Fencer

What I think will happen, as separate as possible from what I think should happen:

• Talib will be back. Too obvious a fit.
• Arrington will be back, on the theory that he's consistently good as slot CB and intermittently good as #2 outside CB. He won't command the big money elsewhere he might have gotten a year ago.
• Welker will walk, for maximum money elsewhere, as the security blanket for a second-tier QB and for the GM who paid that QB.
• Woodhead will walk for maximum money elsewhere, in our most gracious FA departure since David Givens'.
• Edelman will be back. (That's pretty obvious if Welker goes.)
• Vollmer will stay. This is a reversal of my previous opinion that he will leave for LT money elsewhere, but I now think there will be too many question marks hanging over his health for him to get it.
• Chung of course will not be back.
• There won't be any great offers for Mallett.

What are your thoughts?

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bigballas

agree with most except i think Woody stays. No one is really going to offer him much more and he specializes in NE offense.

Sciz

Stay: Arrington, Edelman
Go: Welker, Woodhead, Vollmer, Chung

I'm torn on Talib. I don't know if it will be him or someone else, but they'll find a CB somewhere.

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DocHoliday

I can't bear the thought of Woodhead leaving.

The only guy that was still playing hard in the SB in the fourth quarter.

Just can't see Woody, Vereen, and Demps all staying unless Vereen or Demps converts to WR.

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eom

it's hard to imagine all those guys staying unless they really want to be here and nowhere else.
I just can't see the pats outbidding the market.

woody won't command much, but I doubt the pats want to pay him much.
arrington is a slot corner here, but could get starting money elsewhere, as corners are always in demand.
talib is just as likely to sign anywhere, and I can't see the pats throwing money at him.
and vollmer is another one --- if they were going to pay him, couldn't they have already extended him?
some team will make vollmer a fat offer, I think.

supafly

I'm not nearly as sure as you are regarding Talib.

His play, health, and past concerns haven't really been answered enough to warrant a multi-year deal here, unless he decides to take a one-year prove it deal or one with incentives galore. If he is offered a 2-3 yr deal here, it will certainly be for no more than about 5-6 million per year, so he'd have to take somewhat of a team friendly, hometown discount.

A week or so ago, it sounded like that was a possibility. The recent comments Monday afternoon were nowhere near as optimistic, and he used the past tense quite a lot when speaking of the team itself and his potential future here.

One also has to take into acct the fact that N.England is a very good place to come to showcase yourself and get back in the NFL teams' good graces. It draws an awful lot of attention to you, the players get to play in some of the biggest showcase games of the season in primetime (3x in the regular season, not to mention CBS' showcase games of the week against Indy and the regular season finale vs Miami). That's 5 primetime games out of his 6-7 games here in the regular season, + the 2 playoff games where the whole country watched or heard about him and the newly rejuvenated defense that all the mediots claimed was solely due to Talib's presence.

The real fans seem to know the truth, and the fact that he really only played in about 1/2 of the snaps due to not being able to stay healthy. Regardless, he went from the outhouse to the penthouse in approx. a month or so.

I'm guessing that he and his agent will take full advantage of this opportunity based on common sense and his past indicators, but I certainly hope that he stays. If he does, Belichick and the front office will be damn cautious with his contract, so it's basically all up to him. In my opinion, he just doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that is going to stay based on comraderie and the team concept, but again...I hope that I am wrong.

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mgteich

I do not expect Woodhead to go. Other than that I agree, except that Vollmer might cost a bit more than you think.

supafly

I think that Edelman stays, Vollmer goes to another team for better money, Chung is no longer wanted here so he goes, Woodhead is 50/50, Talib is about 70/30 that he goes somewhere else for better money/longer term pact, Arrington stays due to your reasoning of being able to be more effective in the slot but also providing outside starter capability, and finally...Welker stays after being initially franchised again, only this time they agree to a 2-3 year deal prior to the middle of July.

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eom

assuming demps makes the roster -- 5 rb next year?

Fencer

My argument for Talib staying pretty much boils down to:

• He's worth modestly more here than elsewhere, because of need and because he seems more likely to behave in a high-quality program.
• Most guys would accept a modest discount to say with the Patriots.
• The first two points are enough to balance the Pats' insistence that expensive guys accept some level of discount versus their value to the Pats.

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