midwestpatsfan

I think we have all learned that it is near impossible to really figure out which way the Patriots are going to go when it comes to the draft. That being said, I went back to analyze the 1st round picks of the BB/SP era and have found 2 trends that I think can help narrow the possiblities of who the Patriots might pick.

1. In the first round, The Patriots do not take players that will be forced to be "the guy" right off the bat. What that means is that they usually have an aging veteran that is probably in his last year or so but can offer some guidance to the rookie. In turn, the rookie can get some solid playing time and learn the system while not having all the pressure put on him.
Maroney-Dillon
Wilfork-Washington
Mankins-Light (I know that Mankins did indeed start from day one, but IIRC there were some injuries on the line, and with O-line it is better to get all the guys playing together from day one if possible.

Watson-Graham
Ty Warren-Bobby Hamilton, Anthony Pleasent, Richard Seymour
Daniel Graham-Christian Fauria

2. The Patriots do not take players that project to play at another position. With the amount of money invested and the relatively short time that the rookies first contract is, the Patriots cannot and do not risk taking someone who has to learn a new position. The players that the Patriots take do not necessarily have to make a huge impact their rookie season, but they do need to step in and play a role, and by their second season they should be a major contibutor in the system. Guys who have to learn a new position and the complicated system the patriots run just isnt what they are looking for in a player in the 1st round.

I realize that this could completely change this year, so please take this as a grain of salt. What do you think? Am I reaching here or is there some pattern here.

Box_O_Rocks

Interesting, but a bit off.

- Mankins was a LT who was moved inside to LG, he never played G before the Shrine Game.
- While Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork had all played DT, they all learned a radically different method.

- Where your hypothesis seems to match up...all four made sideways moves, the mentoring was there (Mankins/Hochstein, Seymour & Warren/Hamilton & Pleasant, Wilfork/Trailor, Graham & Watson/Fauria).

I agree that drafting a DE in the first round to make the move to LB would be out of character due to the severity of the move. Drafting a small LB for a move to SS is another area unlikely to occur in the first round.

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midwestpatsfan

You make good points there Box that I really didnt think about.

cstjohn17

I think you are reaching, not because what you wrote was inaccurate but because the sample size is so small and the roster development process is so fluid. I will join you in the "reaching" club.

My latest thinking is that the entire roster is driven off competition. I think it comes down to their "board" and how to increase the competition level across all units. All the picks they make and FAs they sign are to increase "competition" at the various positions, they want every position to have some uncertainly as training camp rolls along. Some of the competition ends up being for backup roles or special teams duty but every player is fighting for a roster spot (save some locks Brady, Seymour, etc.).

I think every position except QB, K, P could be selected in round 1. Whatever player is selected will be thrown into a competition for a starting position, even if they don't end up starting the environment helps create depth.

Some spots will be more up for grabs than others, and it is likely more players will be brought in to slug it out at ILB, FS and CB (especially if Samuel leaves).

When they say it takes a complementary game "ST, Offense and Defense" to win they really mean it, some units will be stronger than others but an overall balance is what they are striving for. At least that is what I think....

patchick

Honestly, I think it's a bit of a reach too. Mankins alone is a perfect contradiction of both rules: he was a pure LT in college who was drafted to fill the wide-open LG slot left by Joe Andruzzi. To support the idea that the Pats don't draft to fill day-one starter holes, you'd have to find such a hole that wasn't filled. I can't think of one.

Heading into 2006, where could a rookie have expected to get the most reps with the Patriots? The OL, DL QB, P and TE starting positions seemed solid. Safety depth looked good at the time with Wilson, Harrison, Jones and Sanders. Samuel and Hobbs had the clear inside track at CB, but a good rookie could have made some an impact as a nickel. K was a pure open slot, WR was up for grabs and Dillon was ready for a platoon partner. So that's:
CB, K, WR, RB
Sure enough, the Pats drafted to 3 of those 4 positions in the first 4 rounds. So I'm inclined to think that the Pats do indeed draft for need, and that what you see as a mentorship trend is simply drafting one year ahead of a roster hole.

Edit: WHOOPS, forgot LB! But I'll still stand by the principle of the thing.

midwestpatsfan

Okay, Okay,
So maybe I was reaching a little bit. It is probably more to the fact that the overall roster is solid, so there really is never a need to have a player come in and be "the guy" right away.

Ochmed Jones

I think if someone asked BB about his draft trends and strategies, he would answer something to the effect that he has no hard and fast riules, that each draft is different and each year his team is in a different situation.

This year most of us are concerned about the back eight on defense and the WR situation.

BB is currently examining individual player reviews for the past year. He may not see the glaring need on the back eight that we see. His defense was second best in the NFL in points allowed and that was with minimal depth, due to injuries, and marginal talent at half the positions. (Seau, Hawkins, Sanders and Hobbs)
He has said publicly that sacks are over rated and he appears to prefer a efense that is stout against the run. It also appears that he prefers a defense that is assignment disciplined versus a loosy goosy faster recovery speed defense that gang tackles. (This is probably why he has to have tacklers on the defense. He is going to put you in position and you have to make the play.)

I do think that he has exhibited one draft day trend for sure, he will stay true to his draft board, even if it means drafting a Brock Williams in the third round. Or appearing to reach for a Logan Mankins in the first round or a Steve Gotkowski in the fourth round.

patsox23

All I need to know and all I care about is the following track record for 1st round picks:

Seymour
Graham
Warren
Wilfork
Watson
Maroney


They know what they're doing. Hopefully the two #1's this year will be LB/DB, but if they're not, one thing we'll know for sure - they'll be good players. This team is in such good position and nobody seems to know it.

BelichickFan

I've given up trying. I've had many guy feelings on how they think over the years but they usually get proven wrong.

makoute

Going by that, it would be D in the first round.