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Old 12-02-2012, 08:39 AM   #1
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Default The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

When Connor Barwin emerged in 2008/2009 he seemed like a relatively rarity. An uber-athletic kid with a basketball as well as a football background who had been switched positions in college and suddenly exploded on defense, leading the Big East in sacks.

It seems like this kind of story is becoming more and more commonplace. Guys with cross-sports backgrounds and insane athleticism who move to football and develop quite rapidly. Guys who change positions in college (sometimes more than once), sometimes switching from offense to defense, finding the position that best suits both their frame and their personality. There are clearly guys who seem better mentality suited to playing on one side of the ball than the other, and who thrive once they change positions.

Consider some recent examples:

- Jason Pierre-Paul (2010): a 4 year letterman in basketball who only took up football after a leg injury. Thrived because of his exceptional length and athleticism, but was considered technically raw when drafted. Exploded as a pro, and is now the standard for pass rushing DEs.
- Jimmy Graham (2010): basketball player with great size, athleticism and footwork who took up football. Very raw initially. Mike Mayock predicted it would take at least 2 years for him to start to make an impact. It obviously didn't.
- Nate Solder (2011): former TE, outgrew the position and was moved to offensive tackle. Great footwork and agility for the position, insane athleticism. Is emerging as a top OT in his second year.
- JJ Watt (2011): former TE, terrific athleticism. Switched to defense, was quite raw at first. Now is all world.
- Richard Sherman (2011): former high school track and field star (hurdles, triple jump) as well as football. WR in college, was converted to CB as a junior, so was technically raw when he came out. Exploded as a pro. His athleticism, aggressiveness and background as a WR have all combined to make him one of the best coverage CBs in the NFL today, in only his second year.

Consider some of the current college crop:

- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon:high school basketball player and WR, switched to TE and then to defense, where he has emerged as an explosive pass rusher who is fluid enough in space to play CB at times. Possible 1st round pick in 2013.
- Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU: Ghanese track athlete who had never played football until 3 years ago. Reportedly ran a 10.9 100 meter dash and 21.9 200 meter at 260 lbs. Has exploded this year, and is getting consideration as a possible 1st round pick. Plays OLB, DE and DT and 270+ lbs.
- Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota: highly recruited TE and basketball player out of high school, was switched to DE and then DT. Has emerged as a starter this year and has dominanted inside with 6.5 TFL and 5 sacks, now regularly requires double teams. Getting serious pro interest, considering declaring.
- Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado: basketball player and 4 star recruit as a DE. Stagnated a bit, and got moved to as a junior TE, where he is thriving. Supposedly has 4.55 speed at 6'6" 260#. Was also a multiple track letterman in highschool where he was a sprinter despite playing DE, and reportedly ran a 11.1 100 meter dash and 23.7 200 meter.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati: former quarterback before being converted to TE. Also a basketball and track standout in high school, had trouble picking football over basketball. Now considered a fast rising draft prospect.
- Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St.: recruited to Ohio St. as a TE, also played basketball and participated in track in high school. How 6'8" and 305-310#, in his first year of playing RT for the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and Michigant St. both recruited Fragel, but wanted to convert him immediately to OT, and he was unwilling, otherwise he might be a much higher rated prospect by this time.
- Kyle Long, OT, Oregon: former baseball pitcher who only converted to football last year. Still technically raw, combines massive size and athleticism.

There are lots of others. I'm including kids who were either cross-sports late switches to football and/or positional switches. All were relatively late comes to their eventual positions, and all had to deal with either the technical challenges of a new sport/position and/or the challenges of a changing physical frame. Obviously, not all of these stories are the same, and not all kids develop at the same rate, or necessarily succeed. But it seems like there are scads of uber-athletic kids with cross sports backgrounds who either come to football late or who undergo positional switches and are late to pick up a position. All of these kids tend to be technically a bit behind their more experienced peers, but have superior athleticism. Those with the drive to succeed frequently seem to do so. Many of these kids are available fairly late in the draft process because their technical ability or control over their bodies hasn't yet matured.

I'm guessing that we'll see more and more of colleges finding raw but ultra-athletic kids who don't have much football experience and/or have a cross-training experience, and will tinker more and more with moving players to different positions. TE seems to be a bit of a nexus in terms of size/athleticism. We've seen a lot of kids with TE backgrounds move to DE or to OT, and some kids with DE backgrounds move to TE. It seems like some of these kids may be good day 3 pickups for those patient enough to work on their fundamentals. JJ Watt, Jimmy Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul and Richard Sherman are good examples of how quickly these kind of athletes and can develop if they have enough drive to succeed. It might not be a bad draft strategy to target some of these kids, particularly those that are available day 2 or 3.
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:49 AM   #2
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

I remember a reporter asking parcells where have all the great pass rushing D Linemen gone, and he said they play basket ball. They play basket ball because they're careers are longer, and because of that they make more money
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:24 AM   #3
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
When Connor Barwin emerged in 2008/2009 he seemed like a relatively rarity. An uber-athletic kid with a basketball as well as a football background who had been switched positions in college and suddenly exploded on defense, leading the Big East in sacks.

It seems like this kind of story is becoming more and more commonplace. Guys with cross-sports backgrounds and insane athleticism who move to football and develop quite rapidly. Guys who change positions in college (sometimes more than once), sometimes switching from offense to defense, finding the position that best suits both their frame and their personality. There are clearly guys who seem better mentality suited to playing on one side of the ball than the other, and who thrive once they change positions.

Consider some recent examples:

- Jason Pierre-Paul (2010): a 4 year letterman in basketball who only took up football after a leg injury. Thrived because of his exceptional length and athleticism, but was considered technically raw when drafted. Exploded as a pro, and is now the standard for pass rushing DEs.
- Jimmy Graham (2010): basketball player with great size, athleticism and footwork who took up football. Very raw initially. Mike Mayock predicted it would take at least 2 years for him to start to make an impact. It obviously didn't.
- Nate Solder (2011): former TE, outgrew the position and was moved to offensive tackle. Great footwork and agility for the position, insane athleticism. Is emerging as a top OT in his second year.
- JJ Watt (2011): former TE, terrific athleticism. Switched to defense, was quite raw at first. Now is all world.
- Richard Sherman (2011): former high school track and field star (hurdles, triple jump) as well as football. WR in college, was converted to CB as a junior, so was technically raw when he came out. Exploded as a pro. His athleticism, aggressiveness and background as a WR have all combined to make him one of the best coverage CBs in the NFL today, in only his second year.

Consider some of the current college crop:

- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon:high school basketball player and WR, switched to TE and then to defense, where he has emerged as an explosive pass rusher who is fluid enough in space to play CB at times. Possible 1st round pick in 2013.
- Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU: Ghanese track athlete who had never played football until 3 years ago. Reportedly ran a 10.9 100 meter dash and 21.9 200 meter at 260 lbs. Has exploded this year, and is getting consideration as a possible 1st round pick. Plays OLB, DE and DT and 270+ lbs.
- Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota: highly recruited TE and basketball player out of high school, was switched to DE and then DT. Has emerged as a starter this year and has dominanted inside with 6.5 TFL and 5 sacks, now regularly requires double teams. Getting serious pro interest, considering declaring.
- Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado: basketball player and 4 star recruit as a DE. Stagnated a bit, and got moved to as a junior TE, where he is thriving. Supposedly has 4.55 speed at 6'6" 260#. Was also a multiple track letterman in highschool where he was a sprinter despite playing DE, and reportedly ran a 11.1 100 meter dash and 23.7 200 meter.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati: former quarterback before being converted to TE. Also a basketball and track standout in high school, had trouble picking football over basketball. Now considered a fast rising draft prospect.
- Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St.: recruited to Ohio St. as a TE, also played basketball and participated in track in high school. How 6'8" and 305-310#, in his first year of playing RT for the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and Michigant St. both recruited Fragel, but wanted to convert him immediately to OT, and he was unwilling, otherwise he might be a much higher rated prospect by this time.
- Kyle Long, OT, Oregon: former baseball pitcher who only converted to football last year. Still technically raw, combines massive size and athleticism.

There are lots of others. I'm including kids who were either cross-sports late switches to football and/or positional switches. All were relatively late comes to their eventual positions, and all had to deal with either the technical challenges of a new sport/position and/or the challenges of a changing physical frame. Obviously, not all of these stories are the same, and not all kids develop at the same rate, or necessarily succeed. But it seems like there are scads of uber-athletic kids with cross sports backgrounds who either come to football late or who undergo positional switches and are late to pick up a position. All of these kids tend to be technically a bit behind their more experienced peers, but have superior athleticism. Those with the drive to succeed frequently seem to do so. Many of these kids are available fairly late in the draft process because their technical ability or control over their bodies hasn't yet matured.

I'm guessing that we'll see more and more of colleges finding raw but ultra-athletic kids who don't have much football experience and/or have a cross-training experience, and will tinker more and more with moving players to different positions. TE seems to be a bit of a nexus in terms of size/athleticism. We've seen a lot of kids with TE backgrounds move to DE or to OT, and some kids with DE backgrounds move to TE. It seems like some of these kids may be good day 3 pickups for those patient enough to work on their fundamentals. JJ Watt, Jimmy Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul and Richard Sherman are good examples of how quickly these kind of athletes and can develop if they have enough drive to succeed. It might not be a bad draft strategy to target some of these kids, particularly those that are available day 2 or 3.
I love it, one of the best posts in a while. I think the true bargains are going to be found in exactly the type of players you just described, just like football is all about creating a mismatch, so is scouting, and this is it.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:41 AM   #4
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

I think the keys with trying to identify these types of players are:

1. Personality/character. This is the most important. Are they driven to succeed? Are they intelligent enough to pick things up quickly? These are obviously the traits you are looking for. On the other hand, those athletes that rely purely on their athleticism scare me.

2. Coaching and scheme. Ansah is a good example here. BYU are a quality defensive team and the coaches clearly emphasise this part of the game and therefore coach well and this makes Ansah a worthwhile pick. Would Ansah be the same prospect if he was at Baylor? How about if he was a TE at Stanford? You are more likely to get NFL success out of one of these players if he comes from a team/scheme that emphasises his particular position or skill-set.
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Old 12-02-2012, 09:56 AM   #5
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

Quote:
Originally Posted by manxman2601 View Post
I think the keys with trying to identify these types of players are:

1. Personality/character. This is the most important. Are they driven to succeed? Are they intelligent enough to pick things up quickly? These are obviously the traits you are looking for. On the other hand, those athletes that rely purely on their athleticism scare me.

2. Coaching and scheme. Ansah is a good example here. BYU are a quality defensive team and the coaches clearly emphasise this part of the game and therefore coach well and this makes Ansah a worthwhile pick. Would Ansah be the same prospect if he was at Baylor? How about if he was a TE at Stanford? You are more likely to get NFL success out of one of these players if he comes from a team/scheme that emphasises his particular position or skill-set.
I think these are good points. Guys who rely on their athleticism aren't generally going to do well. Guys with superior athleticism who are highly motivated, driven and quick learners but somewhat raw due to inexperience may do extremely well.

Ansah is a good example because supposedly he's a very bright kid and a quick learner, and he showed the work ethic to keep on plugging away for 3 years when there wasn't much to show for it in terms of productivity and results. But it's hard to tell - Jason Pierre-Paul wasn't known for his mental acumen, but he's had no problems adjusting.

The Pats have drafted 2 very athletic guys in the past 2 years who have progressed much more quickly than anticipated: Nate Solder and Chandler Jones. Both look like foundational players at this point - 10 year Pro Bowl caliber impact players at their respective positions. I obviously have no idea which of the guys listed in the OP will go on to greatness and which ones won't, but I think that the intangibles will be a big part of separating the wheat from the chaff.

The Pats have always valued experience and college productivity. There was a time when BB seemed to be leery of drafting juniors. There's also a line of thinking that he favors a high floor for high draft picks over a high ceiling. Some of that may be slowly evolving. It will be interesting to see how these kind of players do over the next 3 years, and I expect to see more of them coming down the road.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:49 AM   #6
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post

When Connor Barwin emerged in 2008/2009 he seemed like a relatively rarity. An uber-athletic kid with a basketball as well as a football background who had been switched positions in college and suddenly exploded on defense, leading the Big East in sacks.

It seems like this kind of story is becoming more and more commonplace. Guys with cross-sports backgrounds and insane athleticism who move to football and develop quite rapidly. Guys who change positions in college (sometimes more than once), sometimes switching from offense to defense, finding the position that best suits both their frame and their personality. There are clearly guys who seem better mentality suited to playing on one side of the ball than the other, and who thrive once they change positions.

Consider some recent examples:

- Jason Pierre-Paul (2010): a 4 year letterman in basketball who only took up football after a leg injury. Thrived because of his exceptional length and athleticism, but was considered technically raw when drafted. Exploded as a pro, and is now the standard for pass rushing DEs.
- Jimmy Graham (2010): basketball player with great size, athleticism and footwork who took up football. Very raw initially. Mike Mayock predicted it would take at least 2 years for him to start to make an impact. It obviously didn't.
- Nate Solder (2011): former TE, outgrew the position and was moved to offensive tackle. Great footwork and agility for the position, insane athleticism. Is emerging as a top OT in his second year.
- JJ Watt (2011): former TE, terrific athleticism. Switched to defense, was quite raw at first. Now is all world.
- Richard Sherman (2011): former high school track and field star (hurdles, triple jump) as well as football. WR in college, was converted to CB as a junior, so was technically raw when he came out. Exploded as a pro. His athleticism, aggressiveness and background as a WR have all combined to make him one of the best coverage CBs in the NFL today, in only his second year.

Consider some of the current college crop:

- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon:high school basketball player and WR, switched to TE and then to defense, where he has emerged as an explosive pass rusher who is fluid enough in space to play CB at times. Possible 1st round pick in 2013.
- Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU: Ghanese track athlete who had never played football until 3 years ago. Reportedly ran a 10.9 100 meter dash and 21.9 200 meter at 260 lbs. Has exploded this year, and is getting consideration as a possible 1st round pick. Plays OLB, DE and DT and 270+ lbs.
- Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota: highly recruited TE and basketball player out of high school, was switched to DE and then DT. Has emerged as a starter this year and has dominanted inside with 6.5 TFL and 5 sacks, now regularly requires double teams. Getting serious pro interest, considering declaring.
- Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado: basketball player and 4 star recruit as a DE. Stagnated a bit, and got moved to as a junior TE, where he is thriving. Supposedly has 4.55 speed at 6'6" 260#. Was also a multiple track letterman in highschool where he was a sprinter despite playing DE, and reportedly ran a 11.1 100 meter dash and 23.7 200 meter.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati: former quarterback before being converted to TE. Also a basketball and track standout in high school, had trouble picking football over basketball. Now considered a fast rising draft prospect.
- Reid Fragel, OT, Ohio St.: recruited to Ohio St. as a TE, also played basketball and participated in track in high school. How 6'8" and 305-310#, in his first year of playing RT for the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and Michigant St. both recruited Fragel, but wanted to convert him immediately to OT, and he was unwilling, otherwise he might be a much higher rated prospect by this time.
- Kyle Long, OT, Oregon: former baseball pitcher who only converted to football last year. Still technically raw, combines massive size and athleticism.

There are lots of others. I'm including kids who were either cross-sports late switches to football and/or positional switches. All were relatively late comes to their eventual positions, and all had to deal with either the technical challenges of a new sport/position and/or the challenges of a changing physical frame. Obviously, not all of these stories are the same, and not all kids develop at the same rate, or necessarily succeed. But it seems like there are scads of uber-athletic kids with cross sports backgrounds who either come to football late or who undergo positional switches and are late to pick up a position. All of these kids tend to be technically a bit behind their more experienced peers, but have superior athleticism. Those with the drive to succeed frequently seem to do so. Many of these kids are available fairly late in the draft process because their technical ability or control over their bodies hasn't yet matured.

I'm guessing that we'll see more and more of colleges finding raw but ultra-athletic kids who don't have much football experience and/or have a cross-training experience, and will tinker more and more with moving players to different positions. TE seems to be a bit of a nexus in terms of size/athleticism. We've seen a lot of kids with TE backgrounds move to DE or to OT, and some kids with DE backgrounds move to TE. It seems like some of these kids may be good day 3 pickups for those patient enough to work on their fundamentals. JJ Watt, Jimmy Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul and Richard Sherman are good examples of how quickly these kind of athletes and can develop if they have enough drive to succeed. It might not be a bad draft strategy to target some of these kids, particularly those that are available day 2 or 3.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:52 PM   #7
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Default Re: The Barwinian Theory of Football Evolution

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The Pats have always valued experience and college productivity. There was a time when BB seemed to be leery of drafting juniors. There's also a line of thinking that he favors a high floor for high draft picks over a high ceiling. Some of that may be slowly evolving. It will be interesting to see how these kind of players do over the next 3 years, and I expect to see more of them coming down the road.
All of this is true.

There are two things I wonder about Barwin:
(1) If BB had known that he'd be largely switching to a 4-3, would Barwin's value to the Pats have been high enough?
(2) I wonder if his history of deafness (he's not completely deaf now, but his hearing's not 100%, either) mattered.
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Old 12-02-2012, 11:55 PM   #8
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Consider some recent examples:
*cough* Ebner *cough*

Seriously, though, as I posted before, Ebner's pro day numbers were every bit as insane for a DB as Barwin's were for a DE/OLB-type.
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Old 12-03-2012, 02:41 AM   #9
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Great post. Thought-provoking stuff.

What do you folks think about a WR to FB conversion a la Marcel Reece?

There's always receivers who go undrafted. Finding a physical receiver and developing him into a lead blocker would open up the playbook a little more when the Pats go with their 2 TE, 2 RB package.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:23 AM   #10
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*cough* Ebner *cough*

Seriously, though, as I posted before, Ebner's pro day numbers were every bit as insane for a DB as Barwin's were for a DE/OLB-type.
Yes, and I think the Pats took Ebner in part based on the "insane athlete" theory. And in part because he was an ace STer, and the late 6th round is an area where they often pick ST aces anyway, so why not pick one with insane athleticism who might develop into something more?

But no matter how you slice it, Ebner was much more of a developmental project at DB than the guys I listed, all of whom had starting experience and college success at their respective positions.
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