patfanken

This is a little outside the box because it goes against what the Pats have normally done in recent drafts, which is accumulate massive amounts of them. And its worked. However this year I think we need to do the opposite.

A number of people have done speculative 53 man rosters including myself. In every case its fairly easy to fill those rosters with a good mix of current players on the roster without any draft. I did one and could only see room for 3-4 rookies and STILL winding up cutting a lot of good players. To use all 7 picks would only mean that at least close to half are likely to end up on another team's roster come September.

So I propose to limit my picks to 4 by trading up and trading out to 2013 and still get 3 players who can make an immediate (at least by mid season) impacts on the team. Using more than 4 picks will ultimately be a waste

A few assumptions - Light retires, Waters doesn't, Carter is re-signed

1. I look at our biggest need and I see it being S. However there isn't a S in this year's draft who would make a huge impact on our defense or be worthy to move up for.

2. The next biggest need is an interior pass rusher who can push the pocket from either a 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. There is one player who fits that description and that's Fletcher Cox. If he's available I'd go to the Cards who don't have a 2nd round pick and trade the 27 and 48 for the 13, and select Fletcher Cox. And for those of you who don't like this pick because you don't think he can play 2 gap. Bull puckie. Most college DLmen don't learn to 2 gap. The guy is 6'4 300lbs with 4.7 speed, and a good 3 cone time for his position. He can LEARN to 2 gap over time. In the mean time he can play an immediate important role in our defense

3. Then with the 31 I trade down with either Cleveland who is trying to move up into the first round to get one of the 2nd tier QBs or St Louis who might want to get ahead of the Giants to grab Fleener. I should be able to get at least 3rd in the 2013 draft for that trade possibly a 2nd. Then with that pick early in the 2nd round I grab Shea McCellin. Another fast riser, he put his hand down as a DE or stand up as an OLB. A situational player this season and Andre Carter's understudy.

4. Now comes pick #62 Lots of ways to go with this one. Here is one scenario. We take the #62 and the Pats 4th round pick plus Sergio Brown (a proven solid special teamer) and move up in a trade with the Eagles because Jenoris Jenkins will still be there and both Detroit and Cincinnati will be there ready to pounce Yes I think his fall will be that deep. He is NOT a good guy and is a serious risk. However his talent is just too great to pass up and the Pats locker room is as good a place for him to find stability as any in the league.

5. Now with #92nd pick in the 3rd round the Pats can go a lot of ways positionaly but I think it would be best if the Pats went for their developmental FS and pick Markelle Martin

So here is the Pats 2012 draft

1. Cox - DE/DT
2. McClellin DE/OLB
3. Jenkins CB
4. Martin FS
5. A 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2013

You then bring in McCourty and tell him that starting in OTA's he'll be working as the FS with the starting D. Jenkins and Dowling will be the starting outside CBs, while Arrington plays the slot and Chung plays the other S. Moore, Barrett, Cole and Martin provide depth.

I'd rather Jenkins be a strong 6 footer, but you just can't deny Jenkins effectiveness against some of the best WRs in the SEC, and who are currently doing well in the NFL, like Julio Jones

A second scenario in case Fletcher (as I fear) will land outside our reach in the top 10. We now swap our #31 and 62 and move up to #19 (Eagles) to pick Dontario Poe who is falling fast. This is a risk pick I WOULD take and like much more than Brockers because I think the kid just needs better coaching. Its no like people are saying his lack of production is a function of a lack of a motor, but a lack of skill. The Pats are a perfect place for him to learn under Pepper and Vince....and the upside is enormous.

Now with the 27 and 47 still in the bag the Pats now have a lot of flexibility. Now if they want to trade down to the early part of 2nd they would definitely get a 2nd OR if they move down to later in the round they could pick up a first next year and a 3rd this year. So if they did the former. They could pick up Poe with the first trade. Trade down to the early 2nd and pick up McCellin as before. Get Jenkins with the 48. Get Martin with the 3rd and trade out of the 4th round pick for a 3rd next year

That scenario would net:

1. Poe DT/NT
2. McClellin DE/OLB
3. Jenkins CB
4. Martin S
5. 2013 2nd round pick
6. 2013 3rd round pick

These aren't all the players I would want, but I think they are the best players we can get in the positions we are going to draft. I see no reason to draft a RB, TE, WR, or OLman. What do you think

ATippett56

I would not touch Dontari Poe with a ten foot pole. A classic case of weight room performance, or in Poe's case underwear olympics, does not translate on to the football field.

I would rather trade down from the #31 overall selection, grab an additional third round draft pick in the top half of the third round, and select Josh Chapman, NT from Alabama. The combination of a Devon Still and Josh Chapman or Kendall Reyes and Josh Chapman far outweighs any trade up for Dontari Poe.

As for the LSU defensive lineman prospect, I would trade up for Michael Brockers only if he slipped into the twenties.

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The End of the Chad Ochostinko Era!

patfanken

I am wary of Poe too, Tip, but for some reason I'm less worried about him long term than I am about Brockers. I've read reports about Brockers "motor" being questionable. I haven't hear that about Poe. Just about a lack of production that doesn't match the physical abilities. Well if the motor isn't an issue, then for me its just a matter of coaching. Coaching and time, and in the right environment, eventually you get a player who matches production with physical skills.

With Poe I think the only risk is how much time it will take before you see potential reach production. I would say probably a year to get more than situational snaps out of him, and 2 before you see consistent production, and then by the 3rd you have an all pro DT/NT.

With Brockers the ceiling may be slightly higher, but the floor is lower. I have no idea why people are so high on him. The clips I see on him aren't awe inspiring. He looks like a standard run of the mill run stopper...and we got a bunch of those. Mo Wilkerson looked better on tape than Brockers. What's the fuss.

If someone can explain it to me, I'll change my second scenario from Poe to Brockers. IMHO they both will be there in the late teens. What did you think about the rest of it

ATippett56

Which may be the reason why Bill Belichick invited Michael Brockers for a visit to the New England Patriots facility.

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The End of the Chad Ochostinko Era!

State

Poe got owned by a guard who won't even get a sniff from the NFL

I agree with Poe, who reminds me of that guy the Jets traded up for from Kentucky, Robertson, that we obviously lured them into. But Poe's laziness is a killer. Character is king with the Patriots braintrust, which is why a lot of people are more prudent than I about Bruce Irvin.

I'm not sure, Patchick, if that deal can get done without unloading both our firsts. I looked at the numbers, the point system, and the two firsts we have puts us at #11. I don't think going from #31 to #48 in addition to our first first we'll get it done.

But you're right on as usual about everything else.

And now we've got Bobby Carpenter! (My pet from years ago.) Life is good.

SeymourTrophies

A guy as big as Poe should never need to do a spin move. Just physics (velocity x mass) alone should mean he can bull rush as he pleases, but you don't see him doing that. Someone dropped the Haynesworth reference in another thread. Sadly, it's looks true. Someone will fall in love with his athleticism, but he's underwhelming in games.

In a search to guess WTH BB is going to do at OLB/DE, I remain puzzled. I was trying to go off of what JC showed at Florida that BB may have liked over Dunlap and the like, but JC was pretty underwhelming at Florida. He also bulked up before the draft and started to stand his ground against the run before going to Narnia (still hasn't returned).

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Metaphors

I doubt the Pats signed Gregory to a 3-year FA deal with the intent of cutting him before OTA's begin. Your draft scenario could still play out, but I think the end result would be Martin providing depth at safety and Jenkins bumping Arrington to CB depth/ST ace...which is where he belongs IMO.

patsfaninpa

Very good job patfanken. We really have to hit the defense. Matt Light and Brian Waters haven't retired yet. I'm assuming they are both coming back. Our four backups on the OL are; Solder, Cannon, Gallery and Wendell. We don't even need a backup OL. The OL is stacked. TE is stacked. QB is stacked. I guess we could draft a rb or wr. But, I have confidence in Vereen coming back. We have a ton of veteran wr's. How much work is a rookie going to get? Probably not worth the aggravation. I'll have mine up this afternoon. Let me know what ya think.

ATippett56

What you're selling, I'm not buying. The New England Patriots defense needs a player overhaul since only the following players are worthy of a roster spot:

Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Brandon Deaderick
Jonathan Fanene
Rob Ninkovich
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Dane Fletcher
Patrick Chung
Devin McCourty
Ras-I Dowling
Kyle Arrington
Sterling Moore

Seven picks? The New England Patriots only have six picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.

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The End of the Chad Ochostinko Era!

Metaphors

Check out the players you left off:
Cunningham (24 yo)
Brace (25)
Pryor (26)
Barrett (27)

Are you saying these guys can't possibly improve, particularly with a return to the 3-4 and a normal offseason? Barrett was starting before he got hurt. Pryor was working into a nice sub DT role with Wright before he got hurt. If Cunningham and Brace (victims of the lockout and switch to the 4-3) were as useless as you imply, don't you think Belichick would have cut them loose by now? O'Connell, CJack and Price think so.

Trevor Scott (28)
Steve Gregory (29)

Worst case has Scott keeping a roster spot warm for Andre Carter. Best case he is Vrabel 5th year redux. As for Gregory, you typically don't give camp bodies a $2.5M check and a 3-year contract.

Not all of these guys will pan out, but none are old enough to pass judgement on their careers. Even including them, there is room for a starting DE, a virtually starting slot CB (upgrading Arrington) and a rush end to replace Mark Anderson.