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Old 08-21-2008, 04:55 PM   #1
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Default My statistical case against keeping a long snapper

Over the past 7 years we have played 16x7+17=129 games. How many games have been won or lost by less than 3 points...only 3! or 3/129=2.3%. Now change that to less than 4 points and the number jumps to 25/129=19%!! Call it a round 20%....

Now what percentage of SNAPS does Paxton get right? And what percentage does Hochstien/working backup get right?

Since 2002 there have been 453 attempts or an avg of 75/yr for the pats. If you figure a non-specialist makes say 4 bad snaps a year....or 5%.

The odds that ONE of those bad snaps would happen in a close game--You get 1%!! That means you would lose a game on a bad snap based on having a non specialist save a roster spot once every 6 years. Now how many times have we run out of decent players at a position and it costs us a game?? More than 1%?? YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT!! Nothing personal Lonnie, hope you have secret pics of BB in a safe place.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:57 PM   #2
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffbiologist View Post
Over the past 7 years we have played 16x7+17=129 games. How many games have been won or lost by less than 3 points...only 3! or 3/129=2.3%. Now change that to less than 4 points and the number jumps to 25/129=19%!! Call it a round 20%....

Now what percentage of SNAPS does Paxton get right? And what percentage does Hochstien/working backup get right?

Since 2002 there have been 453 attempts or an avg of 75/yr for the pats. If you figure a non-specialist makes say 4 bad snaps a year....or 5%.

The odds that ONE of those bad snaps would happen in a close game--You get 1%!! That means you would lose a game on a bad snap based on having a non specialist save a roster spot once every 6 years. Now how many times have we run out of decent players at a position and it costs us a game?? More than 1%?? YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT!! Nothing personal Lonnie, hope you have secret pics of BB in a safe place.
This year.... preseason, game 2.....

End of story.

P.S. My point is about a 'non-specialist' and the result of a bad snap, not the specific people involved in the specific play.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:59 PM   #3
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

Wow, this one sounds familiar:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-...6270#post96270

May 2006 thread titled: "There's no way Lonie Paxton makes this team."

Brilliant.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:02 PM   #4
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

When doing your analysis, did you forget that we occasionally run this obscure play known as the punt that also requires a long snapper?

Last edited by dhamz; 08-21-2008 at 05:42 PM..
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:04 PM   #5
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

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Originally Posted by Deus Irae View Post
This year.... preseason, game 2.....

End of story.
That was Dan Connolly, not Lonie Paxton.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:06 PM   #6
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

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That was Dan Connolly, not Lonie Paxton.
.... exactly
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:06 PM   #7
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

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Now what percentage of SNAPS does Paxton get right? And what percentage does Hochstien/working backup get right?
For the record, I have never seen one of Paxton's "backups" actually long-snap in a game. Hochstein or Stupar, who were Paxton's "backups" in camp this year, have never long snapped in a game, IIRC.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:08 PM   #8
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

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Originally Posted by Deus Irae View Post
.... exactly
Gotcha, misunderstood.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:29 PM   #9
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhamz View Post
When doing your analysis, did you forget that we occasionally run this obscure play known as the punt that also requores a long snapper?
I vaguely remember hearing of those... Pats didn't use that play too many times last year....but doesn't a PAT kick also require the long snapper... we had bunch of those plays.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:31 PM   #10
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Default Re: My statistical case against keeping a Long Snapper

There's lies....damn lies...and STATISTICS!

BB will never,ever,ever.....like,ya know,
NEVER.go without a designated Long-snapper.

.......don't even go there
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