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OK, let's actually look at the full scenario if you trade up for Von Miller.
Everybody seems to agree that it will take both first-round picks (at the minimum). Most folks here also seem to agree that a starting-caliber DE is a must in this draft. Realistically, that will require a pick in the early/mid 20's. Let's say you trade up with a package like this...
#33 & #60 for #24 & #88
...and nab Muhammad Wilkerson.
Now you have #74, #88 & #92 remaining for day 2. Interior OL is a must. Board favorites Watkins, Ijalana and Boling are likely gone. Let's say you double up on guys who are ready and versatile, if somewhat low-ceilinged: James Carpenter (OG/RT) at #74, John Moffitt (OG/C) at #88. #92 is pretty wide open; let's take a shot at Greg Romeus.
So starting with 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds, you come away with:
Von Miller
Muhammad Wilkerson
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Greg Romeus
(no future picks acquired; not much opportunity for it in this scenario)
Happy?
I think I want you in the war room on draft day. That is quite a catch of picks you got there.
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I got the sarcasm just fine. Still, I'd be happy with the quality of picks she acquired is all.
I disagree with the quantity over quality argument.
IF they feel he's the answer and he falls to within the parameters they have set for his acquisition price I'm all for it. I forget the #s but this team doesn't have the roster space for another 10-12 rookies (I think).
Plus we all know we're going to get Ammo for next year.
It appeared they went for quantity last year but came away with quality to go with added picks in the next draft. As of right now I think I will be willing to take the risk on a few quality players unless there is a huge roster expansion in the near future. However, who are we to say Belichick can't have just as much success this draft as the last one? I think the odds are against him duplicating last years success but maybe BB works a lot better with a plethora of picks?
As of right now there is a chance, although unlikely, that along with the consensus top players, Watt,A Smith, Jordan will all be gone before we pick at 17. Personally I think this is a great draft to move up in and I don't want to miss out on some particular players that I think make this defense drastically improve. But in the end we are all just spectators.
As of right now there is a chance, although unlikely, that along with the consensus top players, Watt,A Smith, Jordan will all be gone before we pick at 17. Personally I think this is a great draft to move up in and I don't want to miss out on some particular players that I think make this defense drastically improve. But in the end we are all just spectators.
Yes, but I'd be far more open than trading up to #14 or so using a 3rd round pick than going to #7 for the cost of 2 first round picks.
__________________ When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee
OK, let's actually look at the full scenario if you trade up for Von Miller.
Everybody seems to agree that it will take both first-round picks (at the minimum). Most folks here also seem to agree that a starting-caliber DE is a must in this draft. Realistically, that will require a pick in the early/mid 20's. Let's say you trade up with a package like this...
#33 & #60 for #24 & #88
...and nab Muhammad Wilkerson.
Now you have #74, #88 & #92 remaining for day 2. Interior OL is a must. Board favorites Watkins, Ijalana and Boling are likely gone. Let's say you double up on guys who are ready and versatile, if somewhat low-ceilinged: James Carpenter (OG/RT) at #74, John Moffitt (OG/C) at #88. #92 is pretty wide open; let's take a shot at Greg Romeus.
So starting with 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds, you come away with:
Von Miller
Muhammad Wilkerson
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Greg Romeus
(no future picks acquired; not much opportunity for it in this scenario)
Happy?
This would be awesome. Wilkerson and Miller! The only thing I'd change is replace Romeus with either a RB (Vereen?) or trade into next year. How many more rookies do you want on the team this year? Especially in a weak draft like this?
I got the sarcasm just fine. Still, I'd be happy with the quality of picks she acquired is all.
What sarcasm? I was genuinely exploring the scenario, and doing my best to make it work. There'd been a lot of "Trade up for Von Miller!" and a lot of "Spend two first-rounders? Never!" But you can't look at that move in isolation. It affects the whole rest of the draft, e.g. in forcing a trade up from #33.
Some concerns I'd have:
- You can't count on a decent trade partner for that DE...or Wilkerson hanging around even until #24. If you have to give up #60 straight up to make the trade, or if you come away with Cam Heyward instead of Wilkerson, does that change your evaluation?
- BB always talks about not wanting big gaps in your basket of draft picks. Sitting out the whole 2nd round is HUGE. It ties your hands if a great value player slides, and it leaves you to sit and cross your fingers for 50 picks, hoping that the board falls your way.
- Giving up the chance to pick up extra value in 2012 is no small thing. It's been a longgg time since the Pats had only their own picks in the first 3 rounds.
But IF the scouts were convinced that Miller could be a true difference-maker in the Patriots defense, it might well be worth it.
What sarcasm? I was genuinely exploring the scenario, and doing my best to make it work. There'd been a lot of "Trade up for Von Miller!" and a lot of "Spend two first-rounders? Never!" But you can't look at that move in isolation. It affects the whole rest of the draft, e.g. in forcing a trade up from #33.
Some concerns I'd have:
- You can't count on a decent trade partner for that DE...or Wilkerson hanging around even until #24. If you have to give up #60 straight up to make the trade, or if you come away with Cam Heyward instead of Wilkerson, does that change your evaluation?
- BB always talks about not wanting big gaps in your basket of draft picks. Sitting out the whole 2nd round is HUGE. It ties your hands if a great value player slides, and it leaves you to sit and cross your fingers for 50 picks, hoping that the board falls your way.
- Giving up the chance to pick up extra value in 2012 is no small thing. It's been a longgg time since the Pats had only their own picks in the first 3 rounds.
But IF the scouts were convinced that Miller could be a true difference-maker in the Patriots defense, it might well be worth it.
Thought there was a slight hint there. Apologize, you seem conservative in most posts as does Belichick with his trading back. But he has made it be known in the past that if there was a player worth trading up for, he would do it. Apparently you do agree with him.
I like Cameron Heyward a whole bunch. He has great film and seems to be a perfect fit here. Tommy John surgery concerns me a little but I'd be more concerned if he was pitching for a MLB club. I like Wilkerson better because of his upside and strength along with his raw potential that just needs to be harnessed by a coach like BB. I'd be fine with either or though. They both improve the roster tremendously.
Doesn't anyone have concerns about the player himself?
Why are so many posters willing to jump on the Von Miller bandwagon.
What I see is Dwight Freeney 2.0.
A really good 4-3 passrush end. But not the right fit for our 3-4 system.
So he can speed rushes the passer real well BUT if he doesn't get to the QB he'll overrun the play.
Run straight at him and he'll get washed out by the OL.
What part of Von Miller looks like a complete 3-4 OLBer to you?
Can he even drop back in coverage.
How does he play with his hand off the ground?
Someone SELL me the Von Miller package.
As of now I just don't see it.
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