11/4 Pats' needs positional rankings and big board

[mayoclinic]

Since this thread has turned into something of a needs/strategy discussion as well, my #1 priority for the Pats for this offseason is upgrading the pass rush. I feel that BB felt that upgrading the secondary was our #1 priority last year, and he did that with a vengeance. I think he will be equally aggressive about the pass rush this year.

I could easily see us using 2 of our top picks on pass rushers. I see players falling into 3 major groups:

1. Guys who are 4-3 DEs who could play the elephant. These are guys in the 6'3"-6'7" and 260-280# range with exceptional athleticism. Julius Peppers and Jared Allen are the pre-eminent current players who could fill that role. I don't see Peppers to the Pats happening at this point. Greg Hardy, Derrick Morgan, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap are the main guys I could see playing that role. Possibly Jeremy Beal.

2. Guys who are DE/OLB hybrids who can rush off the edge, play in space, and set the edge. These are guys around 6'3"-6'5" and 250-260# with 4.55-4.7 speed combining the ability to rush the passer, the athleticism to play in space and pursue, and the strength to play the run and set the edge. DeMarcus Ware is the pre-eminent current example. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes and Jeremy Beal are my top 3 in this category. I don't see speed guys like Ricky Sapp and Von Miller being stout enough to set the edge and play the run in the Pats' system, though they may be very successful elsewhere. I don't think George Selvie is either strong enough or quick enough to play in our system. Jason Worilds, O'Brien Schofield and Lindsey Witten might be lesser choices here. Eric Norwood could fit here, but I see him more as fitting into my third category because of his lack of height.

3. Guys who are college linebackers with the versatility to play multiple positions in both the 3-4 and 4-3. This could be SILB in the 3-4 and SAM in the 4-3, or WILB in the 3-4 and WLB in the 4-3. Aaron Curry and Patrick Willis are the pre-eminent examples of these kind of guys. I currently see Rolando McClain as the #1 guy in this mold (3-4 SILB/SAM, in the Aaron Curry mold). Eric Norwood and Brandon Spikes also fall into this mold. Sean Weatherspoon is more of a Patrick Willis 3-4 WILB/WLB kind of guy.

I think there are probably going to be a lot of these guys available. Many will go out of our reach, but some will fall. If Derrick Morgan and Greg Hardy go early, Carlos Dunlap and Everson Griffen may be available. Rolando McClain probably won't last, but Brandon Spikes and Eric Norwood may. Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes could go top 20, or mid 2nd round, and Jeremy Beal is currently still not on most people's radar.

I would ideally like to see us use 2 of our top picks in this area depending on who is available. Ideally, I could see us using one on a 4-3 DE/3-4 elephant type of player and one on a LB player (either a hybrid DE/OLB or a hybrid 3-4/4-3 LB).

Adding that kind of speed/athleticism and ability to bring pressure from different angles, combined with the stoutness of our DL, the core LBs that we have in Mayo and Guyton, and the secondary continuing to develop, would give us potentially a dominant defense which could wreck havoc and win games by itself. Add that to our offensive capability, and I think we would be very tough to stop.

[Jimke]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Since this thread has turned into something of a needs/strategy discussion as well, my #1 priority for the Pats for this offseason is upgrading the pass rush. I feel that BB felt that upgrading the secondary was our #1 priority last year, and he did that with a vengeance. I think he will be equally aggressive about the pass rush this year.

I could easily see us using 2 of our top picks on pass rushers. I see players falling into 3 major groups:

1. Guys who are 4-3 DEs who could play the elephant. These are guys in the 6'3"-6'7" and 260-280# range with exceptional athleticism. Julius Peppers and Jared Allen are the pre-eminent current players who could fill that role. I don't see Peppers to the Pats happening at this point. Greg Hardy, Derrick Morgan, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap are the main guys I could see playing that role. Possibly Jeremy Beal.

2. Guys who are DE/OLB hybrids who can rush off the edge, play in space, and set the edge. These are guys around 6'3"-6'5" and 250-260# with 4.55-4.7 speed combining the ability to rush the passer, the athleticism to play in space and pursue, and the strength to play the run and set the edge. DeMarcus Ware is the pre-eminent current example. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes and Jeremy Beal are my top 3 in this category. I don't see speed guys like Ricky Sapp and Von Miller being stout enough to set the edge and play the run in the Pats' system, though they may be very successful elsewhere. I don't think George Selvie is either strong enough or quick enough to play in our system. Jason Worilds, O'Brien Schofield and Lindsey Witten might be lesser choices here. Eric Norwood could fit here, but I see him more as fitting into my third category because of his lack of height.

3. Guys who are college linebackers with the versatility to play multiple positions in both the 3-4 and 4-3. This could be SILB in the 3-4 and SAM in the 4-3, or WILB in the 3-4 and WLB in the 4-3. Aaron Curry and Patrick Willis are the pre-eminent examples of these kind of guys. I currently see Rolando McClain as the #1 guy in this mold (3-4 SILB/SAM, in the Aaron Curry mold). Eric Norwood and Brandon Spikes also fall into this mold. Sean Weatherspoon is more of a Patrick Willis 3-4 WILB/WLB kind of guy.

I think there are probably going to be a lot of these guys available. Many will go out of our reach, but some will fall. If Derrick Morgan and Greg Hardy go early, Carlos Dunlap and Everson Griffen may be available. Rolando McClain probably won't last, but Brandon Spikes and Eric Norwood may. Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes could go top 20, or mid 2nd round, and Jeremy Beal is currently still not on most people's radar.

I would ideally like to see us use 2 of our top picks in this area depending on who is available. Ideally, I could see us using one on a 4-3 DE/3-4 elephant type of player and one on a LB player (either a hybrid DE/OLB or a hybrid 3-4/4-3 LB).

Adding that kind of speed/athleticism and ability to bring pressure from different angles, combined with the stoutness of our DL, the core LBs that we have in Mayo and Guyton, and the secondary continuing to develop, would give us potentially a dominant defense which could wreck havoc and win games by itself. Add that to our offensive capability, and I think we would be very tough to stop.

While I agree with you 100%, I wonder if Bill Belichick does. It took

him 9 years to invest a high draft pick in a linebacker.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Jimke

While I agree with you 100%, I wonder if Bill Belichick does. It took him 9 years to invest a high draft pick in a linebacker.

I've completely given up trying to predict what BB will do - it's an exercise in futility. I've sure he will make a few moves which leave us all with our jaws on the floor.

However, with that in mind, I think that he pretty much decided last year that the secondary was unacceptable, and took aggressive steps to fix it. This year the pass rush seems the weakest part of the defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be similarly aggressive. But God only knows what he'll actually do.

[FreeTedWilliams]

It has been BB history to take care of his teams most glaring need BEFORE the draft. The few times that he did enter the draft with a glaring need, luck fell into his lap (Vince, Mayo).

I think any talk of how the Patriots will target in the draft is going to be moot after the Free Agency period. And Any talk of that is going to be hindered by the CBBA discussions.

First off, do the Pats re-sing Wilfork, Green, Neal, Faulk, Mankins, Burgess, Watson, Gostkowski, and Guyton (he might be a RFA).

I say that Mankins, Wilfork, and Gostkowski are the MUST SIGNS. Faulk will come back, but I would hate to see any of the above leave.

Then you have to look at who is going to be a Free Agents: (some names that I think would fit into the Pats system)

Brandon Marshall
Owen Daniels
Julius Peppers (oops theres that name again)
Richard Seymour
Leon Washington
Cadillac Williams

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams

It has been BB history to take care of his teams most glaring need BEFORE the draft. The few times that he did enter the draft with a glaring need, luck fell into his lap (Vince, Mayo).

I think any talk of how the Patriots will target in the draft is going to be moot after the Free Agency period. And Any talk of that is going to be hindered by the CBBA discussions.

First off, do the Pats re-sing Wilfork, Green, Neal, Faulk, Mankins, Burgess, Watson, Gostkowski, and Guyton (he might be a RFA).

I say that Mankins, Wilfork, and Gostkowski are the MUST SIGNS. Faulk will come back, but I would hate to see any of the above leave.

Then you have to look at who is going to be a Free Agents: (some names that I think would fit into the Pats system)

Brandon Marshall
Owen Daniels
Julius Peppers (oops theres that name again)
Richard Seymour
Leon Washington
Cadillac Williams

I understand that the Pats have tried to fill major holes before the draft wherever possibly so that they could draft from a position of strength rather than to fill major needs. However, I think there are some things to suggest that the Pats are much more likely to address some needs this year through the draft, especially in areas such as the pass rush:

(1) The cost of quality pass rushing FAs is prohibitive. Peppers currently makes $1M/game. That simply won't work within the salary structure of this team.

(2) Assuming that the CBA expires and we have an uncapped year, there will be restrictions on playoff teams signing outside free agents. For a brief review of what to expect in an uncapped year see:

Free Agency: What will it be?

There aren't many top pass rushers out there. Jared Allen, Terrell Suggs and DeMarcus Ware are all tied up long term. Shawne Merriman's knees are shot and he's a shadow of his former self. Julius Peppers will be 30 in January and commands a prohibitive contract. And there are a ton of extremely talented pass rushers who will most likely be available in the 2010 draft.

As for your other players, Owen Daniels will likely be tagged by Houston again, and will be too costly. Resigning Ben Watson is far more feasible. Denver is reportedly working on an extension for Brandon Marshall. Leon Washington is coming off of a major injury. Cadillac Williams has been injury prone his entire career. We traded Richard Seymour in part because we didn't expect to resign him, so I doubt we will sign him as a FA, especially when he was pissed off at how we dumped him off to Oakland.

I think this year we focus on resigning as many of our core players as possible, and then filling holes through the draft. Yes, we will probably sign a few relatively low-cost and low-profile FAs, as we always do (and hopefully some will turn out to be pearls like Brandon McGowan), but I don't see us being aggressive in FA this year the way we were in 2009.

[Ochmed Jones]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

I currently see Rolando McClain as the #1 guy in this mold (3-4 SILB/SAM, in the aron Curry mold).

Interesting tidbit out of the Alabama campus in Tuscaloosa. Mark Ingram is asking writers to vote for McClain for the Hiesman.

When it comes to OLB's, I think the only guys that BB would even think about drafting early are the ones that can (in order of priority) tackle, be assignment sound nearly 100% of the time, play smart and diagnose immediately (Instincts), set the edge against running plays, play is space (coverage) and rush the passer.

I think that if BB does not see a player do anyone of these on tape, then he is passing on them in the draft. The only player I have seen this season that even remorely meets these criteria is Sapp of Clemson but I am not 100% sold on him.

[SidelineSid]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Since this thread has turned into something of a needs/strategy discussion as well, my #1 priority for the Pats for this offseason is upgrading the pass rush. I feel that BB felt that upgrading the secondary was our #1 priority last year, and he did that with a vengeance. I think he will be equally aggressive about the pass rush this year.

I could easily see us using 2 of our top picks on pass rushers. I see players falling into 3 major groups:

1. Guys who are 4-3 DEs who could play the elephant. These are guys in the 6'3"-6'7" and 260-280# range with exceptional athleticism. Julius Peppers and Jared Allen are the pre-eminent current players who could fill that role. I don't see Peppers to the Pats happening at this point. Greg Hardy, Derrick Morgan, Everson Griffen, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap are the main guys I could see playing that role. Possibly Jeremy Beal.

I would love for this to happen. I agree with you that pass rush is a huge need. My only concern would be the risk involved with such an investment. If we invest in a guy who specialize at the elephant position, does that mean we'll show more 4-3 over/under looks like Arizona? Also, our team has to figure out if we'll go back to the 3-4 as our predominant base defense?
With that considered, I like your list of prospects except Hardy. The man has the talent, but he has been inconsistent. He has to work on being more consistent. Until he does, I don't know if he's worth that kind of risk.

2. Guys who are DE/OLB hybrids who can rush off the edge, play in space, and set the edge. These are guys around 6'3"-6'5" and 250-260# with 4.55-4.7 speed combining the ability to rush the passer, the athleticism to play in space and pursue, and the strength to play the run and set the edge. DeMarcus Ware is the pre-eminent current example. Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes and Jeremy Beal are my top 3 in this category. I don't see speed guys like Ricky Sapp and Von Miller being stout enough to set the edge and play the run in the Pats' system, though they may be very successful elsewhere. I don't think George Selvie is either strong enough or quick enough to play in our system. Jason Worilds, O'Brien Schofield and Lindsey Witten might be lesser choices here. Eric Norwood could fit here, but I see him more as fitting into my third category because of his lack of height.

The hybrid category has been the sexy pick for the last couple of drafts. Every year, someone chooses a hybrid end as their binky, and every year we get disappointed. The only explanation is the risk associated with the conversion process. We already have two conversion projects on our hands, (Crable and Woods), and we don't know how receptive our coaching staff will be to a third.

We all know it's a risk reward kind of thing, but consider this. The gold standard of conversion projects has been DeMarcus Ware. He is one player I think everyone on this board would love to have. He's a unique player. The problem is that most conversion projects don't end up like Ware. A lot end up like Vernon Gholston.

Why? Because when you break things down, there are a lot of things up against conversion projects. 1.) We run a 3-4, and there are different responsibilities for ends and linebackers in a 3-4. 2.) We run a two gap defense. Most defensive players are used to a one gap defense. The adjustment period between switching from a one gap defense to a two gap defense can be brutal, and many players cannot handle to many checks and nuances of a two gap defense.

3. Guys who are college linebackers with the versatility to play multiple positions in both the 3-4 and 4-3. This could be SILB in the 3-4 and SAM in the 4-3, or WILB in the 3-4 and WLB in the 4-3. Aaron Curry and Patrick Willis are the pre-eminent examples of these kind of guys. I currently see Rolando McClain as the #1 guy in this mold (3-4 SILB/SAM, in the Aaron Curry mold). Eric Norwood and Brandon Spikes also fall into this mold. Sean Weatherspoon is more of a Patrick Willis 3-4 WILB/WLB kind of guy.

I think you struck gold here. This is the position where a lot of possibilities are available. I like Gary Guyton, but if McClain is available, you have to make that move. There is too much talent to pass up that kind of opportunity. We could have McClain play in Guyton's spot, or we could have him play in Adalius Thomas' position. Thomas has been a bit of a disappointment considering him compensation. Another playmaking linebacker could help us in those 3rd down situations that seem to be giving us some trouble.

Regarding Norwood, I haven't seen him play. I'll look out for Witherspoon though. However, I have seen Spikes play and I don't think that he's right for us. That guy has 4-3 written all over him. We could use him in that capacity, but I don't think we want to pull our first round draft choice off the field because we're going to our base defense (I'm projecting a return to the 3-4).

I think there are probably going to be a lot of these guys available. Many will go out of our reach, but some will fall. If Derrick Morgan and Greg Hardy go early, Carlos Dunlap and Everson Griffen may be available. Rolando McClain probably won't last, but Brandon Spikes and Eric Norwood may. Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes could go top 20, or mid 2nd round, and Jeremy Beal is currently still not on most people's radar.

I've seen Kindle play, he has a tendency to disappear at times. Scouts said the same thing about Vernon and look what happened. I'm not saying that they are necessarily the same, but buyer beware.

I would ideally like to see us use 2 of our top picks in this area depending on who is available. Ideally, I could see us using one on a 4-3 DE/3-4 elephant type of player and one on a LB player (either a hybrid DE/OLB or a hybrid 3-4/4-3 LB).

Adding that kind of speed/athleticism and ability to bring pressure from different angles, combined with the stoutness of our DL, the core LBs that we have in Mayo and Guyton, and the secondary continuing to develop, would give us potentially a dominant defense which could wreck havoc and win games by itself. Add that to our offensive capability, and I think we would be very tough to stop.

I've made my comments in bold. I'm projecting that we resign Wilfork, Mankins, and Space Ghost. If we can't, our draft needs drastically change. I say we pay Wilfork, but if Mankins wants us to break the bank, I say let him walk. Elite interior linemen could be attained with a high 2nd round pick and we have a couple of those.

Based on Bodden's play, I think we can be resigned for a reasonable amount. If he can't, oh well. No big deal. Springs, on the other hand, must restructure his contract. That man robbed a bank. There's no way he gets payed like this next year. Average player, but no where worth the kind of cash we are throwing at him. With Weatley struggling and with Springs being less than stellar (and old), a corner could be picked up for very little with a late round pick.

For all the people looking at OT and RB, I say what for. We have invested a good bit of change fairly recently in Volmer and Kaczur. I think Volmer will get better and Kaczur is very under rated. Besides, it makes no sense to upgrade the right tackle position with our first round pick. Even if we use a second round pick, that player is gonna have to be good enough to bump Volmer to right tackle, and Kaczur to the bench. I doubt that's going to happen.

RB's are a dime a dozen. Surprisingly, there will be some interesting free agents this off season. Many running backs, such as Cadillac Williams, will be full of talent and hungry for a ring. We could set ourselves up nicely for very little.

If we get a good inside linebacker, preferably McClain, and a good 4-3 end, I think we set ourselves up nicely. McClain could be used in the 4-3 and 3-4. The 4-3 end could greatly help in those 3rd down passing situations. If the 4-3 end is able to pick up basic pass coverage responsibilities, we can try him out at 3-4 outside linebacker. If not, at least we have a pass rusher.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by SidelineSid

I've made my comments in bold. I'm projecting that we resign Wilfork, Mankins, and Space Ghost. If we can't, our draft needs drastically change. I say we pay Wilfork, but if Mankins wants us to break the bank, I say let him walk. Elite interior linemen could be attained with a high 2nd round pick and we have a couple of those.

Based on Bodden's play, I think we can be resigned for a reasonable amount. If he can't, oh well. No big deal. Springs, on the other hand, must restructure his contract. That man robbed a bank. There's no way he gets payed like this next year. Average player, but no where worth the kind of cash we are throwing at him. With Weatley struggling and with Springs being less than stellar (and old), a corner could be picked up for very little with a late round pick.

For all the people looking at OT and RB, I say what for. We have invested a good bit of change fairly recently in Volmer and Kaczur. I think Volmer will get better and Kaczur is very under rated. Besides, it makes no sense to upgrade the right tackle position with our first round pick. Even if we use a second round pick, that player is gonna have to be good enough to bump Volmer to right tackle, and Kaczur to the bench. I doubt that's going to happen.

RB's are a dime a dozen. Surprisingly, there will be some interesting free agents this off season. Many running backs, such as Cadillac Williams, will be full of talent and hungry for a ring. We could set ourselves up nicely for very little.

If we get a good inside linebacker, preferably McClain, and a good 4-3 end, I think we set ourselves up nicely. McClain could be used in the 4-3 and 3-4. The 4-3 end could greatly help in those 3rd down passing situations. If the 4-3 end is able to pick up basic pass coverage responsibilities, we can try him out at 3-4 outside linebacker. If not, at least we have a pass rusher.

Good thoughts.

Nothing that happened today vs. Miami has affected the pass rush being my #1 offseason priority for the Pats. I still would like to see us use 2 of our top 4 picks in this area, as outlined in my previous post.

I've never been down on Maroney like some, but I see him more as a change of pace and third down guy taking over Faulk's role than as a workhorse RB for us, and even if he is our #1 RB we need depth and youth at the position. I don't think BJGE is more than adequate, and our other RBs are coming up on their mid 30's, which is ancient for the position. Watching Cedric Benson run against the Ravens (we could have gotten him for a song a few years ago) makes me long for someone similar such as 5'11" 220# Ryan Mathews, who can pound the ball inside and make one cut and take it to the house. That and some good old fashioned power blocking on the OL would make a huge difference.

I'd like to see us resign (or tag) Wilfork, Mankins, Ghost, Bodden and Watson. I think Springs is gone after this year and his money goes towards resigning Bodden. If Neal is willing to restructure for decent money I'd like to see that happen as he has played well, but I could see us re-signing Simmons as a cheap replacement and going with youth or the draft as an alternative.

Assuming we do those things (big assumptions, obviously), and that Brandon Tate continues to show promise, I'd spend 2/4 of our picks on the pass rush and 2/4 on the running game (between RB and OL). The only other priority I would have is a 3-4 DE for depth, as I'm not sure Jarvis Green stays after this year. There's a lot of depth at that position, and I could see us trading back into the 3rd round to pick up someone who falls.

[SidelineSid]

1.) Well put. Pass rush is a priority for us. We need to be able to put consistent pressure on oppossing QB's. I'm not entirely sure if it is a lack of speed, or just poor technique, but we have to improve in that area. I don't know if any young 20 something year old will be the key to solving our problems, but we need fresh bodies out there. We just aren't getting it done.

2.) Also, what has surprised me this season is that we haven't been very good against the run. I think we're around 20th in the league after the Miami game. I don't get how we could be so mediocre against the run when we have Wilfork and Warren on the line. Someone has to step up.

3.) After watching the Miami game, I'm a little more possitive about Maroney's chances with the team. His blocking has improved and he is running with more authority. If we can't resign him cheaply, we can find a number of young backs in free agency that can play at a high level.

4.) I'm starting to notice a trend. We tend to run to the right a great deal more than we do to the left. The left side is suppossed to be the better part of line, but I don't think we run that way very often. Let me know if I'm off. I think the best example of this is when Maroney was up against Tennessee, his longest run was to the right. I think he ran behind Stephen Neal on that play.

5.) Ben Watson is really starting to come on strong. I think that he and Brady are starting to really get on the same page. If he can continue to assert himself in the passing game, he can help take some pressure off Welker and Moss. In fact, if we can get Baker more involved in the passing game, we can add a new wrinkle to our offense.

To be honest, we have been a bit predictable at times. It's pretty much been Moss, Welker, and Faulk most of the season. If the tight ends are more emphasized in the passing game, defenses will be forced to take less chances on blitzes. This will mean less blitzing by middle line backers and more conservative safety play. Now we'll be able to dictate the game better. The line backers will have to play closer to the center of the field. More bubble screens for Welker and Faulk!

6.) Is it just me, or did James Sanders' offsides penalty against the Dolphins pretty much sum up his play with the team: No significant contributions except for the other team. His penalty really set up Ted Ginn for a nice return. It could have been very bad. Ginn is a terrible wide receiver. He makes his money by being fast and ellusive. For some reason, fast and ellusive players seem to bring out the worst in Sanders (see Addai, Joseph). Luckly, Space Ghost saved us. Thank you Brandon McGowan for keeping this man on the bench.

[ctpatsfan77]

Originally Posted by SidelineSid

6.) Is it just me, or did James Sanders' offsides penalty against the Dolphins pretty much sum up his play with the team:

Either the Patriots willingly offered $9M/3y for a guy who can't do anything right, or, yes, it is just you.