MaineMan

Here's my hypothesis:

The pass defense sucked in 2010, NOT because we didn't get a sufficient pass rush, but because D-line tackling sucked.

Passing yards allowed and passing first downs allowed both exploded to 22% and 26% over their 10-year averages, respectively. Meanwhile, sacks INCREASED to 36 (20% above the past two seasons) - to less than 5% below 10-year averages. How does that correlate? It doesn't.

Total scrimmage (non-special teams) tackles were NOT up significantly over average, in spite of what some folks appear to believe. The defense made 1044 tackles this year vs. a 1013 10-year average. That's two tackles per game. Not a big deal. In fact, the 2003 and 2006 (pretty good) defenses made 1049 and 1054 tackles respectively. So, the total tackle count doesn't appear to correlate to much either.

The question is, where did those tackles come from? Mayo was in on 174 of those 1044 - 17%. How did he get all those opportunities? Obviously, somebody between him and the LoS had to be slacking.

In fact, over the past 10 years, the top three D-linemen in tackles (always Wilfork and nearly always just the two starting 3-4 DES) typically accounted for about 175 tackles. That's just three guys generating about 11 tackles per game, most of them very near the LoS. Contrast 2010, when all EIGHT D-linemen accounted for a meager 152 tackles. Taking the most productive three, who weren't on the field for every down, of course, the D-line made only about 6 tackles per game instead of 11.

Meanwhile, rushing yards allowed and rushing first downs allowed in 2010 were only up over their 10-year averages by about 2% and 9% respectively.

In order to keep those rushing numbers relatively respectable with D-line tackle production being down by nearly 50% from average, somebody had to make up for those missing tackles. Mayo, of course. And certainly the other LBs. And probably the safeties. Which meant that they couldn't be in optimum position to defend the pass, even on 2nd-and-long and third down. AND, when our guys were in good pass defense positions, the opponent simply ran for 1st down yardage, knowing that our D-line alone couldn't stop them and that they wouldn't even need to use an extra blocker and take a pass-catcher out of the set to do so.

D-line tackle production was really the only significant statistical category that was "off" by an amount proportionate to the deterioration in pass defense. If we truly want to improve our pass defense, we should focus on acquiring a gap-clogging, run-stuffing 3-4 DE. Such a guy might allow our defense to keep an extra guy back in coverage and force opposing offenses to take a pass-catcher off the field in order to effectively run the ball - a two-man swing.

Seems to me that going out of our way to acquire a guy specifically to add 5-10 sacks per year wouldn't help nearly as much.

everlong

My first question would be how many of Mayo's 174 tackles were on runs vs passes? It seemed like a high percentage were on runs but still probably 65:35.

Next in 2007 with the Patriots nearly always playing with the lead and teams having to pass Seymour, Warren, Wilfork and Green combined for 109 tackles. Bruschi, AD, Vrabel, Harrison, Seau, Sanders and Hobbs all had over 50 tackles each. Again a limited pass rush with teams passing all the time played into this.

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MaineMan

I probably should have specified this. First, I used exclusively the numbers on Pro-Football-Reference, for the sake of comparative consistency and because they don't include ST tackles (which NFL.com and the other big sites don't separate). Second, I used solos + assisted across the board.

For 2007, they have:
- Warren = 51
- Wilfork = 48
- Green = 39
- Seymour = 23

The total is 161, one of the lower annual totals. But that was also the season that Seymour was out half the year with his injury and Green filled in.
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WRT Mayo's tackles - pass v. run - there's really no way to know without going through the play-by-play for each game and I've selfishly chosen to leave that research to someone who has even less of a life than I do.

In any case, it's a very good question and one of the first that I bring up when I encounter one of those knee-jerk contrarians who insist that Mayo is actually mediocre because "too many of his tackles are made too far beyond the LoS." As if they've actually made the distinction between pass and run tackles or have in hand some statistical standard on which they're basing their claims. And, of course, none of them ever bothers to wonder why Mayo is getting so many tackle opportunities in the first place.

Sciz

I don't think it was so much that the DL tackling sucked, but that DL couldn't shed blocks well enough to have a chance to make a tackle.

alvinnf

34 DE for me. I like the current players we have at OLB. I am interested to see how both Moore and Cunningham could do with both, another year in the system and a solid DE. TBC is on the bubble for me next year's camp. So bring in another draft pick 2nd or 3rd round and let TBC earn his spot. Or even higher of a pick if there is someone they really like. End might be an easier position to fill in FA. OL and 34 DE in that order are our areas of biggest need. I think this years draft is looking good for rush backers and OL in the first 2 rounds or so. Not so much for DE.

MaineMan

Yeah. I didn't really mean that their tackling sucked in the way that, say, Meriweather's tackling sucks.

MaineMan

See, I'm sorta on the opposite side WRT 3-4 DE and rush backers. I think there may be a couple proven rush backers we could get in FA (if there is such a thing this year). But, I'm not seeing a tall, run-stopping 3-4 DE anywhere. Besides, I think we want to set ourselves up for a few years to come, not just try to stop-gap the position again.

alvinnf

I don't think finding a 34 End is all that easy. Sure a stop gap, but not a legit 2 gapper. It's funny, we see the solution as completely opposite. In all the years we had Seymour here, mediots and pundits would try to define his worth by sacks. The problem is that in this defense the End is there to make everyone else better. Finding a player that can demand attention from two OL or a T and a TE, makes the whole thing go. I would love to see how well Moore and Cunningham would do lined up next to a legit DE. Now that does'nt mean I am not all for taking an edge rusher high. Do it, to it. I just think finding a good pash rusher will happen when we find good End play. Alla TBC's 10 sacks a year ago.

MaineMan

Wait. Maybe I misrad you and we're on the same page after all. The DE you describe - the one "who makes everyone else better" is exactly what I see us needing. I think there are at least two candidates in this draft who will be within reach of our existing picks. On the FA side, I'm not so sure.

WRT pass rushers, OTOH, I think there are guys we can get in FA. There are obviously several in this draft, as well, but I don't think we'll spend a high pick on one.

dryheat44

Well, your logic flows from your hypothesis, but I'd say your hypothesis is wrong. Yes our D-line tackles were down. Why?

Without putting in the research effort that you have (I'm working), I'd venture a guess that tackle numbers are down because rushing attempts were way down, because:

1) The NFL, as a whole, is evolving into a pass-heavy league,
2) The Patriots offense was uncommonly good early in games this year, forcing teams to pass often,
3) The book on the 2010 Patriots was that their defense can be exploited in the passing game, with 3 out of 4 DBs in thei1st or 2nd year, and Tully Banta Cain as the only OLB capable of generating a pass rush. Throwing often was probably the game plan for most of their opponents, and
4) There were very few games that the Patriots trailed late, where the opponent was trying to kill the clock with the running game.

Now, to answer the question posed in the thread, if I'm Belichick I take whichever guy is the best value in the spot, whether it be DE, OLB, or OL. There are clear needs at each position...I wouldn't advocate passing up a talented DE who fits the system to reach for a pass rusher.

However, I think the mentality that a mid-to-late first round pick needs to be a 3 down player needs to be re-evaluated. According to Reiss's homework, the Patriots were in a nickel or dime defense 57% of the time. Assuming the Brady-led offense maintains its level of efficiency, that percentage isn't going to decrease for a few years. If there's a run on 3-4 DEs in the first round, and the best value is a OLB whose strength is rushing the passer, then he should be drafted. 57% is a pretty good number of plays considering the rotations and sub-packages Belichick likes to use.

To me, the QB hurries and hits are just as important as 5-10 sacks. If a guy comes in and gets 8 sacks, he probably has twice as many hurries forcing the QB to get rid of the ball early and more instances of getting a hit on the QB.

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