Metaphors

Then you think Ohrnberger is a success. I'm pretty sure he has been competing for a starting job the last couple of years. He just couldn't beat out Connolly. Considering how well Connolly played, that isn't a tragedy.

Also consider that Ohrnberger is 25 years old and in his 3rd year. Neal didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Connolly didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Hochstein didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 26.

The Pats have show a proclivity for taking projects (Neal, Maneri and now Yeatman) and overachievers and seeing if Dante can turn them into contributors. That takes patience and a longer-term perspective. Doesn't guarantee success but even hitting on a low percentage of guys gives the Pats significant bang for the buck. Seems like a better approach than giving a guy 1 or 2 seasons before tossing him into the JAG bin and looking for a replacement.

SanAngeloState

problem with ohrnberger's pick is that he wasn't that good in college. He was a small, nifty little guy. BB bonded with him over the fact that he played Lacrosse...also Pioli said that "he's the guy I would want in a street fight with me" or something like that. Why trade up for a guy who was most likely going to be an udfa? Didn't make sense to me. They seem to have a lot of picks they are really hot for and trade up for and it usually doesn't work...jackson, bethel johnson, ohrnberger.

It does surprise me that almost no one picked after him has done anything a an OL. I thought you could take later round guys and make decent guards out of them...there should be 20 or 30 OL coming into the league every year somehow to replace the older players retiring.

Shelterdog

Casserly has a study that has very similar results; defining success as becoming an NFL starter for the drafting team within four years of being drafted he found that first-round draft picks have a 75% chance of success. Second-rounders, 50%. Third-rounders, 30%. Fourth-rounders, 25%. Fifth-rounders, 20%. Sixth-rounders and seenth rounders were both about 10%.

Casserly, Billick Talk NFL Draft


You do expect a little more from players picked at less valuable positions (if a fourth round OLB gets cut, oh well, but a fourth round guard or a sixth round long snapper probably should hold roster sports for three or four years) but roughly speaking a fourth rounder who doesn't every become a starter isn't an obvious bust.

Armchair Quarterback

I wouldn't call being 7th on the depth chart pushing for a starting job or quality depth. I wouldn't call getting released pushing for a starting job.

Here are some more fun facts:

Neal didn't play college football, Neal was not drafted
Hochstein was a street free agent
Connolly was a street free agent
Maneri was claimed on waivers
Yeatman is an undrafted free agent


What do they all have in common? That's right. They were not 4th round draft picks, in fact none of them were drafted by the Patriots at all. Neal by the way, had in fact earned a starting position in his second year. He happened to get hurt in that game against GB, missing the rest of the season as well as the next.

If you want to use Neal, Maneri or Yeatman as examples, they are the exact opposite of what Ohrnberger is. All three have the physical prototype and athleticism which make them low risk high reward type players, especially considering they cost nothing to acquire. Ohrnberger did in fact come with a cost, a 4th round pick, did not have anywhere close to ideal measurables and has done very little up to this point to justify his selection.

Maybe he will turn it around this year and prove me wrong, if he does, great, more power to him and the team. I just don't think end of the roster, fringe type players are what's ideally hoped for for 4th rounders and if you ask my opinion he has not been a good pick up to this point, no matter what the Patfans thought police try to tell me.

Metaphors

The Pats never intended to give a 290 lb rookie OG any meaningful snaps. They saw enough of his mental makeup and technique to invest a 4th round pick to get a potential gameday active interior lineman (swing guy, spot starter, select packages). Connolly and Wendell have more time in the program so he had an uphill battle to get on the field. The key is the Pats haven't really suffered much with Mankins or Neal out.

This year Ohrnberger, Connolly and Wendell are competing for 1 or 2 spots. If Ohrnberger washes out and the Pats have to settle with an unexpected and insufficient alternative, that is a waste. If Ohrnberger is beaten out by a superior talent who developed better and is a better fit, that is just good football. That is the difference that you don't seem to consider or understand. Having 4th round guards that are beaten out by successful developmental types is the sign of good roster management, not poor drafting.

So if Ohrnberger is cut or inactive and the Pats have a talent issue in the interior line, he was a failed pick. That clearly wasn't the case last year and I doubt it will be the case this year. I wouldn't worry about the thought policy. Criticizing a day 3 selection of an OG that didn't see the field much by age 25 is a minor infraction. Probably get off with a warning.

Armchair Quarterback

He was cut last year and when he was re signed he was only active for two games as a reserve. How is that not the case? It could also be relatively easy to argue that Quinn Ojinnaka was an unexpected and insufficient alternative, one that cost the Patriots another pick. So rest assured I have considered and I do understand your scenerio, however I have last year to fall back on and you have a future unknown hypothetical.


Also do you really believe that they spent a 4th rounder on someone they didn't intend to give any meaningful snaps to? What kind of rational is that? And he wasn't a rookie last year.

DaBruinz

Ohrnberger ranged from a low 3rd/high 4th to a UDFA. To say that "most" viewed him as a 7th rounder/udfa is a huge stretch..



NFL Draft Scout----Powered By: The Sports Xchange

Now, something to remember about Ohrnberger is that he was the last guy cut. He was also one of the first promoted off the practice squad..

Also, I think you have misinterpretted what patchick was saying. And that is that 2 of 23 straight O-line picks making an impact isn't very good numbers. so, maybe the talent, in general, just wasn't that good.

Armchair Quarterback

Well the link you provided had him as their 326th ranked player. I'm pretty sure that is 7th round/udfa type value considering only about 250 players get drafted. Not exactly a huge stretch.

Ohrnberger was released on September 4, along with 19 other players.

New England Patriots Transactions at NFL.com

I understand what Patchick was trying to say, However I fail to understand how other OL picked after Ohrnberger should affect how we view him at that spot. If Ohrnberger was picked in the 4th round and we all agree that the higher the round the greater chance of success, why should we use the failure of OL taken in rounds 5,6 and 7 to judge whether or not Ohrnberger was a solid pick or not.

And if the OL talent wasn't that good as you (and PC) say then maybe they shouldn't have reached for Draft Scouts' 326th ranked undersized OL.

DaBruinz

I kinda find it funny that you have Maneri and Yeatman on that list when they haven't accomplished jack in the NFL.

Hocstein was a 5th round pick by the Bucs. Connolly was a UDFA for the Jaguars and got cut a few times before the Pats claimed him off waivers.. And then he was cut by the Pats as well.

In other words, Just because the guy was cut once by the Pats doesn't make him a failure. And it took them a few years (Neal included) to make an impact.

Neal didn't earn a starting position in his 2nd year. He got the start because of other people being banged up. And it was the 5th game of the season. You're acting like he was starting out of TC, which wasn't the case at all.

You wanna know what else Neal, Hochstein, Connolly and Maneri all have in common? They were all cut by the Pats at least once...

DaBruinz

It's amazing how you read only what you want to read and ignore other stuff.

First, where they rank players doesn't mean anything to the Pats and you are being ignorant to think it does. The Pats, under Belichick, have not used ANY of the outside scouting bureaus. So to say that player xyz wat rated 326th doesn't mean a damn thing.

Secondly, that same page shows the HIGH and LOWs of where the player was ranked. Something you ignored.

Third, you fail to understand because you don't want to. You have your mind set that Ohrnberger is a bust and that's that. You have shown that you aren't willing to rationally look at other information.

Lastly, hindsight is 20/20. I can sit here and say, now, that the OL quality wasn't that good, but clearly that isn't something that was known then. I understand that. YOU clearly don't. It's an irrational supposition on your part.

We get it. You don't like Ohrnberger. So don't participate in the conversation if all you are going to do is b!tch, whine, and be irrational while ignoring some pertinent information.