Ice_Ice_Brady

Last year two quarterbacks stepped up big in their rookie seasons. Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan each put together exceptional first-years and led their teams to the playoffs. Immediately before this year's draft, virtually every draft analyst believed there were several "NFL ready" quarterbacks ready to follow the lead of Ryan and Flacco, ready to start from day one. The other name that was brought up continuously was Peyton Manning, coming off his 3rd MVP award, the poster boy for putting a quarterback in a "baptism by fire" in which first year struggles result in vast improvements. No one really argued with this line of thinking. Players like Ben Roethlisberger, Manning, and last years wonders, are among the best quarterbacks in the league.

And teams like the Lions and Jets bit, and bit hard. The Lions announced Stafford as the starter early in training camp, while the Jets "awarded" Sanchez with first-string duties after a "battle" that was about as unbiased as the USSR-USA 1972 Olympic basketball final. Needless to say, Sanchez was the day one starter and looked poised and effective. Already comparisons to Joe Namath and Tom Brady were being made. Sanchez became the first rookie quarterback to begin 3-0 (for rookies that started in all three of his team's games.) Then Sanchez faced the New Orleans Saints defense and his confidence turned. Progressively spiraling downwards, Sanchez now finds himself among the worst statistical quarterbacks in the league, as teams have figured him out, he has lost all confidence, and he looks like he does not belong in the league. Jets fans are concerned, feeling that this is their typical luck. Still, they seem to think that first-year struggles are completely normal for future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

Jets fans couldn't be more wrong, and they should be pointing their finger at management, who bought into the "first-year rookie starter" after last year's two anomalies. The truth is that players like Manning, Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Ryan are merely the few survivors of a rookie starter death march that destroys players with great potential. Since 1999, 16 quarterbacks have taken the majority of their team's snaps. Roethlisberger, Ryan, and Flacco are the only three to post quarterback ratings over 80. They are also the only three who aren't considered to be monumental busts. Among the trash heap of former franchise quarterbacks who were ruined because they were brought in to soon, we have such gems as Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, and David Carr.

The point that Jets fans fail to grasp is that ALL of these quarterbacks showed great potential at one time. All of them had the physical tools to succeed at the NFL; all of them expected to jump up to an elite level by their third year; and all of them basically stayed at their rookie production. Peyton Manning was not a model to base the way you develop a QB; he was an exception to the rule that quarterbacks that struggle as rookies will fail quickly in their careers.


QBs who played the majority of their teams snaps as rookies (Year-Games-Passer Rating)

Ben Roethlisberger '04 (14)- 98.1
Matt Ryan '08 (16)- 87.7
Joe Flacco '08 (16)- 80.3
Matt Leinart '06 (14)- 74.0
Tim Couch '99 (15)- 73.2
Byron Leftwich '03 (15)- 73.0
Trent Edwards '07 (10)- 70.4
Vince Young '06 (15)- 66.7
Cade McNown '99 (15)- 66.7
Quincy Carter '01 (8)- 63.0
David Carr '02 (16)- 62.8
Kyle Boller '03 (11)- 62.4
Chris Weinke '01 (15)- 62.0
Mark Sanchez '09 (10)- 61.1
Joey Harrington '02 (14)- 59.9
Kyle Orton '05 (15)- 59.7

Meanwhile, while there is 1 notable quarterback in the last 10 years who succeeded in the league after starting as rookie (Roethlisberger, since Flacco and Ryan have only played for two years; Orton cannot be considered a success to this point), the following is a list of quarterbacks who waited at least one year before seeing significant playing time, as opposed to QBs who started the majority of snaps:

Since 1999, quarterbacks who did not play the majority of their team's snaps their rookie season:

-Donovan McNabb
-Daunte Culpepper
-Chad Pennington
-Tom Brady
-Michael Vick
-Drew Brees
-Carson Palmer
-Eli Manning
-Philip Rivers
-Aaron Rodgers
-Jay Cutler


Jets fans should not be so optimistic that Sanchez will be "fine." Much more than likely, the Jets organization has ruined him beyond the point of return. You may protest, throw up your arms, or say that "my instinct" tells me Sanchez will succeed because he "looks" good out there. Bottom line is, every rookie quarterback is their team's starter because of that sexy potential. Everyone thought it would be a matter of time before guys like David Carr, Cade McNown, and Chris Weinke busted out to the next level.

The Jets really botched this one. The success rate for a quarterback who sits out his first year is much higher than a rookie thrown into the starting lineup. Rather than being in the company of greats like Brady, Brees, and McNabb, history strongly suggests that Sanchez will be lumped instead with players like Harrington and Boller.

PatsWickedPissah

Hopefully QB Kevin O'Connell is still on the JETS roster

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Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck." RAH

Synovia

Theres some HUGE selection bias here. A lot of the guys who didn't play significantly their rookie years didn't play because the team was actually good. Its a lot easier to work a QB into the system when your team went 10-6 the year before, and you've got a playoff quality offense, QB aside.

Flacco and Ryan both walked into situations where they had good offensive lines, good RBs, and good WRs. (as did Rivers, Eli, Cutler, etc).


Stafford and Sanchez have both walked into situations where nothing around them works.


Plus, Eli Manning belongs on the first list, not the 2nd. I'm sure there are others.

mayoclinic

The big thing that's noticeable with Sanchez is his decision making. He does a nice job of eluding the pass rush inside his own 5 yard line, then instead of throwing the ball away he makes a horrible decision throwing the ball off of his back foot deep in his own territory. Terrible decision. And that was far from an isolated instance.

At this point Sanchez is shell-shocked. When you've throw more INTs than Jake Delhomme, that's bad - Sanchez is even giving Jay Cutler a run for his money as an INT maker. He needs to sit on the sideline, eat a few hot dogs, and learn how to be an NFL QB.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Synovia

I see Cutler as a similar situation to Sanchez. Cutler is pretty much the only piece of talent in the bears offense right now. The line is terrible, and Hester is the only legitimate WR they have. Sanchez has a better line, and better WRs, but hes got nowhere near the tools at this point.


He's pushing things because they need to push things to have any chance to win.

Ice_Ice_Brady

In 2004, Kurt Warner had nearly 100 more passing attempts than Eli Manning. Don't say "I'm sure there are others" after your first statement was wrong. Why don't you do some research instead of attacking correct facts.

Please name for me one good quarterback since 1999 that started the majority of his rookie year snaps and is not named Ben Roethlisberger. I bet you can only come up with two guys that have played two years (Flacco, Ryan) and Kyle Orton (wow!). I just gave you the 16 names.

It's ridiculous to say this is based on the "system". The correlation between a year of experience vs. being thrown in as a rookie as about as high a correlation as you can get. Go through every draft and you'll see that there are 3-4 elite quarterbacks, based on expectations. On almost EVERY one, his success or failure depends on his first-year strategy.

mayoclinic

I'm not so sure about that.

The Bears have a horrible Oline, horrible receivers, and Forte has disappointed after a stellar rookie year. Cutler is clearly pushing, and making a lot of bad decision. He needs to learn to play within his limits.

The Jets have much more options than the Bears. They have a very good offensive line, do a reasonable job of protecting Sanchez, have the leading rushing attack in the NFL right now, and have some reasonable receiving options for Sanchez between Edwards (despite the drops), Keller and Cotchery. Sanchez is just trying to be Brett Favre and making poor decisions. As someone said, right now Sanchez is Favre without the upside.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

KontradictioN

The bottom line is that Pete Carroll was right and Sanchez is not ready to lead an NFL team at this point. His decision making is absolutely terrible. When given time, however, he is capable of making some nice throws. Unfortunately, not every team is going to give him enough time to make a sandwich in the pocket. As of right now, it could really go either way. He could go the route of Joey Harrington or he could go the route of a Peyton Manning, who also had a terrible first couple of seasons before he "got it". (Note: I am not saying that Sanchez will ever be as good as Manning)

Hopefully he goes the route of the Unibrow.

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CREDIT - Sicilian

Synovia

Eli Manning started 9 games that year, and got the majority of the snaps in the 10th. He was the starter for the majority of that season.


The fact that they got more conservative calling plays once he started doesn't change that.

Synovia

Even you should know (well, maybe not) that Correlation does not equal Causation.

The couple examples I can think of with teams already having good offensive parts in place, are Roethlisburger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Flacco, Ryan, etc.


There are also PLENTY of examples of guys who didn't start their rookie years, and either sucked when they did, or never got to start.


Honestly, I agree that a rookie QB shouldn't start, but the data doesn't prove anything.