Patriots - Bills, Who Has The Razor's Edge?
The New England Patriots return home for their final home regular season game of the season as they take on the Buffalo Bills in Foxboro. The Patriots and Bills started the season, 16 weeks ago in Buffalo and it seems in the blink of an eye that the season is over so quickly.
 Danny Amendola had an outstanding game playing hurt in the first meeting. (USA TODAY Images) |
The Patriots (11-4) clinched the AFC East division title with a 41-7 rout of the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots have won their division for the fifth year in a row and 11th in the past 13 seasons. The only two times they’ve lost the division in that time frame has been on tie-breakers.
The Bills (6-9) blanked the Miami Dolphins last weekend in Buffalo 19-0 putting a dent into the Fins playoff hopes. The defense was outstanding allowing only 103 total yards and sacking Miami QBs seven times. The Bills are out of the playoffs but are building towards 2014 and new coach Doug Marrone seems to have them on the right track.
We here at PatsFans.com are going to try something a little bit different this season. Our new weekly column, the “Razor’s Edge” gives a quick break down on some of the key matchups of the game and what to look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:
The Patriots and met a total of 107 times including the playoffs, since the beginning of the AFL with the Patriots holding a 65-41-1 edge overall. At home, the Patriots hold a commanding 33-20 lead. New England has won the last four meetings including a come from behind last minute win 23-21 in Buffalo on the opening weekend of the season. .
Patriots Offense-
The Patriots offense has changed a few times over the course of the season. The first time these teams met with so many new faces, the unit struggled to move the ball as it dealt with the absence of Rob Gronkowski.
Now the unit has to re-discover itself again after Gronkowski’s return and subsequent knee injury against the Browns. The passing game is leaning heavily upon Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen out of the backfield. The injury bug has hit on all three rookie WRs in Aaron Dobson (foot), Kenbrell Thompkins (hip), and Josh Boyce (ankle) the past few weeks. The unit would love to have all three back in the playoffs.
One area the team leaned on was the running game against Baltimore. The Ravens had one of the top defenses in the red zone and the Patriots ran the ball effectively and as a result the Patriots went 3-3 inside the 20 after going only 1 for 4 against Miami the week before.
Patriots RBs vs Bills Front Seven- NE 119.9YPG, 4.2 YPC Edge Patriots
New England’s trio of primary running backs, LaGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen give them plenty of options in the running game. Each has a different element that they can bring to the table.
And the Patriots final offensive drive on Sunday highlighted how effective this unit can be. Having to run the ball when Baltimore knew they were going to run it to kill the clock was a big test. And they kept it on the ground with an impressive drive to score a touchdown to put the game away.
 Tom Brady will look to continue a hot second half of the 2013 season. (USA TODAY Images) |
Buffalo has had issues stopping the run this season which begs the question why with players such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Alan Branch and Kiko Alonso in the front seven. But Mike Pettine is an aggressive defensive coordinator who loves to get after the quarterback. And the Bills play a lot of dime coverage.
Expect the Patriots to attack that dime coverage every time the Bills are in it by spreading them out and running the ball. With the three RBs in the backfield, they should be very effective doing so.
Patriots WRs vs Bills Secondary- NE 268 YPG Edge Bills
The Patriots injury bug hasn’t just hit the defense, the offense lost starting LT Sebastian Vollmer for the season a while ago and last week was without starting LT Nate Solder (concussion), Rob Gronkowski (IR knee), Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce. In addition, they lost Shane Vereen in the first half with a groin pull.
As a result, QB Tom Brady leaned heavily on WRs Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and the Patriots offense continues to chug along. One nice addition was that WR Aaron Dobson returned from his own foot injury last week. He’s a needed bigger target for Brady to utilize, especially in the red-zone.
The Bills #5 pass defense set a franchise record with sacks with 56 last week and have four pass rushers with more than seven sacks, (Mario Williams 13, Kyle Williams 10.5, Hughes 10 and Dareus 7.5), and under Pettine, they can and do get after the QB very well and allow only 210 yards per game.It is the first time the first time the Bills have had three players with double digit sacks since the Bruce Smith era in 1995.
The Patriots plan will be to have Brady get rid of the ball quickly to counteract the Bills pass rush. If they can run the ball effectively, it will open up play-action passing on early downs. But with Solder hurting and the WRs banged up, it’s going to be hard for the Patriots to lean on the passing game….balance will be the key.
Patriots Defense-
The Patriots defense has been beat up this season with the season ending injuries to Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo and they’ve had to deal with several more players playing hurt in the secondary, Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington and Steve Gregory all have been dinged up. Now Devin McCourty may miss Sunday’s game with a concussion.
Add in LB Brandon Spikes who has been playing hurt with knee issues and now even further with Rob Ninkovich dealing with an ankle injury, the list just keeps growing. But despite all this, the defense played perhaps one of its best overall games on Sunday, holding the Baltimore Ravens to just seven points and not even letting them cross mid-field until the third quarter.
This unit really needs a bye week from a health standpoint so don’t expect to see anyone who is capable of playing sitting on Sunday.
Bills RBs vs NE Front Seven- Buf 142. YPG, 4.2 YPA Edge Bills
Buffalo has an outstanding running game consisting of mainly Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller who run behind a tough, physical offensive line. Jackson has over 1100 yards combined rushing and receiving and leads the Bills with 836 yards and a 4.3 yard average on the ground.
Spiller is right behind him with 822 yard and a 4.5 yard per carry average. Like their Patriots counterparts, both bring different elements to the table and both have had big games against New England in the past.
The Patriots have tinkered with the defensive alignment since the injuries to Kelly and Wilfork and have settled in with Sealver Siliga playing nose tackle opposite Chris Jones in a 4-3 over scheme while in base defense. Even still they need big performances from the linebackers, Spikes and Dont’a Hightower in the running game to be successful.
Jackson had a good game the first time around averaging over 5 yards per carry and was the Bills leading receiver as well but the coaches with the lead in the fourth quarter abandoned the run too soon, look for them to stick with it this week, especially if Manuel can’t go.
Bills WRs vs NE Secondary- Buf 191.9 YPG Edge Patriots
The Bills would love Manuel to start in their finale on Sunday, as he’s their future but he’s been out three times this season and is questionable at this point. The main issue with the Bills passing game is consistency and not having your starter in and a rookie starter at that is a big reason why.
 New England will look to have another big defensive performance this week against Buffalo. (USA TODAY Images) |
Thad Lewis will be waiting in the wings again if Manuel isn’t ready to go and will have Robert Woods, T.J. Graham, and TE Scott Chandler along with Jackson and Spiller out of the backfield to throw to. Stevie Johnson suffered a death in his family and missed last week’s game and may not make the trip to New England. Marquise Goodwin left Sunday with a knee injury but should return to action this week.
The Patriots secondary got a big boost from the play of Logan Ryan Sunday, filling in for Alfonzo Dennard and he intercepted two Joe Flacco passes. The Patriots in the first meeting looked to keep Manuel contained in the pocket rather than pin their ears back. If he can’t play and Lewis is in there, look for them to come after Lewis more.
Buffalo will be leaning on the running game to open up play-action passing. Chandler and Jackson are always big focuses in the passing game but they’ll take their shots with Johnson (if he’s available) and Woods down the field.
Special Teams- Edge Patriots
Stephen Gostkowski gets the edge over Dan Carpenter in the kicking game although both are having outstanding solid seasons. But at home this season, Gostkowski has missed only one kick.
Rookie punter Ryan Allen also gets the edge over veteran Brian Moorman, he’s been very solid and has a better average 45.8 ypp to Moorman’s 41.1. The Bills coverage units haven’t been their normal outstanding selves this season. New England’s coverage units have been solid all season.
Buffalo’s return game has been down this season also, the dangerous Leodis McKelvin is averaging only 8.6 yards per punt return. Marquis Goodwin is averaging 21.9 yards per return in the kicking game.
Julian Edelman remains a threat to take one long every time he gets his hands on a punt return and with Josh Boyce nursing a hurt ankle, Matthew Slater may be asked to return kicks this week.
Patriots Player to Watch- Julian Edelman
Edelman is again the Patriots player to watch this week, while he may again be a big focal point for Tom Brady and the offense this week, watch him even more in a special teams role, he’s long overdue for a big return in the punting game and what better week than in the season finale to bust one.
But this week, he has a couple of personal milestones that are entirely within his grasp this season that are huge for him. Edelman needs only 4 catches and 9 yards receiving to go over 100 catches and 1000 yards for the 2013 season.
Entering this season with Wes Welker gone, Rob Gronkowski hurt and Aaron Hernandez in jail awaiting murder charges, Edelman has really stepped up to the plate and has become Tom Brady’s go-to guy in the passing game.
No one foresaw Edelman having that kind of season this summer although the opportunity was there for the taking, but he’s stayed healthy and is making the most of his chances.
Prediction: Patriots 27-20
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