Patriots - Jets, Who Has the Razor's Edge? Key Matchups
The New England Patriots travel for their final regular season road game of 2014 as take on the New York Jets at Met Life Stadium in the New Jersey Meadowlands. The game will be televised by CBS who will have the announcing crew of Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots on the call. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m.
The Patriots (11-3) shook off a slow start to blow out the Miami Dolphins 41-13, as Tom Brady ignited the Patriots with a big 17 yard run on a third and 11 during the team's first drive in the second half. The defense shut out Miami in the second half as well, during the past four weeks, the Patriots have allowed only six second half points.
The Jets (3-11) beat the Tennessee Titans 16-11 which actually hurt their draft position for the 2015 NFL Draft where many believe the Jets will be looking for a new franchise QB. The game was marked by an ugly brawl when QB Geno Smith was punched after engaging in some trash talk during an official timeout.
Series History:
The Patriots and Jets will meet for the 112th time in their heated rivalry with the Jets that stretches back to 1960. The Patriots hold a 57-53-1 edge overall including the playoffs. The Jets however hold sway at home holding a 28-26 edge including a 30-27 OT win last season. In the October meeting at Foxboro, the Patriots held on with a 27-25 win as Chris Jones blocked a last minute FG attempt.
Here is a look at some of the PatsFans.com key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Jets Front Seven- Razor’s Edge-Jets
One area that the Patriots have struggled in, has been in consistently running the football. There have been times when they’ve really gotten it going with LaGarrette Blount ,Jonas Gray backed up by Shane Vereen and others when the offensive line hasn’t gotten any push at the line of scrimmage.
The Jets rush defense has been a bright spot for the team allowing only 87.4 yards per game good for 5th in the NFL and 3.5 yards per rush. It starts with a stout front seven, Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson anchor the defensive line and the LBs inside David Harris and Demario Davis are always a tough matchup for the Patriots running game which only managed 63 yards in the first meeting.
It will be interesting to see if the duo of Blount who wasn’t on the roster in the earlier meeting and Gray will be able to keep the balance the Patriots need for the offense and produce a better running game this time around.
Patriots WRs vs Jets Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Jets secondary has struggled for nearly all of 2014, especially on third down despite having a pass rush that can get after the quarterback. Injuries and lackluster play at the CB position has been an issue as well as covering tight ends. In Ryan’s scheme, putting the corners out on an island while overload blitzes pressure the QB has been difficult when the corners struggle to cover.
QB Tom Brady hasn’t had quite the numbers he was enjoying the past few games but providing his protection holds up here, should find plenty of room to target downfield. This should be a game where they attack the seams of the defense with Rob Gronkowski. Look for Brady to target Brandon LaFell more in this game working the intermediate areas of the secondary. Julian Edelman may not play, suffering from a concussion, so Danny Amendola who had a big touchdown in the first matchup will get more snaps this week.
Expect to see Shane Vereen who led all receivers in the October meeting to once again be a factor out of the backfield in the passing game. Brady’s numbers in the Meadowlands against Rex Ryan’s defenses haven’t been great (57.8 percent completion rate) but the Patriots have too many weapons for the Jets to defend. It will all come down to protection and production.
Jets RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Jets
Despite being behind in nearly every game this season, Rex Ryan loves to ground and pound the football. The Jets are averaging nearly 150 yards per game, (2nd in the NFL) and with an impressive 4.7 yards per carry.
Featuring mainly a two-headed tandem of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson the Jets ran for over 200 yards in the first meeting with those two gaining 168 yards between them. The Jets ran right up the middle and then were able to bounce plays to the outside when the containment failed.
Since that game, the run defense of the Patriots has improved; the team has signed Allen Branch and got back Sealver Siliga providing a much bigger, stouter front for the defense. Linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins likewise have been an active, penetrating duo who’ve been able to disrupt plays in the backfield
The key here will be setting the edge, DEs Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich struggled at times with their containment especially with QB Geno Smith and they’ll have to play much better this time around.
Jets WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
After facing some of the NFL’s best passing games during the recent stretch of tough games, this is a matchup the New England secondary should win easily. Not that the Jets don’t have some talented receivers, Eric Decker, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Kerley in the slot have the ability to be productive and with tight ends Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro, they have plenty of targets to throw to, but the problem has been the delivery.
Simply put the play of Geno Smith and Mike Vick has been abysmal. Smith has had the lowest QB rating in the NFL the past two years and the Jets passing game is ranked dead last in the NFL. With changes coming in Jersey after this season, Smith will be playing for his future on Sunday. He has only nine TD passes against 12 interceptions this season.
The Patriots secondary led by Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner has been playing extremely well and expect to see this duo matched up with Harvin and Decker with Kyle Arrington in the slot (if he’s recovered from his injury) to match up with Kerley. Obviously the key here is to force the game into Smith’s hands and make him beat you with throws down the field.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Patriots ST units have been consistently making big plays all season. Last week against Miami they blocked their fourth FG of the season and Kyle Arrington returned it for a touchdown. The coverage units have been solid and the tandem of Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen continue outstanding seasons.
The Jets are getting solid seasons from the kicking game of P Ryan Quigley and K Nick Folk who is always nearly automatic. Folk was dealing with an injury but is now back to full health. Harvin has given a boost to the team in the return game but their coverage units haven’t been great lately. Given the Pats production across the board, they get the nod here.
Prediction:
Given how the Jets typically give the Patriots fits in these tough divisional games, expect this one to be much of the same. This one will be the swan song for Ryan at home and against Belichick and the Patriots, look for the Jets to empty out the playbook and throw everything at New England…this is their Super Bowl and they’d like nothing better than to knock off their hated rivals and be the cause of the Patriots to lose the #1 seed in the NFL playoffs.
The keys from a NE perspective are to start fast, stop the run and win the turnover battle. They don’t want the Jets hanging around late in the game with a chance to win. This is a team with double-digit losses, get up quickly and put the hammer down. They are not built to play from behind.
The Jets are a running team, if you slow the run and force them into third and long situations, the ball and the onus will be placed on Smith to win the game. And that is a winning proposition for NE.
Turnover differentials are a polar opposite, the Patriots are +11 and the Jets are -11. They’ve only forced five interceptions on defense and they have turned it over a lot on offense. Revis and Co. will be looking to ball-hawk the Jets in this one.
It will be close for awhile, but the Patriots will pull away down the stretch. Ryan’s last home game with the Jets won’t end pretty. New England 34-13
Patriots Player to Watch- Darrelle Revis
Revis made it clear, his first choice was to return to the Jets when he was released by Tampa Bay this spring. And he’d like nothing better than to return to his former home and put on a show for the Jets faithful.
If Smith was smart, he’d be very careful about treading on Revis Island on Sunday. Revis loves these type of situations and will be at his ball-hawking best this week.
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