03-05-2012, 12:20 PM
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#14
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PatsFans.com Supporter
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 19,949
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Re: Bills extend WR Stevie Johnson; Texans extend RB Arian Foster
Quote:
Originally Posted by cstjohn17
It has been suggested ad nauseum that the Patriots sign Welker and another top receiver ( fill in the blank, Jackson, Colston, Wallace to name a few).
Using Steve Johnson's as the baseline:
Stevie Johnson - Buffalo Bills - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com
Welker - $8-10 M cap hit
Receiver X - $8-10 M cap hit
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$16-20 M cap hit for two receivers
Total cap - approximately $122 M
16-20 / 122 = about 1/6
Too rich for me
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OK, your saying $8-10M apiece. Let's call it $9M. Thing about the cap is you can manipulate the hits to fit the existing cap without backloading much or screwing yourself down the line because the cap will go up...eventually. First year cap hits on $9M deals could easily be in the $6-7M range. Could be less but we don't tend to like to do that. So call it 2 WR's @ $13M against the cap in 2012-2013. Now Welker and Moss hit the cap at $10M+ back in 2008 under a $117M cap (before adjustment) in the early years of their $4.5M and $9M per deals ($13.5M combined value). So you see it can be done. 10% of cap for your top 2 WR isn't overkill.
That said, I don't think it's the best allocation of resources since we don't need another top tier WR added to the roster at this time. We need a competent #2 or #3 outside the numbers WR who will be the #4 or #5 option in this offense because of the TE's and Welker, but we're OK to pay for a slightly better player to help insure against what happened in the Super Bowl. Chad wasn't that player at any point last season, and Branch wasn't that player down the stretch. That was the problem last season. Although we wasted $4M AAV per on Chad. What we probably need is a $4-5M per player who is actually worth that...maybe a Lloyd or a Wayne if push comes to shove. We could have had JAB back for $2.5M...and he caught 68 passes for a almost a thousand yards for a team that doesn't even have a QB...but that's spilt milk (although typing those number really infuriates me...).
The cap will be flat this year and next, but it will rise dramatically in 2014 ($135M+ cap) and probably substantially ($145M by 2015) and by 5% thereafter as the revenue from the new TV deals kicks in.
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