BradyManny

Hernandez or Gronk can both do that. Gronk running down 5 yards and posting up is as effective a short passing game as you'll get; and Hernandez doing like-wise with his YAC ability is also dangerous. No, neither one gets open the way Wes does - nobody does. But the short passing game will not be an issue.

Believe me Deus, I do not take the idea of parting with Welker lightly - it feels about as good as imagining Brady in another uniform or Belichick leaving and coaching another team.

But the reality is, there are a few teams in this league that have been a thorn in our side the last 5 years; and coupled with some terrible luck, poor officiating and untimely injuries, have derailed several championship bids. We cannot control those things - we can only control how we stack up against those teams. If we want to improve our chances of winning the title, we have to get faster on the outside and more versatile. And, sadly, we can't expect to do those two things while retaining Welker at the price he deserves and demands. It's heartbreaking for fans, but that's probably the way it is. He deserves to get paid, and the Pats won't have the cap space for it.

The offensive philosophy McDaniels adopted to start last season has merit in theory, but at the time, his philosophy had no bearing on reality given it made no sense to keep Welker off the field for much lesser receivers in Lloyd or Edelman. However, if the Patriots move on from Wes and Lloyd, they have money to address the position the way they truly want. I expect that they will.

Ivan

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If the reports on Harvin's contract demands are accurate then he won't be here no matter what the trade price is. Gronkowski and Hernandez are already here and letting Welker walk still leaves a massive hole that cannot be replaced without grossly overpaying for a replacement, and other than Harvin i can't think of anyone who is available who could come anywhere close to replacing his production-100+REC and lead the league in YAC and first downs. Julian Edelman's career is a month for Welker, and there is nothing in free agency that can take his place.

They may let him walk, but if they do so without getting a real replacement then it will be the biggest mistake Belichick has ever made and they will pay dearly for it, especially if he goes to a team like Denver.

Deus Irae

Neither can do it. That's the point. Well, to be more accurate, Hernandez can do it a little, if he's got the right matchup, but only Welker has the ability to do it consistently.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

Ivan

I love Gronk and Hernandez but neither can get open instantly, Welker can. Both are good receivers in the middle but neither gets open in under 2 seconds, and that is what allows Brady to avoid blitzes all season and saves him a massive beatdown.

MoLewisrocks

Actually it's $12.8M combined on AAV. And their combined cap hits over the next 3 years when Welker would be on the roster and hitting the cap would average $9.7M combined. And the core has been a little sketchy durability wise compared to Welker. That's one of the issues this team continues to grapple with come playoff time. Not to mention as DI did they don't operate in exactly the same areas. And Welker isn't looking for $10M per. Closer to $8M+.

Rentals are cap and roster depth/young developmental talent killers over time. We've wasted quite a few picks on those over the last few seasons already.

goheels22002

Definitely not. This is a year with no extra draft picks in the early rounds. My feeling is that the #1 and #2 should be used on defense for a DB and a pass rusher in whatever order makes sense given who is on the board.

Please think about this: Brady has a short shelf life in 2013. What the Patriots need to become is a team that wins with their defense while the transition to a new signal caller is underway in 2015 or so. Now is the time to grab the best young defensive talent possible so that the defense is maturing as the offense undergoes its renewal.

Last year's draft was a huge step in that direction with Hightower, Jones, Dennard and Wilson but the job is not complete.

BradyManny

You're selling Gronk short - Gronk is permanently open. And his catch-radius is unmatched. He can run down 5 yards, turn and snatch it wherever Brady wants to throw it.

Deus Irae

I'm not selling Gronk short at all. Gronk can't shake loose in 5 yards. It's not his skill at the NFL level. Within 5 yards, Gronk either has position or he doesn't, but that's based upon the defender, not on him. Welker can flat-out get open by beating his man in that short space. What you're basically saying is that Gronk is open even when he's not open.

There's a difference.

__________________
"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius

Ivan

Imo this was why Belichick went after Welker in the first place. after a season where Brady took a beating waiting for Reche Caldwell and Co. to get open he wanted a player who could give Brady an immediate relief from the blitz, Welker gave them that and went on to give them unprecedented production beyond that. There simply is no player available who can replace that, Welker needs to be re-signed.

BradyManny

We've also wasted just shy of a dozen 2nd & 3rd picks on college players in the last five years. Whether used to draft or flipped for vets, anything after the 1st round takes on considerable risk and the likelihood of a disappointing ROI. Belichick has been among the best out of getting something out of those picks, and he's done it in a variety of ways.

I have no problem with the team's approach with Talib/Ocho/Haynesworth. It was worth a shot in each case, and the likelihood is that the returns we got on them, however small, would not have been exceeded by the players drafted in their place.

In this case, the one year rental would also pay off in a compensation pick that might be no more than a round later than what we'd give up. That's not a steep price.

Again, don't get me wrong. I'd love to keep Welker. Especially if its at 8M a year, but we know he can get more. And is worth more.

No one is going to argue that keeping Welker doesn't improve the team. It's just a question of how best to allocate the dollars.