TrueBeliever

There's been a lot of talk here over the last month about the significance of the preseason performance of a team. But a few years ago I came up with a bold theory that takes this argument a step further and in a new direction.

My theory is the first regular season game is really the last preseason game. It's the first time a team takes the field knowing the game really matters and that they'll be playing with the guys standing next to them for the full 60 minutes. There's still some rust to be shaken off that just doesn't come off in the preseason. You have to kick it back up a notch, and at this level of play it still takes some time to get back into that gear.

There are a dozen examples. Last year the Browns looked horrible in Week 1 and everyone said Romeo Crennell wouldn't last the season - then they almost made the playoffs. Or take the 2001 Carolina Panthers, who beat Minnesota at Minnesota to open the season - then lost the next 15. Or the 1996, 2001, and 2003 Patriots - who looked terrible the first game of the season and went on to the Super Bowl (winning it two of those seasons.)

Or there's how mediocre the Pats looked in the season opener against Buffalo two years ago.

Or there's the borderline snoozer from this past Thursday night.

This is why I don't put much stock in the preseason - football is a team game. These guys need time to gel and get in a rhythm. You can't do that in camp and practice when you're playing against the same players all the time, you can't do it in the preseason because you aren't in that much and when you are there's a lot of rotation on both your team and the other team.

Course I'm sure you can find a zillion examples of where this theory doesn't apply. Take last year's Pats, who exploded in Week 1 and won the next 15 games. Considering they didn't play together in preseason, Tom Brady and Randy Moss fit together like a hand and glove. No theory is absolute.

Thoughts?

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IcyPatriot

Every year I say the same thing ... the way Belichick brings the team along ... what kind of team he really has starts showing up somewhere between weeks 6-8 in the season. Mostly this shows up in what plays and schemes become predominant on both sides of the ball.

Wax Frog

The flatness of the first week or two, and the sense that teams reach "full speed" by mid-October, are things I have noticed as well. There will always be exceptions, but I think the overall idea is sound.

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HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

When you open against the Chiefs, it's just a warmup for the starting offense and defense. I'm sure the Pats are treating this as a practice game. I'd be suprised if they actually are taking the Chiefs seriously.

TheComeback

This is the NFL, and any team can win on any weekend. The Patriots would be incredibly arrogant to treat the Chiefs as a "practice" game; every game counts, and I expect them to do everything necessary to win.

shakadave

I just want to say that I love theories in general.

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rusH1023

Sure, I buy some of that. This season especially because of our schedule. It shouldn't be taken lightly, but let's face it: we are playing inferior teams the first few weeks.

Belichick spoke to the media and referred to Jimmy Johnson's 'Boys not even doing a scouting report on Belichick's Browns one year because the next game was much tougher. It was more of a joke, but still a reality.

JoePats

You wouldn't have this theory if the Pats were opening with the Colts...and there is no way the Pats are taking this game lightly.

TrueBeliever

This isn't about "taking things lightly". My point is that we can expect to see more mistakes, miscues and blown plays in the first game because the team still isn't back up to speed. I never said anything about the players or coaches or anybody not taking the game seriously.

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PatriotNMP43

For teams like miami the whole season is preseason.

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