4) ???
5) Profit

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PatsFanSince74

We really can't know the answer to this question until January...maybe February.

But if you look at Miguel's data on the top five QB salaries (Peyton, $18.7; Tommy $14.6; Carson $13.9; Favre $12.0 and Eli $11.4) and a Franchise tage of $14.1, it seems to me that, if Cassel has a lights out season and gets them into the Playoffs, the Pats would have nothing to lose by offering him $10 ($4 under the tag salary) and daring him to find a team that would pay him as much as Eli Manning or Brett Favre. Of course, should the Pats end up in Tampa in February, win or lose, they'd probably have to tag him.

At some point in here, tho, we do have to start to factor into our thinking the fact that the cap might well blow up permanently in two years; in which case, the Pats will be one of the Major Market teams in a position to throw some real money around.

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