Bedard: let six free agents walk - Page 3 - New England Patriots Forums

**Ian** · 02-10-2013, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sticky Caulk

I typed the numbers from a page that had 13, for one reason or another. I, somehow, didn't notice.

No worries.

Here are his numbers over 16 games from this season:

Targets: 130
Receptions 74
Yards: 911
YPC: 12.3
1st downs: 50
Touchdowns: 4

***Deus Irae*** · 02-10-2013, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ian

On paper I don't fault Bedard pondering letting Welker and Lloyd walk - the problem is history has shown that finding viable receivers either in the draft or via free agency in this offense seems to be next to impossible. So if they lose Welker, I don't see how they can take the chance letting Lloyd go.

Indeed.....

Under Belichick, the problem has rarely, if ever, been who the Patriots have let go. It's almost always been the inability to find an adequate replacement for that player, the timing of the move, or both.

***AndyJohnson*** · 02-10-2013, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deus Irae

This sort of output is why I follow Bedard for his reporting, and not his analysis.

Apparently the Globe has become a pay site. That is fine, because Bedards reporting will get re-reported and his analysis can be limited to people who find any value in it, and wish to pony up.

**Ian** · 02-10-2013, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

I don't know how you can justify letting your #2 go to save 2.5mill when you are letting your #1 go, conceivably because you can't afford him.

Exactly, not without some sort of a real plan to replace them. If they're going to got that route and completely revamp their receiving corps, it's a dangerous proposition considering how bad the luck they've had in bringing guys in. After failing it's lead them to bring back veteran retreads who know the system but can't play anymore - and we've seen how well that's worked out

***mgteich*** · 02-10-2013, 11:51 AM

Lloyd had 2 $3M bonuses, no more. The second is an option bonus due this year, presumably in the next month. This can be avoided. Yes, we would still be on the hook for $2M of the original bonus.

I disagree with your analysis. I agree with your conclusion. I actually liked having Lloyd as part of the offense. He was a dependable #2 WR.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

That is not accurate, capwise.
Cutting him now would cost 2 mill.
Excersing his bonus and contract would result in a cap hit of 4.5mill this year and 5.5 next.
So the net impact of keping vs cutting is 2.5mill this year and 4.5 next.

Yes it will cost double that to sign a good WR that will keep our offense in the area it is, esp if you are letting Welker walk too.
Letting both go will basically guarantee a big step back from the offense, but hey Bedard's plan lets us keep Edelman, Woodhead (an unnecessary cost after seeing what Vereen can do) and Arrington. Woohooo, if we are lucky we could have a top 10 offense to go with a bottom 10 defense.

**Ian** · 02-10-2013, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyJohnson

Apparently the Globe has become a pay site. That is fine, because Bedards reporting will get re-reported and his analysis can be limited to people who find any value in it, and wish to pony up.

No - you can read it. You just have to find the article in Google and click on it from there. It's the direct clicks that seem to bring you to a pay wall.

borg · 02-10-2013, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sticky Caulk

Has one person that wants to let Welker go come up with a real solution to the receiver problem if that happens? Who replaces that production without costing as much, if not more than Welker will?

Releasing Lloyd is also a terrible idea. He wasn't signed to be Calvin Johnson. His numbers were way above the receivers that have been in his position the past few years.

Why do you think Ocho never saw the ball? Sure, he wasn't close to a great route runner and he came into new England slower than his Cincy days, but really, he wasn't a high priority target. Neither is Lloyd. Considering that, Lloyd did pretty well, almost exactly half of what Welker does as the top weapon on offense

Welk 2012: 16 games 118 Rec. for 1,354 yards and 6 TDs
Lloyd 2012: 13 games 57 Rec. for 650 yards and 4 TDs
Lloyd 2010: 16 games 77 Rec. for 1,448 yards and 11 TDs
Ocho 2011: 15 games 15 Rec. for 276 yards and 1 TD

Remember the type of routes Welker usually runs. Which part of the field he runs them in. You will not find someone who can take the consistent hitting of the slot and put up numbers even close to Welker's without spending a lot more time and money than it would take to just keep him.

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era. When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.
The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

p8ryts · 02-10-2013, 11:57 AM

Ok with Welker leaving.
Talib will want too much money
Lloyd is worth his contract
How about this as a money saver? Trade Mankins, sign Thomas. Mankins ought to be worth a number 1. Mankins is breaking down, Thomas did well in his place last year.
Keep Vollmer.
Somebody mentioned rebuilding. What? This team has been rebuilding for three years. Yes we could use a coverage middle linebacker, yes we could use a top flight SS, yes we could use a big fast WR. Who doesn't? Bill will tweak, fans will freak and we will compete for the division championship, the afc championship and maybe the super bowl.

***AndyJohnson*** · 02-10-2013, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by p8ryts

Ok with Welker leaving.
Talib will want too much money
Lloyd is worth his contract
How about this as a money saver? Trade Mankins, sign Thomas. Mankins ought to be worth a number 1. Mankins is breaking down, Thomas did well in his place last year.
Keep Vollmer.
Somebody mentioned rebuilding. What? This team has been rebuilding for three years. Yes we could use a coverage middle linebacker, yes we could use a top flight SS, yes we could use a big fast WR. Who doesn't? Bill will tweak, fans will freak and we will compete for the division championship, the afc championship and maybe the super bowl.

The cap hit of trading Mankins is higher than the cap hit of keeping hit.

vuudu · 02-10-2013, 12:09 PM

Resign Arrington? What value does he bring other than just running around?