11/4 Pats' needs positional rankings and big board

[mayoclinic]

Right now I see the Pats having needs at the following areas:

1. OL
2. LB
3. DL
4. RB

Assuming Brandon Tate shows promise at WR, I don't see the Pats taking a day 1 WR or TE this year. DB seems set for the time being, though the long term status of Leigh Bodden may be a factor. QB is not a day 1 need.

With that in mind, right now I like the following players for the Pats at those areas:

OT:

1. Bruce Campbell, Maryland (junior). 6'6" 310#. Best LT prospect since Ryan Clady. With Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain, my top pick for the Pats.
2. Brian Bulaga, Iowa (junior). 6'6" 312#.
3. Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin (junior). 6'7" 325#. Tremendous RT prospect.
4. Kyle Calloway, Iowa. 6'7" 315#. Pure RT.
5t. Jason Fox, Miami. 6'7" 315#.
5t. Jeff Linkenbach, Cincinnati. 6'6" 311#.

OG/C:

1. Mike Iupati, Iowa. 6'6" 330#. Moves like a much smaller man.
2. Maurkice Pouncey, Florida (junior). 6'5" 318#.
3. Mike Johnson, Alabama. 6'5" 305#. A beast with a nasty attitude.
4. Jon Asamoah, Illinois. 6'5" 315#.
5. Zane Beadles, Utah. 6'4" 305#.

RB:

1. Ryan Mathews, Fresno St. (junior). 5'11" 220#. Reminds me of Rashard Mendenhall, with a dash of Donald Brown and a young Fred Taylor.
2. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech (junior). 6' 230#. A young Corey Dillon.
3. LaGarrette Blount, Oregon. 6'1" 230#.
4. Ben Tate, Auburn. 5'11" 220#. Poor man's Ryan Mathews.
5. Toby Gerhart, Stanford. 6'1" 235#. Poor man's Jonathan Dwyer.

Note: I'm not personally in favor of a speed back like Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller. I assume Brandon Tate will be our all-purpose guy.

3-4 DE:

1. Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska. 6'4" 305#. A young Seymour. We won't get within 20 picks of him.
2. Lawrence Marsh, Florida (junior). 6'5" 305#. Could be a younger version of Suh.
3. Jared Odrick, Penn St. 6'5" 305#.
4. Arthur Jones, Syracuse. 6'4" 295#.
5. Adrian Clayborn, Iowa (junior). 6'3" 285#. Very strong and a playmaker.

Note: I don't think Gerald McCoy or Carlos Dunlap are 3-4 DE's for the Pats. Brian Price is on the short side (6'2").

4-3 DE/3-4 Elephant:

1. Greg Hardy, Mississippi. 6'5" 267#. Terrific elephant prospect. A bull, like Jared Allen. Finally healthy again. My co-#1 pick with Bruce Campbell and Rolando McClain.
2. Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech. 6'4" 268#. Incredible motor. Unstoppable. Reminiscent of Shawne Merriman.
3. Everson Griffen, USC (junior). 6'3" 275#+. Amazing athleticism.
4. Jason Pierre-Paul, USF (junior). 6'6" 265#. Incredible upside, but very raw. A young Javon Kearse.
5. Carlos Dunlap, Florida (junior). 6'6" 280#. Inconsistent, but amazing upside.

3-4 OLB:

1. Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma (junior). 6'3" 257#. Combination of Kindle and Hughes. Reminds me of Terrell Suggs.
2. Sergio Kindle, Texas. 6'4" 255#. Very fast and athletic. More athlete than football player. Upside is DeMarcus Ware.
3. Jerry Hughes, TCU. 6'3" 257#. Terrific motor, reminds me of John Abraham.
4. Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech (junior). 6'2" 252#.
5. O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin. 6'2" 248#.

3-4 ILB/4-3 LB:

1. Rolando McClain, Alabama (junior). 6'4" 255#. My co-#1 along with Greg Hardy and Bruce Campbell. In the Aaron Curry mold.
2. Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri. 6'2" 247#. Makes plays all over the field in the style of Patrick Willis.
3. Eric Norwood, South Carolina. 6'1", 252#. Very strong. A playmaker with versatility reminiscent of Adalius Thomas.
4. Brandon Spikes, Florida. 6'3" 253#.
5. Chris Galippo, USC. 6'2" 255#.

This exercise ignores players at other positions as as CB, S, QB, WR and TE, some of whom could be tremendous values (Jermaine Gresham, Dez Bryant, Eric Berry, Taylor Mays, Joe Haden, etc.).

[NePatriots]

Iupati is from Idaho, not Iowa. We (Iowans that is) grow Corn, they (Idahoans) grow potatoes. Dace Richardson, however, is an OG from Iowa that was having an All-American year before breaking his leg last week.

Back to the point, Calloway and Bulaga are both great, and my opinion on Clayborn is well known. Both Bulaga and Calloway have experience with similar screen plays that the Patriots run, and also can run block as good as any tackle in the country. Both have minor injury concerns.

Great work.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by NePatriots

Iupati is from Idaho, not Iowa. We (Iowans that is) grow Corn, they (Idahoans) grow potatoes. Dace Richardson, however, is an OG from Iowa that was having an All-American year before breaking his leg last week.

Back to the point, Calloway and Bulaga are both great, and my opinion on Clayborn is well known. Both Bulaga and Calloway have experience with similar screen plays that the Patriots run, and also can run block as good as any tackle in the country. Both have minor injury concerns.

Great work.

Thanks for correcting the typo on Iupati, who I've discussed in numerous threads. That one went right by me.

[patsfaninpa]

Good work Mayo. Thanks for taking the time to put that together. Would any of us be surprised if we pick a te with one of our 1st four picks? I wouldn't. We have a lot of big questions coming up regarding free-agency. That could dramatically change our needs.
We really need to keep V.Wilfork and L.Mankins. For example, if we lose Vince. Do we go after a NT like Mount Cody? I don't think our T situation is all that desperate. But, If we lose Mankins. G becomes a top priority. Good weekend to check out some college games.
Bama/LSU has a lot of prospects. And, so does PSU/Ohio St. I'm really curious to see Odrick against a good team. He's killed some poorer teams. PSU has played a god-awful schedule.
Want to see him as the season winds down. The Iowa game was played in a Monsoon. Not exactly a good game to get a feel for how a player performs.

[bbell31]

my thoughts have changed recently due to surprising performances but i think we take a ilb/olb/de with our first pick if there is not a value steal like a gresham or suh who's availablt...im uncertain about guard considering we have simmons, connolly, rich o., wendell etc...i think there could b a definite upgrade but duno if we need to draft an olinemen that early i like i recently stated...i pretty much agree with mayo's current views and thoughts on who we should draft..nice work btw mr. mayo...chris hall of texas who has played all the positions on the line is very intriguing..also brody eldrige late in the draft from ou who has played three positions on the line this year..g, c, te.. although, all of the guards you listed are very tempting to take a hard look at if you r bill belichick

[Ochmed Jones]

A couple of thoughts:

1.) on the list of priorities. Why OT?

2.) Are you assuming we resign big vince? Because if he leaves then NT becomes a gaping hole.

3.) Which of our gazillion FAs are you projecting we keep and which are you projecting we lose?

4.) On the DE's I can see the Pats being interested in Oghsobasse of Duke.

5.) Doesn't the funky offense run by GT make projecting Dwyer very difficult? Does anybody know if he can catch or block?

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Ochmed Jones

A couple of thoughts:

1.) on the list of priorities. Why OT?

2.) Are you assuming we resign big vince? Because if he leaves then NT becomes a gaping hole.

3.) Which of our gazillion FAs are you projecting we keep and which are you projecting we lose?

4.) On the DE's I can see the Pats being interested in Oghsobasse of Duke.

5.) Doesn't the funky offense run by GT make projecting Dwyer very difficult? Does anybody know if he can catch or block?

Good thoughts, as I expect from you.

I haven't really addressed the whole offseason plan this early. I am assuming that Wilfork is either extended or franchised for 2010, which is why I didn't have 3-4 DT as a major focus. Also, it is still too early to see where things stand with Ron Brace. Between Brace and Pryor I think we can at least cover the NT position even if we don't manage to keep Vince.

I'm assuming Brandon Tate shows promise as a #3 WR and all-purpose guy, negating the need for a Jahvid Best/CJ Spiller type of back, and for using a high pick on WR. If someone like Eric Decker falls I could see us taking a gamble on him in the mid-late rounds, but I'm not big on the WRs in this draft. I could easily see us using our 2010 1st rounder from Oakland on an eventual successor to Moss (especially if there is a rookie salary cap keeping the cost down), with AJ Green, Michael Floyd, Julio Jones and DeAndre Brown all likely coming out.

Regarding OT, Matt Light's contract is up after 2010 and I don't see him staying on. I can see Vollmer taking over at LT along with Kaczur and LeVoir, but there is certainly room for another OT. A top RT to go along with Vollmer (or a top LT with Vollmer moving to RT) would never hurt. I always feel that there's value developing the OL and DL, and I'd like to see us become more physical on the OL. I do see the interior line as a bigger area of concern right now. I'm guessing that we resign at least one of Mankins/Neal. Mankins is the obvious choice but will cost more, and Neal has been playing well this year. If Mankins is an RFA that makes it fairly easy for 2010.

Regarding FAs, right now I cannot see us resigning Jarvis Green (5.4M cap hit), Kevin Faulk (4M), Stephen Neal (3.4M) or Derrick Burgess (2M) for anything near what they are currently costing. I'd like to see use resign Leigh Bodden, but the cost may be prohibitive. I think Ben Watson stays. I'm guessing Ghost will be tendered as an RFA. Guyton is an ERFA and isn't going anywhere - I hope he gets a long term deal. I'm hoping we can keep Ninkovich and Alexander for low cost, and possibly Woods, but none of those guys is critical. My priorities are Wilfork > Bodden = Mankins > Ghost, in that order, but that's mostly thinking of the top of my head.

I agree projecting Dwyer is difficult. I see Mathews as a better option out of the backfield and a better home run threat, which are two reasons I prefer him at this point.

I agree Oghobasse has to be in any 3-4 DE discussion. Right now I see 3-4 DE's as needed more than 3-4 DTs, particularly as I expect Green to leave. I like a lot of guys who could go later in the draft, such as redshirt sophomores Jared Crick from Nebraska and Matt Conraeth from Virginia if they come out. Corey Wooten from Northwestern may fall as well, and could be a steal if he regains his pre-injury form.

I see this draft as very deep, with better quality at the top than 2009. Because of the depth I really don't see us trading away our day 1 picks, though I assume we will move around. I could actually see us trying to trade to get back into the 3rd round, where some 2nd round caliber guys will fall because of the depth.

[cstjohn17]

Good stuff, jives well with this breakdown from Pats1

Taking a quick peek at 2010

[ctpatsfan77]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Assuming Brandon Tate shows promise at WR, I don't see the Pats taking a day 1 WR or TE this year. DB seems set for the time being, though the long term status of Leigh Bodden may be a factor. QB is not a day 1 need.

Even if Watson leaves?

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by ctpatsfan77

Even if Watson leaves?

I personally don't expect Watson to leave, but that would obviously change things, especially if Jermaine Gresham fell. Gresham is clearly a top talent as a stretch the field TE and could be an amazing weapon, but I see him as redundant with Watson if Watson stays. I'd personally prefer to keep Ben if we can do so and use the pick on another area of need.