Box_O_Rocks

Before I forget again, thanks for info.

EDIT: I double-checked Nut's comment, having had to endure his endless golfing stories and his fascination with peeing in the woods, I'd classify that as a Maine-iac pointing to his handmade i HeArT pAtRiCK WiLLyS t-shirt at a draft party. I'd recommend you view it as youtful [sic] and misguided enthusiasm for his boy, not an attempt to be obnoxious (he's fairly direct when that happens).

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Metaphors

Hmmm...I thought you meant graded as 1st rounders by scouts and people who are paid to do that. Lynch and Ginn are consistently graded as first round talent. Lynch may be sliding due to team needs and Ginn due to health reasons, but I've yet to see anyplace where they are graded as 2nd round or lower. I'm not as sure about Moss so I won't push back on him.

If the exercise was around who you grade as 1st round talent, then I think you are absolutely correct. Even so, 17 out of 20 ain't bad...

VJCPatriot

Seems to be a reach in the 1st. What happened to your theory that linebackers are not mismatch makers on the line of scrimmage??

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Box_O_Rocks

I think it went to page two.

As this post shows, I don't rule out OLBs in mismatch theory, assuming they have true LB experience. Oddly enough, there is a difference between theory on drafting strategy and personal choices. My assessment of team needs says LB depth, especially ILB, is #1. Bradley and Harris are the two highest ranking ILBs, based on various website rankings. Bradley is my #1, so as long as we are talking personal choice, I want Bradley - and as long as at least one draft "guru" expects him to go at "40-42," I would take him with one of the two available picks at the end of the first.
Draft Theory - Mismatch at the Line of Scrimmage

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captain stone

Your friend's friend wouldn't be Mike Ditka, would he?

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Box_O_Rocks

No picking on the handicapped.

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PATSNUTme

If I can't be obnoxius then what's the sense of posting?

I have come to the conclusion theat Willis will be gone, hopefully to Atalnta rather than Buffalo.

So, I trying to decide who my new best friend is now. The Pos?

dryheat44

Maybe we're falling into a semantic argument. Obviously there will be 32 guys drafted in the first round. So they're first rounders. If I remember correctly, Belichick tends to have 12-16 guys he feels are first rounders, and that's what I'm talking about.

To me, saying somebody is graded as a legit first rounder means that that player would be in the first round of the draft every single year. In my opinion, if Lynch, Ginn, or Moss were in the draft in another year, say last year, they wouldn't be first rounders. Lynch would have been drafted somewhere between Lendale White (45) and MJD (60) as the sixth running back off the board. Ginn would be slotted between Sinorice Moss (44) and Greg Jennings (52) as the fourth WR taken. Moss would have been between Darryl Tapp (63) and Frostee Rucker (91) as the fifth DE chosen.

Again, these are only my opinions, but that's where I feel those guys would be ranked a year ago. So while they may go in the first round, I don't consider them first round talent.

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Metaphors

My bad. I was trying to reflect actual "grades" (0-100) of scouts against these players, not that they were expected to be in the top 32 of this year's class. And certainly not trying to anticipate how the Pats would grade out the first round.

Generally you can figure out what number corresponds to a 1st round grade for a scout. The number of players with that grade could be less that 32 or more than 32. Without looking it up, my thought was that this was a top-heavy draft. Your post got me thinking about it and it seems that there are in fact about 20 players with solid 1st round grades. There seems to be a whole slew of players with borderline 1st/2nd grades.

If that observation is reasonable, then it seems like a lot of people on this board are zeroing in on a possible strategy for the Pats:

1. Stick at #24 since there is a good chance enough people will reach for need to make a "top" player available at #24 (or with a small trade-up).
2. Trade out of #28 into the 2nd round (good chance for solid value) for a 2008 pick.

Doesn't take a genius intellect to reach this conclusion, but it seems even more reasonable once you break down what the Pats are likely to face. Though I still have "faith" in some of the other GMs that they will let 2 elite players slip to the Pats.

dryheat44

That's the way I see it, but my hope is for one guy to slip to the Pats. I don't dare hope for two.

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When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee