Patriots - Bills, Who Has The Razor's Edge?, Key Matchups
 The Patriots will be looking for Rob Gronkowski to provide big things in their matchup with the Bills on Sunday. (USA TODAY Images) |
The New England Patriots travel to Orchard Park, NY to take on the Buffalo Bills in a very important divisional game in the AFC East. The game is slated to kick off at 1 p.m. on Sunday and has been cross-flexed to Fox Sports. The announcing crew of Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa will be on the call.
The Patriots (3-2) rebounded nicely from the debacle in KC to blow out a good Cincinnati Bengals team 43-17 on Sunday night in a short week of preparation. The ground game chewed up 220 yards of real estate with Stevan Ridley, 113 yards on 27 carries and Shane Vereen, 90 yards on 9 carries doing the most work.
Tom Brady got much better protection in the pocket and the passing game looked better than it has all season as the Pats rolled up over 500 yards of offense. Using a 2-TE set, Brady found plenty of room to throw the ball in the middle of the field using Rob Gronkowski, 6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown and Tim Wright, 5 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Darrelle Revis shadowed A.J. Green and played like the Revis we expected to see when he was signed.
The Bills (3-2) had a huge come-from-behind win on the road in Detroit, winning on a 58 yard field goal from Dan Carpenter in the closing seconds 17-14. The Bills sacked Matthew Stafford six times and didn’t allow an offensive touchdown after the first quarter.
Kyle Orton taking over for E.J. Manuel at QB last week had a big game completing 30 of 43 passes for 308 yards and a touchdown. He’s already developing a nice chemistry with rookie WR Sammy Watkins who made a big 20 yard catch to set the Bills up for the winning kick at the end of the game.
The sale of the Bills was finalized this week to the Pegula family who also owns the Buffalo Sabers and is great news for the fans in Buffalo as the team will now be locked into staying in Buffalo as rumors had the team possibly on the move.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2014 to give a quick break down on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:
The Patriots and Bills will play for the 112th time in their long history on Sunday. The Patriots hold the overall edge 66-44-1 since play began in 1960 between the teams.
The Pats hold the edge in games played in Buffalo as well hold a 31-22-1 advantage. Since the Bill Belichick era began in 2000, the Patriots have dominated the series 25-3 and have won the last five meetings including a close 23-21 win last season in Buffalo.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Bills Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Bills
The Patriots running game got a tremendous boost from Ridley and Vereen last week, giving NE the balance that opens up the field for play action passing. Big props go to the offensive line who played much better and to FB James Develin who did a great job of opening things up and getting the runners to the second level.
The Bills have transformed themselves from the 28th rush defense unit in 2013 to #2 thus far this season allowing only 71 yards per game. No team has rushed for more than 86 yards on the Buffalo defense. It begins in the middle of the front four with Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams who have played excellently. The addition this season of former Patriot Brandon Spikes at linebacker as well as rookie Preston Brown have given them a sorely needed down-hill run thumping tandem at the second level.
Patriots WRs vs Bills Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
The key for the Patriots here is, as always the protection afforded to Tom Brady. And the Bills can get after the QB, leading the league with 17 sacks thus far. The front four, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Dareus and Jerry Hughes do an excellent job of rushing the passer without having to resort to the blitz.
The Patriots will attempt to throw in the middle of the field using Gronkowski and Wright taking advantage of Buffalo’s linebackers on early downs when the Bills are in their base 4-3 look. Spikes and Brown while great run-stuffers are liabilities in coverage.
Bills RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Bills
Buffalo has a great tandem in the ageless Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller who give them a potent 1-2 punch who can be equally effective in both the running and passing games. Jackson still effective at age 33 had over 100 yards combined running and receiving last week and loves to play against New England, putting in some great performances thru the years.
The Patriots have been inconsistent against the run this season, being stout in their three wins and a sieve in their two losses (see a trend here?) where their tackling and schemes were gashed. Slowing down Jackson, limiting the big plays and sure tackling are the big keys this week.
Bills WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
This will be a great matchup to watch as Buffalo has some very good weapons in the passing game. Rookie Sammy Watkins is already turning heads and may be matched up with Darrelle Revis throughout Sunday afternoon. But the Bills also have Robert Woods, Mike Williams and Marquise Goodwin at wide receiver. Scott Chandler is a productive tight end and Spiller and Jackson out of the backfield give them a plethora of weapons to use.
The one potential weak spot will be QB Kyle Orton who only has played the one game this season and still isn’t completely on-board with the offense yet. The Bills have also had issues with QB pressure this season and it will be interesting to see if the Patriots can mount any on Orton to force him into mistakes.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Push
Both teams are outstanding in the kicking game, Dan Carpenter hit a game winning 58 yard field goal at crunch time last week and punter Colton Schmidt has had only 2 of his 31 punts hit the end zone for a touchback.
The Patriots counter with the steady, reliable Stephen Gostkowski who kicked five field goals last week and punter Ryan Allen who is averaging over 46 yards per punt and only has one touchback. The Bills have the edge in returns with Spiller and McKelvin but the Patriots have the edge in coverage with Pro-Bowler Matthew Slater having a fantastic season again.
Prediction:
This should be a fantastic game to watch as it could be a close one that should go right down to the wire. This one will be won or lost in the trenches as the offensive and defensive lines will dictate the pace as well as the momentum.
The key from a Patriots perspective is to slow down the run and force the game into Orton’s hands and try to force a mistake from the veteran QB who is still easing into the offense.
The Patriots may again use a 2-TE, 2-RB approach similar to what was successful against Cincinnati. When the Bills remain in base 4-3 personnel, Brady will attempt to pass to tight ends Gronkowski and Wright. If the Bills choose to go into nickel, the Patriots may use the FB Develin to try to push the running game to the second level and run the ball.
Both teams are excellent in the turnover game (+6 tied for the league lead) and winning the turnover battle will be key here. The Bills are putting together a good team and the home crowd will be raucous, in a playoff type atmosphere. But the Patriots with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been in these games many times and know how to win this type of game. In the end experience wins out and on the road,New England escapes with a 24-20 victory.
Patriots Player to Watch- Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski is beginning to look like the Gronk of old and put in a huge game against the Bengals on Sunday night with over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. He’s a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, nearly impossible to cover with a linebacker and too big and physical for a safety when he is on top of his game.
Gronkowski always looks forward to playing in Buffalo as it is his hometown and his numbers play that out, with Gronk logging in nine touchdowns in six games against the Bills. Gronkowski averages 5 receptions for just under 75 yards and 1.5 TDs (according to Pro Football Reference) in his games against Buffalo.
If Brady gets Gronkowski involved early in this one, it will go a long way towards building a foundation for the Patriots to win on the road.
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