chevss454

This is a very well-written and amusing article from a former NFL LB who logically presents a great case why the Combine should be completely ignored when scouting a football player.

It Is What It Is The NFL combine: The joke that’s no longer funny

To claim that no bias creeps in when you see a “WOW!” combine performance means you’re either crazy or lying. Or maybe both if you’ve drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey into an average of $7.65 million annually based largely on an OK college career and the temptation of “measurables.” I mean this kid no ill will, but as a thieving point of reference, his annual salary averages are about four times that of Wes Welker, the league leader in receptions in ‘09 at the same position.

40-yard dash:

• Vital for knowing how a WR might perform when running go-routes without being covered, provided they still don’t throw him the ball.
• Extremely valuable for predicting performance for a kickoff coverage member if he’s unblocked and allowed to run in an unfettered straight line due to the ball being kicked out of the end zone for a touchback.
• Other than these two examples … this test is useless track-porn.

Of the 10 best workout guys I played with over the course of my career, nine are most likely guys you’ve never heard of. That’s no coincidence. If on the first day of offseason workouts the most impressive weight room guys on the team are also your new draft picks, the collective “uh-ohs” should shake the franchise. Those most responsible for the new arrivals would be wise to start scouring their network of contacts for future work to begin approximately two years from that day.

Tunescribe

He makes a compelling argument, but also goes a bit over the top. I suspect the most valuable aspects of team participation in the combine are the interviews and medical evaluations. It's simply a matter of convenience getting everyone together in one place. I agree that some of the drills/exercises seem nonsensical, the bench press being dumbest of all.

Box_O_Rocks

I'd happily just watch position drills, but the NFLTA crowd prefers to take their close-ups then.

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tanked_as_usual

the problem is that the combine used to be used as a reason NOT to draft players

now it is depended upon much too much on why you should draft a player

chevss454

Tank, you absolutely nailed it!

Very amusing article.

Box_O_Rocks

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chevss454

Great read, Box. His comments regarding the combine begin about 1/3 the way down and are very enlightening.

“The Combine is a test the NFL lets you cheat on, because you know all the questions before you take it. And yet few people take advantage of that.”

"Did Mamula and Boyle open the flood gates for speed camp shenanigans and athletic fakery to render the Combine completely useless? Or did they just create the high profile opportunity for the public to deem it so?

‘The tape doesn’t lie.’

Yes it does. The tape lies all the time. It’s as if the people have completely forgotten the likes of Todd Marinovich, Brian Bosworth and Tony Mandarich, draft busts from an era before effective Combine training. Speed camps haven’t made the draft process inherently less accurate. They’ve just given personnel people a new excuse for why they got it wrong, as well as football fans and writers a new opportunity to sound smart.

At the core of NFL prospecting is an evaluation of how well a player’s skills translate to the next level, where the players are bigger, stronger and faster. If you had perfect information about all of the players on your tape, perhaps you could do without some sort of objective measurement of a player’s skills. Unfortunately, that is just not the case."

"The most important parts of the Combine are events you’ll probably hear very little about, those being the interviews and the medical checks. Even when you do hear about the interviews, it’s good to remember that disinformation season is in full swing. This time last year, Vontae Davis was a big time character risk and Sean Smith was dumb as a box of rocks. I kid you not, I heard both from sources connected to teams. It turns out Sean Smith is a really bright kid and Vontae Davis’ vices include pestering great players for tips on how to be great, working out and watching film."

Snake Eyes

I wouldn't say the combine events are useless but they usually don't measure the right things.

A 40 time can be useful when evaluating a DB and to a lesser extent a linebacker, and a WR depending on the routes you want him to run. Those guys might very well have to run 40 yards in a straight line.

The problem is that people get obsessed with 40 times, I don't care about the 40 time on a QB or lineman, that's not what they do during the game. While running a quick 40 is nice for a RB I'd be far more interested in their ability to change directions, THAT is going to be vital during a game. That's why guys like Welker and Edelman are awesome, they can stop on a dime and re-accelerate again very quickly. In fact, for a lineman the initial acceleration is EXTREMELY important but were talking inches here, not yards.

Also, why just the 40? Why not also measure his 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30? For most positions I'd be more interested in his 5 or 10 as opposed to the 40. Dick Butkus was reputed to have an absolutely pathetic 40 time but everyone said he was the fastest guy in the team 10 yards in any direction. It wouldn't take anything extra to measure those other times, simply put an electronic sensor on the guy's shirt and send him off.

According to Marshall Faulk the actual acceleration stops before the athlete hits 10 yards, the rest of the way it's just about minimizing the deceleration.

The bench press is completely stupid and pointless, I'd rather give the guy 2 pilates balls for each hand and have him do pushups. For a lineman one is going to need to exert strength on multiple different vectors as well as still being able to apply strength in between those vectors. Also, they're only going to need to do it for a few seconds, get a stopwatch and measure how long the linemen actually go at it during a play. Short bursts of high intensity, throughout a game is what's needed, not bench press nonsense, which measure mostly endurance for those guys, not explosive strength.

So, measurables can be useful in evaluating a player but they need to be the right measurables and that data needs to be interpreted in the right way.

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TriplecHamp

For every Mamula or Gholston, there is a CJ or Adrian Peterson. The combine is useful when evaluated the right way.

Snake Eyes

Did you need the combine to know AP or CJ were great players? For top rated players one should probably look more to why they might be a bust, and vice versa for the lower ranked guys.

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