mayoclinic

A week ago I posted a 4 round mock offseason and draft. Based on last week's loss to Miami and how things currently look, I thought I would make a revised attempt at what just a Pats offseason might look like:

Assumptions:

1. 2010 is an uncapped year.
2. Pats finish 10-6, win the division, and lose to Indy in the playoffs. As such, we are a "2nd 4" team in the group of 8, which has different rules than the "top 4" for signing external FAs.
3. The Pats have the #20 and #52 picks in the draft, plus #42 (Tennessee) and #50 (Jacksonville).

Free Agency:

1. The Pats re-sign (or franchise) UFAs DT Vince Wilfork and TE Ben Watson.
2. The Pats re-sign UFA CB Leigh Bodden for 4 years, $24M.
3. The Pats tender RFAs OG Logan Mankins and K Stefan Gostkowki high tender offers.
4. The Pats sign UFA OLB Shawne Merriman for 4 years, $24M.
5. The Pats sign UFA RB Reggie Bush for 4 years, $14M.
6. The Pats do not re-sign UFAs Stephen Neal, Kevin Faulk, Jarvis Green, Derrick Burgess, Pierre Woods or Junior Seau (total savings about $15M).
7. The Pats cut CB Shawn Springs (savings about $2M).
8. The Pats trade OT Matt Light to Kansas City for the #70 pick in the draft (savings abuot $5.5).

The cuts, trades and lack of re-signings dave about $22.5M. That should cover most of the FA signings except for Wilfork (Bodden and Merriman about $6M each, Watson about $3M, Gostkowski about $2-3M, Bush $3-4M, and Mankins $4-5M = $24-27M). Wilfork would likely cost about $8M/year on top of that. Not impossible to manage.

Draft:

1. Rolando McClain, ILB. NE trades #20 and OLB Adalius Thomas (and probably some picks; James Sanders could also be a throw-in) to either Denver or SF to move up to the 10-12 range. With Merriman at OLB a pass rusher is not necessary with the 1st pick. McClain is a stud, and Merriman-McClain-Mayo will form one of the best LB corps in the NFL. CB Joe Haden or DE Cameron Heyward would get consideration if McClain is gone. If anyone thinks this is totally out of the question, consider what the Jets gave up last year to move up from 17 to 5.

2(42) Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB. A raw physical freak to pair with Merriman. Greg Hardy or Greg Romeus could also be options here, or possibly Everson Griffen or Jerry Hughes. Allen Bailey could also be an option as a 3-4 DE, in which case we would go DE/OLB with the #70 pick from KC.

2(50) Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C. An inside stud. OG Mike Iupati or OT/OG Gabe Carimi would also get consideration. A small trade up might be necessary here.

2(52) Joseph Barksdale, OT. A RT who would bring a physical dimension (with LT caliber footwork) to he right side like Vollmer brings to the left. Gabe Carimi would also be an option.

3(70) Corey Wootten, DE. A 6'7" guy who was considered a 1st round prospect at the beginning of the year. If we went DE instead of DE/OLB in the 2nd round, then someone like Austen Lane or Jeremy Beal could be an option here.

That offseason would fix our primary problems at OLB (including the pass rush), OL, and 3-4 DE. Merriman would give a veteran presence and a proven pass rusher, combined with a young guy to develop. Those additions, along with ILB Rolando McClain and the return of Tyrone McKenzie, would immediately upgrade our LB unit from the weakest area of the defense to possibly the strongest. Reggie Bush would replace Kevin Faulk and add an all-purpose threat to complement Maroney, with the right side of the line getting an upgrade.

Priorities in 2011 could include a shut down CB such as Patrick Peterson with the Raider's pick, and getting one of the available top WRs to develop as an eventual replacement for Moss.

__________________

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

bigcountry75

Sold!!! Let's get this plan to Belichick immediately and get this done.....That would be incredible....

mayoclinic

In this scenario, a possible 53 man roster might be:

QB(2): TBrady, BHoyer
RB(5): LMaroney, RBush, SMorris, FTaylor, BJGreen-Ellis
WR(6): RMoss, WWelker, BTate, JEdelman, SAiken, IStanbeck
TE(3): BWatson, CBaker, +1 (possible 4th-7th round draft pick)
OT(4): SVollmer, JBarksdale, NKaczur, MLeVoir
OG/C(5): LMankins, DKoppen, MPouncey/MIupati/GCarimi, ROhrnberger, DConnolly

DE(6): TWarren, VWilfork, ABailey/CWootten, MWright, RBrace, MPryor
OLB(4): SMerriman, JPierre-Paul/GHardy/GRomeus/JBeal/ALane, RNinkovich, SCrable
ILB(5): JMayo, RMcClain, GGuyton, TMcKenzie, EAlexander
S(4): BMeriweather, PChung, BMcGowan, JSanders/BLockett
CB(5): DButler, LBodden, JWilhite, TWheatley, KArrington

K: SGostkowski
P: CHanson/Rookie
ST: MSlater
LS: JIngram

Offensively we would be essentially the same, but the right side of the OL would be upgraded, and Reggie Bush could become a major weapon with more screens and draws. We could also draft a big running back in rounds 4-7 such as LeGarrette Blount.

Defensively we would have a lot of flexibility. We could run a 3-4 with Merriman, McClain, Mayo and the rookie DE/OLB. McClain could play 4-3 SAM with Mayo at ILB and Guyton/McKenzie at WLB, and the rookie DE/OLB and possibly Merriman playing DE. We should be much better against the run, and our pass rush should get much more pressure to set up our playmakers in the back 7.

Personally, I like it.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

everlong

Part of the problem this year with the defense is that Bill held out on retooling for too long and then when he did he went full force. Harrison, Bruschi, Vrabel, and Seymour all gone in one shot. Harrison and Bruschi were done so nothing you can do there. Seymour the price was right I'm ok with it. I wish they had held on to Vrabel even though he's lost a step. He'd still be a team leader and he would still rush the passer more consistently and with more heart and effort than Burgess or AD.

I'd prefer to keep Faulk who's a leader and shows heart. Plus he doesn't look to be slowing down.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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everlong

I know you and I have had this debate before but I still think AD is un-tradable with that contract and his production. I do like the idea of Merriman as I don't see the Pats going first round OLB and if they got McClain I agree that McClain, Mayo, McKenzie and Guyton would make a solid ILB core.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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mayoclinic

Always an option if he will re-sign for a reasonable amount. I agree Faulk shows no signs of slowing down, and he's been clutch for us. But he'll be 34, which is geriatric for a RB. Bush is 25, and is much more explosive than Faulk. If we could get Bush, I'm not sure I'd see the need. But I'd be fine with re-signing Faulk for low $ as insurance.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

everlong

I think for a RB who has 2,000 carries between the tackles it's more like life support but he's not that back.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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mayoclinic

I don't see AD as untradeable. He'll be 32 and he has lots of value at both 3-4 OLB and SILB. He needs a change of venue. He could help both Denver and SF, possibly more than a rookie. I'm not sure his contract is prohibitive. We'd stuck with his pro-rated signing bonus no matter what. His salary this year is $1.9M. I don't know what it is for 2010, but most of the cost of his contract was in the signing bonus. We'd actually lose money by cutting or trading him this year. Next year I think we save a little. It would be worth it to get rid of him, as I think he's a negative impact on the team right now. But if I were Josh McDaniels or Mike Singletary, I think he would be worth a flier. They could trade down to 20 and still get a very good player, while picking up a productive veteran with lots of versatility (and possibly some additional picks).

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To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Jimke

I wish you were making the decisions instead of Bill Belichick. I do believe
that Mankins and Gostkowski will be given high tenders. I also agree that
Light and Thomas will be traded. Wilfork will be franchised and then
traded. Springs will be cut especially since he has been an inactive.

From this point on we disagree. The Patriots will practice cost restraint next preseason. The Patriots will make offers to Watson and Bodden but they
will leave for free agency because the offers are well below market value.
They will re-sign two or three of the players you list as cuts. No high
end free agent will be signed but they will sign half a dozen for the
veteran minimum.

In the draft, the Patriots will select a nose tackle, offensive guard,
and tight end with their early picks. I would not be surprised to see the
Patriots wait until the third or later rounds to select linebackers. I would
not be completely shocked if they drafted no linebackers at all. Drafting
linebackers seems to be a mystery to Belichick.

everlong

No his numbers are much higher for the remaining two years.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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