Patriots - Colts AFC Championship Game, Who Has the Razor's Edge? Key Matchups
The AFC is down to two, and familiar foes face off again as the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts will meet in Foxboro to determine who moves on to the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona in February. The Patriots as the #1 seed will remain home in Foxboro on Sunday evening at Gillette Stadium.
The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS with Jim Nance and Phil Simms on the call. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. The NFC game between Seattle and Green Bay will be carried by FOX Sports.
The Patriots (13-4) defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round 35-31 on Saturday as Tom Brady hit Brandon LaFell for a 23 yard touchdown for the Patriots first lead of the game after rallying the team from a pair of 14 point deficits. Duron Harmon intercepted Joe Flacco with a minute and a half left to seal the victory.
The Colts (13-5) defeated the Denver Broncos 24-13 in Denver. Andrew Luck out-dueled his predecessor, Peyton Manning while passing for 265 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts defense stymied Manning and the Broncos, holding C.J. Anderson to 80 yards and taking away the Broncos deep passing attack.
Series History:
The Patriots and Colts have met four times in the playoffs with the Patriots holding a 3-1 advantage. The Patriots won the last meeting a 43-22 divisional playoff game last January in Foxboro. The two teams met in Indianapolis in November during the regular season with the Patriots beating the Colts 42-20.
Here is a look at the PatsFans.com key matchups and who holds the “Razor’s Edge”:
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Patriots RBs vs Colts Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The last two times the teams have met the Patriots have run for a combined 480 yards. They rushed for 234 yards in the Divisional Playoffs with LaGarrette Blount rushing for 166 followed and four touchdowns. This was followed by a 246 yard effort in November as Jonas Gray burst on the scene with 200 yards with four touchdowns. The Patriots took advantage of a smaller Colts front seven by using an extra offensive lineman and simply overwhelming Indy at the point of attack.
There is some flux along the Patriots offensive line with center Bryan Stork unlikely to play in this one after suffering a knee injury in the Baltimore game. That will force Ryan Wendell back to center from right guard and Josh Kline moving in to start at guard. The Colts have Arthur Jones back in the middle for this one after missing the game in November. Jones, Josh Chapman and Cory Redding will need a big effort to blow up the plays in the backfield before they get to the second level.
Look for LaGarrette Blount to get the majority of snaps in this one. Jonas Gray has had only 35 snaps total since the Indy game in November and wasn’t even active for the Ravens game. Will he play or even be active? How crazy is that?
The Patriots should be able to run, but nowhere near as effectively as in the last two games against Indy. Look for the Colts to crowd the box a little tighter this time and try to force the Patriots into becoming more one-dimensional.
Patriots WRs vs Colts Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Patriots passing game against Baltimore consisted of death by a 1000 cuts as Tom Brady went to the short passing game in lieu of the running game and was getting the ball out in about two seconds to negate the powerful Ravens pass rush.
Indy stymied the Broncos passing attack with Vontae Davis getting credit for five passes defensed. He’ll be matched up with Julian Edelman in this one. A big matchup will be Brandon LaFell against Greg Toler on the other side. The Patriots will be looking to push the ball down the field more this week.
LaFell has given the Patriots something that they’ve lacked for many years, a big, physical wide receiver that can go into contested spaces, bring down the pass and make yards after catch. His 23 yard game-winning touchdown was a testament on how much trust Brady has in him.
Brady also has Danny Amendola who has come on during the second half of the season and had two big touchdown receptions last week. Shane Vereen is a threat out of the backfield as well as being split wide and being isolated on a linebacker.
But as we said in an All-22 piece before the November game, Indy’s biggest weakness is the middle of the field in their pass defense. The Colts simply don’t have anyone who can matchup effectively with Rob Gronkowski. He’s the big target this week for both teams. With Tom Brady able to zip the ball with authority look for the Patriots to attack the intermediate area of the field with deep curl routes and back shoulder throws, something Manning was unable to do.
 Darrelle Revis is the Patriots biggest asset on their defense. (USA TODAY Images) |
When the Colts Have the Ball
Colts RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Colts
The Colts offensive line has had to be reworked and has been together only two games but is playing very well. With Ahmad Bradshaw on IR and Trent Richardson being inactive due to ineffective production, the Colts have leaned on Dan “Boom” Herron and Zurlon Tipton in the running game.
They combined for 25 carries for 77 yards against the stout run defense of Denver and were able to be big parts of the final scoring drive where the Colts held the ball for over eight minutes. It was a big part of the win and showed they can rely on their running game to close out an opponent in crunch time.Neither played a role in the November meeting.
The Patriots had trouble stopping the stretch run plays of the Ravens as Justin Forsett ran 24 times for 129 yards. The zone and cut-blocking schemes consistently took Vince Wilfork and Sealver Siliga out of the plays allowing Forsett to get to the second level. Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins will look to be shooting some gaps to disrupt things.
The Colts scheme is a little different but they’ll be able to generate some yards on the ground. The key for New England is to not allow them to get into too many third and short situations.
Colts WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Andrew Luck is one of the best young quarterbacks in the game; throwing for 40 TDs in the 2014 season and can light it up with anyone. He has some excellent weapons in the passing game with T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Donte Moncrief as well as TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
The offensive line did a fantastic job of keeping the Denver pass rush off of Luck in the playoff game last week. Luck was frequently able to find his second or third option in the passing game as a result. He’ll need that kind of time again this week as we pointed out in a piece from PatsFans.
The Patriots have the defensive pieces to shut down their best option (Hilton) with a shutdown corner (Revis) but how will the Patriots approach this. Last time they put Revis on Wayne and Kyle Arrington on Hilton. But Wayne is hobbled now and hasn’t been a big factor the past few weeks.
Look for NE to mix up their coverages, and pass rush, they have to contain Luck in the pocket, if he can get to the outside and make plays with his feet, it will be a long evening. Jamie Collins will play a key role this week as he did in January’s playoff game. Look for Akeem Ayers to see increased snaps in this one as the pass rush needs to step it up.
The key again is limiting the Colts in the red zone; Dwayne Allen is a big target who missed nearly the entire first matchup with an injury. Fleener had his way with Brandon Browner in the first matchup and should see more of Collins in this one.
Luck is going to get his yardage, but forcing them to settle for a few FGs and a turnover or two will go a long way to winning this matchup. And Luck is prone to forcing the ball in tight spaces at times especially to Hilton. The Patriots have had the advantage against Luck the first three times they’ve met. Eventually he’s going to figure out this Belichick defense. New England is just hoping it isn’t this week.
 Danny Amendola has ignited the Patriots return game as well as given a boost to the passing game in the second half of the season. (USA TODAY Images) |
Special Teams/Prediction
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
This will be a key area to watch as the Patriots STs units have been outstanding. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had a Pro-Bowl season and Ryan Allen posted a 46.4 punting average. The coverage units are solid and the kick return game with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman has been explosive. The Patriots have blocked four kicks this season and returned two of them for touchdowns.
The Colts are also outstanding in both phases of the kicking game, Adam Vinatieri continues to defy age and knows how to kick in Foxboro as well as anyone. Pat McAfee had an outstanding 2014 averaging 46.7 yards per punt. The coverage unit has been solid and with the return game with Griff Whalen and Josh Cribbs, the Colts can be dangerous.
In a closely matched game, STs may indeed decide the difference, but the Patriots get the slight advantage here being at home and having one of the best STs units in the NFL.
Prediction:
Another classic New England – Indianapolis matchup with the Old Guard of Belichick and Brady trying to reach their sixth Super Bowl appearance together facing the young gun Luck and the upstart Colts.
Indianapolis is trying to re-capture the magic of 2006 when their defense was mediocre during the regular season but ignited during the playoffs and led to a Super Bowl win coupled with a fantastic passing offense with Peyton Manning.
This Patriots team is a better unit overall and being at home should win this one. They’re mentally tough and have the coaching experience in the big games that should bode them well. But this is a Indy team that is learning how to win and they believe themselves to be a team of destiny.
In the end, this one will be much closer but watch the turnover battle here. The Colts had 31 turnovers in the NFL, third most. No one is better than the Pats in forcing an opponent to make a mistake which costs them at crunch time. Plus the Patriots offense is diverse enough to really give the Colts fits in picking who to stop. Patriots pack up for Arizona as they advance to the big game. Patriots 31-20
Patriots Player to Watch- Rob Gronkowski
Another tailor-made game for Gronkowski, a national stage in a big game at home in front of a rabid fan base anxious to see the big man do his thing.
And he will. The Colts and Gronkowski are a big matchup advantage for New England in the Patriots passing game and Brady will be looking to get him involved early and often. He makes the New England offense go and they’ll be attacking the Colts middle of the field with him until they prove they can stop them.
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